Continued inflows into US ETFs signal institutional interest, potentially acting as a tailwind for SUI. Short-term risks stem from Bitcoin's consolidation phase and volatility in overall market sentiment. While the RSI indicates an oversold condition, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound, the overall bias remains neutral.

・Continued Inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs The sustained inflow of $3.9 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US over four consecutive weeks suggests growing institutional appetite for Bitcoin. This trend could enhance Bitcoin's liquidity and potentially contribute to price stabilization. As a Layer 1 blockchain positioned after Ethereum, SUI may benefit from increased inflows as institutional interest mounts, driven by recognition of its technological advantages and ecosystem growth. ・UAE Signs onto Automatic Exchange of Tax Data for Crypto Assets The UAE's accession to the OECD's Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) signifies a global movement towards enhanced international tax compliance. This development is expected to bolster transparency in crypto-asset transactions and increase regulatory scrutiny. Consequently, compliance efforts are likely to become paramount within the SUI ecosystem, potentially giving an advantage to projects and services that prioritize regulatory adherence. ・Concerns Over Hyperliquid (HYPE) Token Unlock and Arthur Hayes's Actions Concerns are mounting over potential sell pressure stemming from a planned $11.9 billion token unlock for Hyperliquid's HYPE token. News reports detailing the sale of HYPE tokens by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, reportedly allocating the proceeds to a Ferrari purchase, have sparked market consternation and speculation. The SUI ecosystem might face similar token unlock events in the future, further testing the sustainability and robustness of project economics and tokenomics. ・MicroStrategy's Additional Bitcoin Purchase Following Fed Rate Cut Signals MicroStrategy's acquisition of an additional $99.7 million worth of Bitcoin, potentially timed around perceived Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, underscores a strong conviction in Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and reflects a clear corporate strategy in response to macroeconomic events. For SUI, as a digital asset with potential inflation-hedging properties, such institutional capital movements could be viewed positively. ・Japan's Metaplanet Acquires Large Bitcoin Holdings Japan-based Metaplanet's purchase of $633 million in Bitcoin, establishing it as the world's fifth-largest institutional holder, signals an acceleration of companies incorporating Bitcoin onto their balance sheets. This move cements Bitcoin's position among institutional investors and could potentially have ripple effects across other digital assets. Driven by its innovative technology and scalability, SUI may increasingly be considered for inclusion in similar corporate portfolio strategies. ・Signs of Bitcoin Price "Cycle Exhaustion" and Potential Decline Bitcoin exhibiting signs of "cycle exhaustion," coupled with a potential drop towards the $112,000 level, is exerting corrective pressure on the broader market. This situation has also triggered liquidations of leveraged positions. Such a downturn could impose short-term selling pressure on other altcoins, including SUI. As market sentiment cools, the evaluation of SUI's technological strengths and real-world applications during a potential market recovery phase will be critical. ・Reported Record Number of Suspicious Crypto Transactions in South Korea A report indicating South Korean authorities flagged a record number of suspicious crypto transactions in 2025 suggests heightened regulatory vigilance and progress in anti-money laundering (AML) initiatives. This elevates compliance awareness across the crypto market while signaling stricter crackdowns on illicit activities. Establishing a compliant transaction environment will be indispensable for the SUI ecosystem moving forward. ・OKX Delays Perpetual DEX Launch Amid Regulatory Concerns OKX's decision to postpone the launch of its on-chain perpetual trading platform due to regulatory concerns highlights the critical role of regulatory compliance in the derivatives market. Should similar platforms be developed within the SUI ecosystem, regulatory collaboration and strict compliance adherence will be pivotal for their success. ・Doubts Surrounding "Uptober" Rally and Market Decline Expectations for an "Uptober" rally in October are now in question following a market decline into the red. This indicates prevailing market volatility, which could influence SUI's price action. Macroeconomic uncertainties and shifts in investor psychology create heightened short-term volatility risks for projects in the growth stage, such as SUI. Overall Summary The sustained inflow into US ETFs and corporate Bitcoin acquisitions reinforce institutional trust in digital assets, creating a potentially favorable environment for altcoins like SUI. However, indicators of Bitcoin cycle exhaustion, concerns surrounding large token unlocks, and tightening regulatory measures contribute to overall market uncertainty. Against this backdrop, SUI must maintain its technological edge and ecosystem growth while demonstrating agility in navigating the evolving regulatory landscape.

Concerns over Bitcoin's "cycle exhaustion" and market correction pressures pose downside risks for SUI. The UAE's signing of the CARF and South Korea's suspicious transaction reporting indicate a trend towards stricter regulations, heightening compliance risks. A key support level is the recent low of $3; breaching this level could lead to further declines.

In the short-term (24-48 hours), an oversold RSI suggests a potential minor bounce, but overall market weakness is likely to cap the upside. Medium-term (within the week), should Bitcoin stabilize, SUI could test the $4 resistance level. Conversely, if downside pressure persists, a test of the $3 support level may occur. Key catalysts to watch include development progress within the SUI ecosystem and a recovery in broader Bitcoin market sentiment.

The SUI market currently exhibits a neutral-to-bearish bias, facing a mix of tailwinds from institutional investor interest and headwinds from market correction pressure and regulatory risks. The RSI suggests oversold conditions, hinting at a potential short-term bounce; however, sustained upside hinges on Bitcoin's stability. **Recommendation:** Consider buying on dips in the $2.50-$3.00 range, ideally after confirmation of a Bitcoin bottom. Short-term traders can target profit-taking near the $4 level. Set stop-losses below $2.90 for short-term trades or below $2.50 for long-term positions. Monitor the $3 support and $4 resistance levels, with a break above $4 signaling a potential breakout. Continuously monitor Bitcoin's performance, macroeconomic trends, and SUI development progress, while diligently practicing risk management.