Yesterday's cryptocurrency market experienced downward pressure due to outflows driven by hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve (FRB), geopolitical risks, and concerns surrounding an AI bubble. However, sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and increasing institutional interest in digital assets are bolstering medium-to-long term market strength. The pivotal factors are: 1) substantial outflows, 2) geopolitical tensions and AI bubble concerns, and 3) robust ETF inflows. The market bias is assessed as short-term bearish, transitioning to neutral-to-bullish in the medium-to-long term.

・Bitcoin ETF Options Trading Expands in the US The expansion of Bitcoin ETF options trading in the US, facilitated by regulatory easing from the SEC, is encouraging institutional investor participation and serves as a potential stabilizing factor for Bitcoin prices. Growth in the options market is expected to enhance liquidity and mitigate volatility, anticipating new capital inflows that could support medium-to-long-term price appreciation. ・$200 Million Outflow from Crypto Asset Funds Deteriorating investor sentiment, triggered by hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), has ended a 15-week inflow trend for crypto asset funds, resulting in significant outflows. This capital movement is exerting short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin prices, and selling pressure may persist as long as macroeconomic uncertainties continue. ・Crypto.com CEO Calls for Exchange Investigation Following $20 Billion Liquidation A large-scale liquidation event has heightened market volatility and negatively impacted investor sentiment. Concerns regarding exchange transparency could prompt regulatory intervention, potentially leading to stricter market regulations. This situation represents a short-term destabilizing factor for the market. ・President Trump Announces 100% Tariff on China Increased geopolitical risk is driving capital flight from risk assets generally, and Bitcoin is no exception, facing short-term downward price pressure. However, in the longer term, heightened distrust in fiat currencies might increase interest in Bitcoin as an alternative store of value. ・Galaxy Digital Raises $460 Million for AI Data Center Conversion Galaxy Digital's fundraising efforts for AI data centers suggest a strategic shift in Bitcoin mining infrastructure. This indicates a diversification of digital asset infrastructure and strengthened integration with AI-related technologies, potentially enhancing the sector's long-term growth potential. ・Institutional Investors to Increase Digital Asset Allocation to 16% by 2028 A report by State Street indicates a growing interest among institutional investors in digital assets. This signals increasing confidence in the crypto asset market, including Bitcoin, and suggests future capital inflows that could become a strong driver for medium-to-long-term price appreciation. ・Texas Enacts Bitcoin Reserve Asset Law, Considers Ethereum The state-level initiative in Texas to allow cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to be held as reserve assets enhances their legitimacy in the eyes of regulators and may encourage similar moves elsewhere. This suggests digital assets are increasingly being recognized as alternatives or complements to fiat currencies, fostering greater market confidence. ・Bitcoin ETFs Maintain Weekly Inflows of $2.71 Billion Sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETFs continue to demonstrate firm institutional demand. This reinforces Bitcoin's positioning as "digital gold," serving as a crucial factor supporting price stabilization and a long-term upward trend. ・AI Bubble Concerns? Rising Correlation Between Bitcoin and Nvidia Sparks 80% Plunge Warning The increasing correlation between Bitcoin and Nvidia stock prices underscores the significant impact of the AI boom on the crypto market. Fears of an AI-driven bubble could foster risk aversion across broader asset classes, potentially exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin prices as well. Overall Summary The cryptocurrency market yesterday was marked by heightened geopolitical risks and increased volatility, driven by President Trump's tariff announcement, a major liquidation event, and AI bubble concerns. Conversely, positive developments signaling medium-to-long-term market growth and adoption were also evident, including sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, expanding institutional interest in digital assets, and Texas's reserve asset legislation. While these complex factors make short-term price fluctuations inevitable, regulatory clarity and increased institutional participation are expected to drive the market in the long run. The direct impact on SOL prices remains subject to these macroeconomic and regulatory factors, though improvements in overall market sentiment and the emergence of new use cases could positively influence its trajectory.

Downward risks include continued large-scale capital outflows stemming from hawkish remarks by the Fed, heightened geopolitical risks, and concerns about an AI bubble. These factors contribute to heightened caution towards risk assets across the market, amplifying short-term downward pressure. The key support level is the recent low at $174. A break below this level could trigger further downward pressure. Regulatory investigations and large-scale liquidation events could also serve as catalysts that worsen investor sentiment.

In the short term (24-48 hours), while a modest bounce from oversold RSI levels is anticipated, upside potential is likely to remain limited as long as macroeconomic uncertainties persist. Over the medium term (1 week), continued inflows into ETFs and easing geopolitical tensions are key factors. Positive developments could foster a recovery trend, whereas negative news might lead to a test of the lower range boundary. Key catalysts to watch include Fed commentary, ETF flows, and geopolitical developments.

In conclusion, the current SOL market is under short-term downward pressure. Capital outflows stemming from hawkish remarks by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks, and concerns over an AI bubble are deteriorating market sentiment. While a short-term bounce is possible given the extremely oversold condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 15.0, the upside remains capped as long as macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds persist. The key support level is the recent low of $174, and holding this level is crucial. A clear break below $170 would heighten the risk of further declines, potentially paving the way for a move towards the $150 area. Conversely, should medium-to-long-term positive factors such as sustained inflows into ETFs and increased institutional allocation to digital assets gain traction, the market could enter a recovery phase. Regarding investment strategy, a cautious approach is recommended at this juncture. For those aiming to trade short-term bounces, entries should only be considered upon confirming strong signs of reversal near the $174 support. Strict risk management is essential, with take-profit targets set between $190-$200 and stop-loss orders placed around $168. For a safer approach, waiting for confirmation of a solid uptrend above $200 would be prudent. This week, monitor market movements closely, paying attention to Fed statements, ETF fund flows, and geopolitical news. In terms of risk management, be vigilant regarding the defense of the $170 support level and heightened volatility. Considering these factors, navigate the market with flexibility and discipline to identify opportunities.