Continued inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs and Japan's Metaplanet acquiring a significant amount of Bitcoin suggest expanding institutional involvement. Meanwhile, concerns regarding a large unlock event for the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token, coupled with Bitcoin price corrections, are exerting short-term downward pressure on the market. The overall market bias remains neutral.

・Sustained Inflows into US Spot Bitcoin ETFs The consistent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States suggest deepening institutional participation in the Bitcoin market. This potentially bolsters Bitcoin's credibility and adoption, laying the groundwork for long-term price appreciation. Specifically, net inflows totaling $3.9 billion over four consecutive weeks underpin strong market demand and could indirectly benefit other altcoins such as Solana (SOL). As institutional capital flows into Bitcoin, overall market liquidity is expected to improve, potentially boosting the investment appetite for risk assets more broadly. ・UAE Signs Agreement for Automatic Exchange of Crypto Tax Data The United Arab Emirates' adoption of the OECD's Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) marks a significant move towards enhanced international tax compliance within the cryptocurrency market. This initiative is expected to increase regulatory transparency, enabling institutional investors and major corporations to engage with digital assets more confidently. Heightened compliance standards can foster greater maturity in the crypto market overall, potentially leading to wider adoption. This development could also serve as a positive factor for projects like Solana in managing their relationships with regulatory bodies. ・Concerns Over Large Hyperliquid (HYPE) Token Unlock and Arthur Hayes's Movements The impending large-scale unlock of Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens, valued at approximately $11.9 billion, raises concerns about potential oversupply in the market. News that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has sold HYPE tokens further exacerbates these concerns, potentially exerting downward pressure on its price in the short term. While HYPE tokens are active within the DeFi space, this potential supply shock could impact risk sentiment across the entire DeFi sector. Consequently, DeFi projects within the Solana ecosystem may not be immune to indirect repercussions. ・MicroStrategy, Led by Michael Saylor, Acquires More Bitcoin MicroStrategy's further acquisition of Bitcoin demonstrates a strong corporate commitment to Bitcoin treasury strategies. Against the backdrop of temporary Bitcoin price surges potentially linked to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, this move highlights the significant influence of macroeconomic policies on the cryptocurrency market. Such accumulation by major corporate holders can instill market confidence and potentially contribute to price stabilization. This is a crucial factor in solidifying Bitcoin's status as 'digital gold' and can foster positive sentiment across the wider altcoin market. ・Japan's Metaplanet Makes Significant Bitcoin Purchase Metaplanet, a Japanese company, acquiring a substantial 5,419 BTC, making it the fifth-largest corporate holder globally, illustrates the growing trend of Bitcoin adoption by corporations worldwide. The proactive integration of Bitcoin as a treasury asset by Japanese firms aids in the proliferation and enhances the credibility of digital assets within the Asian market. This move may inspire other corporations to pursue comparable treasury strategies, potentially driving further institutional interest in Bitcoin. Projects like Solana should closely monitor these corporate movements concerning expansion within the Japanese market. ・Bitcoin Price Decline to $112,000 and Signs of 'Cycle Exhaustion' Bitcoin's price decline to $112,000, accompanied by the liquidation of $1.6 billion in long positions across the market, indicates signs of overheating and a necessary correction phase. Analysts noting indications of 'cycle exhaustion' potentially signal a short-term bearish trend, which could adversely affect overall market sentiment. This downturn could spill over into the altcoin market, including Solana, causing temporary price declines. However, this correction might also serve as a prelude to a new upward trend. ・Issuance of First Regulated Stablecoin Pegged to Chinese Yuan (CNH) The launch of the first regulated stablecoin pegged to the Chinese Yuan (CNH) signifies the escalating competition in the global stablecoin market. This development could potentially streamline international trade and investment involving China, possibly representing a step towards the internationalization of the digital yuan. The diversification and regulatory oversight of stablecoins are expected to boost the overall credibility of the cryptocurrency market, facilitating greater integration with traditional financial systems. ・OKX Postpones Perpetual DEX Launch Amid Regulatory Concerns OKX has postponed the launch of its perpetual decentralized exchange (DEX) due to regulatory concerns, highlighting regulatory uncertainty within the DeFi sector. While platforms like Hyperliquid have achieved success, this decision reflects increasing scrutiny from regulators. Such regulatory risks pose challenges to the development and deployment of DeFi projects, and platforms within the Solana ecosystem could encounter similar hurdles. ・Binance Co-founder CZ Donates Over $1.3 Million to Charity Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has channeled over $1.3 million in donations through his educational venture, Giggle Academy, with a significant portion reportedly stemming from meme coin activities. This underscores the cryptocurrency community's growing engagement in philanthropic efforts, demonstrating the potential for cryptocurrencies to be leveraged for social impact and serving as a factor in boosting overall community engagement. ・South Korea Detects Record Illicit Crypto Transactions in 2025 South Korean authorities have uncovered a record number of illicit cryptocurrency transactions, indicating intensified regulatory efforts against money laundering and fraudulent activities in the crypto space. Data from the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) reveals that 36,684 Suspicious Transaction Reports (STRs) were submitted by Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) between January and August 2025. While this is a crucial measure for maintaining the integrity of the crypto market, it also points to potential increases in compliance costs and possible transactional limitations for certain users. ・Overall Summary The sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in the US, coupled with significant Bitcoin purchases by major players like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, signal increasing institutional involvement and enhanced market credibility, fostering positive sentiment across the cryptocurrency market, including Solana. Conversely, concerns surrounding the large Hyperliquid (HYPE) token unlock and Bitcoin's price correction introduce potential short-term downward pressure. While the UAE's CARF agreement and the launch of a CNH-pegged stablecoin indicate progress in regulatory transparency and global adoption, OKX's DEX launch delay underscores the persistent regulatory risks in the DeFi sector. Overall, the market appears to be navigating a balance between institutional adoption and heightened regulation as it moves towards further maturity and expansion.

The primary downside risks stem from the impending large-scale unlock of the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token and deteriorating market sentiment caused by Bitcoin's price correction. Furthermore, the delay of OKX's DEX launch and South Korea's crackdown on illicit trading activities amplify regulatory risks in the DeFi sector. Key support levels are situated near the recent low of $217, followed by $200. Breaking these levels may precipitate further declines.

In the short term (24-48 hours), a temporary rebound is expected from oversold levels indicated by the RSI, although concerns surrounding the HYPE token unlock could act as a headwind. Over the medium term (1 week), contingent on Bitcoin's stability and the market's absorption of HYPE unlock concerns, Solana has the potential to establish a recovery trend. Key catalysts to monitor include the progression of the HYPE token unlock, the inflow of additional liquidity into Bitcoin from institutional investors, and the performance of major altcoins.

Overall, the Solana market maintains a neutral bias, characterized by a blend of positive fundamentals, notably increasing institutional involvement, and short-term bearish pressures stemming from the significant HYPE token unlock and potential Bitcoin price corrections. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in oversold territory, yet the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has not yet signaled a clear bullish trend. In the near term, the critical focus is on the $217 support level; a failure to hold this level could trigger a decline towards $200. Conversely, a decisive break above the $252 resistance might improve market sentiment and open the path for further upward movement. Investors are advised to closely monitor the progression of the HYPE token unlock and overall market trends, while refraining from building excessively large long positions. A suggested strategy involves accumulating further positions via dollar-cost averaging (DCA) within the $217-$225 range, with a recommended stop-loss placed below $210. Profit-taking targets are set in the $250-$260 range, anticipating confirmation of a renewed bull market. Ultimately, prioritizing robust risk management, exercising emotional discipline, and maintaining a long-term perspective on market dynamics are paramount.