
Solana (SOL) Market Analysis: October 1, 2025
2025-09-30
Price
$209.99▼ 1.68%
Summary
Visa's launch of its EURC/USDC pilot, Animoca Brands' equity tokenization, and potential SEC regulatory easing for DePIN signal institutional inflows and expanding use cases within the Solana ecosystem, bolstering strong fundamentals. Our market bias is neutral to slightly bullish, reflecting these positive factors.
Fundamentals
・Visa Launches Stablecoin Pilot for Cross-Border Payments Using USDC and EURC
Visa's initiation of a pilot program for cross-border payments using stablecoins suggests expanding institutional adoption of digital assets. This signifies the evolution of stablecoins from mere speculative assets into practical payment methods, with rising expectations for efficiency gains and cost reductions, particularly in the realm of international remittances. Such moves could encourage broader participation from financial institutions in the crypto market, potentially enhancing overall market liquidity and credibility. While the direct impact on SOL price may be limited, it could accelerate the maturation of the broader crypto ecosystem.
・Web3 Investment Firm Animoca Brands' Shares Tokenized on Solana
The announcement that Republic will tokenize shares of Web3 investment firm Animoca Brands on Solana is a significant case demonstrating progress in the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA). This opens up investment opportunities in the Web3 sector, previously difficult to access, to a wider range of investors. Enabling the trading of shares of prominent Web3 firms like Animoca Brands on the blockchain contributes to the expansion of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and the tokenization market. Its implementation on the SOL blockchain could boost interest in the Solana ecosystem and foster the creation of new RWA projects on the platform, potentially leading to an expansion of SOL's use cases and associated upward price pressure.
・Bitcoin Moves from Decentralized Roots Towards Integration/Securitization
This analysis posits that Bitcoin's original ethos is being transformed into a commercial product by Wall Street and regulators. This "securitization" or "integration" of Bitcoin into mainstream financial markets, while progressing, potentially compromises its core principle of decentralization. While Bitcoin may become recognized as a more stable asset class, this risks diverging from the decentralization principles valued by early investors. This trend could create new investment opportunities for altcoins like SOL, particularly for projects focused on infrastructure and innovation.
・SEC Considers DePIN Tokens Outside Its Jurisdiction
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) indicating a policy to generally consider Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) tokens outside its jurisdiction is welcome news for projects in this sector. It is expected to reduce regulatory uncertainty, thereby promoting development and adoption. DePIN involves building and operating physical infrastructure through decentralized networks, with applications anticipated across broad areas including IoT, energy, and telecommunications. Growth in this sector could create new use cases and demand for associated blockchain platforms, like Solana, known for scalability and low-cost transactions. A positive impact on SOL price is anticipated.
・Potential for 'Aggressive' Price Moves Driven by XRP Whale Accumulation
Analysis suggesting that XRP whale (large holder) accumulation could potentially drive the XRP price up to $4.20 highlights the significant impact large investors can exert on prices within specific altcoins. XRP remains a focus due to the ongoing Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit and its utility as a payment method. Whale activity can serve as an indicator of market sentiment strength. Similarly, SOL, adopted by numerous projects for its scalability and low fees, could see price increases driven by comparable accumulation or positive sentiment from key influencers. XRP's movements might also influence sentiment across the broader altcoin market.
・Circle Partners with Deutsche Börse to Promote Stablecoin Adoption in Europe
The partnership between Circle, the issuer of USDC, and Deutsche Börse aims to accelerate stablecoin adoption and institutional uptake in Europe. This collaboration paves the way for stablecoins like EURC and USDC to integrate into European financial market infrastructure, enhancing their reliability and utility, and promoting broader usage. This initiative is poised to bolster the growth of the digital asset market in Europe and contribute to the overall maturity of the crypto industry. For the SOL ecosystem, the increasing prevalence of stablecoins within a regulated framework indirectly bolsters overall market trustworthiness.
・IoTeX Launches AI Foundry to Build Decentralized AI
IoTeX's launch of AI Foundry, aiming to build decentralized AI, tackles the promising intersection of artificial intelligence and blockchain technology. IoTeX's decentralized approach offers potential solutions to challenges within the AI sector, such as data privacy concerns and reliance on centralized platforms. As AI advancements increasingly demand computational resources, projects like IoTeX providing decentralized infrastructure could gain prominence. In the long term, this could stimulate demand for high-performance blockchains like SOL.
・SEC Halts QMMM Trading, Citing TradFi Concerns
The SEC's suspension of trading for crypto custodian QMMM suggests that concerns over misconduct in traditional finance (TradFi) are extending to crypto-related firms. This poses a potential risk factor to the overall credibility of the crypto market. Investors must remain vigilant regarding regulatory actions, as such moves can negatively impact market sentiment in the short term. Projects like SOL, influenced by the broader regulatory landscape, could see indirect effects on investor risk tolerance due to these developments.
・Akash Founder Warns AI Training Could Trigger Global Energy Crisis
The founder of Akash Network has warned that AI training consumes substantial energy resources, potentially leading to a global energy crisis. This highlights a critical challenge associated with the rapid advancement of AI: the strain on infrastructure. AI's evolution drives demand for computing power, potentially increasing interest in decentralized infrastructure and energy-efficient solutions. Decentralized cloud computing platforms like Akash Network may emerge as viable solutions for meeting AI's computational demands. In the long term, this could enhance the value of blockchain platforms supporting AI-related use cases, such as networks like SOL.
・Base NFTs Outperform in Sales Volume Driven by AI Trading Games
The NFT ecosystem on Ethereum Layer 2 network Base has achieved top sales volume rankings in September, driven by projects such as DX Terminal and BasePaint. The prominent role of AI trading games suggests that the convergence of NFTs and AI technology is creating new market opportunities. Base network's success strengthens its appeal as an alternative solution to Ethereum's scalability challenges. For other Layer 1 and Layer 2 solutions like SOL, Base's success story may serve as an impetus to focus on ecosystem development and the NFT sector.
【Overall Summary】
Visa's stablecoin payment pilot and its partnership with Deutsche Börse signal increasing institutional adoption of digital assets, contributing to enhanced overall market credibility. Meanwhile, the SEC's potential regulatory easing on DePIN tokens and the growing infrastructure demand related to AI suggest future technological innovation and consequent increased demand for blockchain platforms. These trends point towards expanding use cases for high-performance blockchains like SOL, potentially driving price appreciation. However, the overall market is expected to remain highly volatile, shaped by the complex interplay of regulatory developments, macroeconomic factors, and emerging technological trends like AI.
Chart Analysis
Technical Analysis
The RSI is at 53.6, positioned in the neutral zone, indicating no overbought condition.
The MACD has not formed a crossover, providing no clear indication of trend direction.
The price action is contained within the Bollinger Bands, suggesting stable movement within the current trading range.
Overall, the technical indicators lack clear directional signals, suggesting a prevailing range-bound market.
Key Price Levels
Key resistance is at $220, with support at $192.
A clear break above $220 could lead to a rally towards $230 or higher.
Conversely, falling below $192 poses a risk of a drop towards $180. Setting take-profit targets and stop-loss orders around these levels is recommended.
Risk Analysis
The SEC's trading halt on QMMM suggests a contagion risk for the entire crypto industry.
The concept of Bitcoin's "domestication" could impact capital inflows into altcoins.
The key support level is the recent low of $192. A break below this level increases the risk of further downside.
Outlook
**Outlook**
In the short-term (24-48 hours), expect consolidation within the current range, barring any significant news events.
Over the medium-term (next week), positive fundamentals could potentially fuel a breakout, although technical momentum will be crucial for confirmation.
Key catalysts to monitor include updates on Visa's pilot program, DePIN-related announcements, and macroeconomic indicators.
Conclusion
The SOL market stands at a pivotal point, navigating between positive fundamental drivers and neutral technical indicators.
News surrounding Visa, Animoca Brands, and DePIN initiatives points towards ecosystem expansion and enhanced credibility.
Technically, the outlook remains neutral with the RSI at 53.6, the MACD awaiting a cross, and price action consolidating within the $192-$220 range.
Recommended strategies include accumulating near the support zone ($192-$200) or entering on a confirmed breakout above the $220 resistance. Target take-profit levels are between $220-$230, with stop-loss orders set below $190.
The key level to monitor this week is the $220 resistance; a decisive breakout would signal upward momentum. A failure to hold above $192 risks triggering a correction.
It is advisable to closely watch SEC developments, macroeconomic trends, and advancements in AI/DePIN, maintaining a data-driven approach to capitalize on opportunities.
*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Cryptocurrency investments carry high price volatility risks. Please make investment decisions at your own discretion and responsibility.