SHIB has dropped significantly by -21.62% over the past 24 hours, entering an extremely oversold state with an RSI reading of 13.5 and breaking below the lower Bollinger Band. Bitcoin's market direction remains unclear, influenced by the competing forces of potential short-term correction risks and hopes for ETF approval. Based on these elements, SHIB exhibits a bearish short-term market bias, yet the extreme oversold condition hints at the possibility of a recovery rally.

Bitcoin Price Volatility and Analyst Outlook Some analysts suggest a potential downside for Bitcoin (BTC) towards the $118,000-$120,000 range, characterizing it as a temporary correction within a sustained long-term bullish trend. This view is supported by a decrease in Bitcoin futures open interest, indicating a healthy reset, and the Mayer Multiple assessing BTC as nearing "oversold" territory. Furthermore, certain analysts assert that $110,000 has been established as a new support level, projecting potential rallies to $140,000-$150,000 by the end of 2025, with possibilities extending to $180,000. These optimistic forecasts are underpinned by continuous inflows into ETFs and ongoing accumulation by both retail and institutional investors. However, short-term downside risks persist, evidenced by some whale investors building substantial short positions, signaling market overheating and cautioning against a potential short-term price pullback. Ethereum ETF Approval and Solana's Impact The approval of an Ethereum (ETH) ETF could potentially boost ETH's price by expanding institutional access. This is supported by ETH's structurally high on-chain activity, institutional inflows, and catalysts such as the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA). Concurrently, Solana (SOL) may also benefit similarly from ETF approvals and is being watched for its potential to outperform ETH. For SOL to surpass ETH, sustained ETF redemptions, tight hedging, meaningful on-chain utilization, and continued developer community vitality are crucial. SWIFT vs. Ripple: The Cross-Border Payments Arena SWIFT's developing blockchain-based payment system presents a potential challenge to Ripple's (XRP) dominance in cross-border payments. SWIFT aims to leverage its extensive existing messaging network to offer real-time payment solutions that also support tokenized assets. While Ripple leads with its fast and low-cost international remittance solutions using XRP, SWIFT's integration capabilities with its incumbent infrastructure could offer an attractive alternative for institutional players. Regulatory Developments and DeFi's Future A proposed regulatory framework by some U.S. Democratic lawmakers, potentially including DeFi protocols in a "blacklist," poses a significant concern for the DeFi sector. Critics argue this move could lead to the "killing" of DeFi or drive it out of the United States, highlighting the risk of regulatory uncertainty stifling innovation. Conversely, crypto adoption is progressing in other regions, exemplified by South Africa enabling crypto payments across over 650,000 stores. Data Breaches and Security Risks Shuffle, a major crypto betting platform, suffered a user data breach due to a compromise at a third-party customer service provider. This highlights the critical importance of supply chain risk management, as the breach granted access to users' personal information including names, email addresses, phone numbers, and physical addresses. Additionally, the recent attack on Binance co-founder CZ's Google account by suspected state-sponsored hackers (potentially North Korea's Lazarus Group) underscores the risk of cyberattacks targeting prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space. Advancement of Tokenization and Risk Management The emergence of fraudulent schemes involving the tokenization and sale of properties without legitimate ownership underscores the need for appropriate regulations and guardrails in the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA), particularly real estate. A framework for investor protection is essential alongside innovation, as such illicit activities can severely undermine the credibility of the entire RWA sector. Trends in the Crypto Mining Industry Bitdeer is strengthening its self-mining operations amidst softening demand for mining rigs, indicating a strategic shift among hardware manufacturers seeking to maintain competitiveness. Increased Crypto Seizures by Law Enforcement South Korea's National Tax Service is intensifying its efforts to seize cryptocurrency assets, even those stored in cold wallets, targeting tax delinquents. This reflects heightened regulatory scrutiny over efforts to conceal crypto assets from authorities. Discussions on Crypto Taxation Jack Dorsey advocates for introducing tax exemptions for small Bitcoin payments, aiming to foster its adoption as an everyday payment method. This suggests a need for regulatory easing to accelerate Bitcoin's widespread use. Overall Summary Yesterday's cryptocurrency market saw a complex interplay between the risk of short-term price corrections for Bitcoin and the long-term upside potential fueled by the anticipated Ethereum ETF approval. Regulatory developments, particularly concerns surrounding DeFi, alongside security vulnerabilities like data breaches and cyberattacks, continue to act as market destabilizers. However, counterbalancing these risks are signs of broader adoption, including SWIFT's development of blockchain technology and the expansion of crypto payments in regions like South Africa. Moving forward, the macroeconomic environment, the evolving regulatory landscape, and institutional investor activity are expected to be key drivers shaping market direction.

A further decline in Bitcoin, particularly the building of short positions by whales, carries the risk of worsening overall market sentiment and putting pressure on SHIB. News regarding DeFi regulations or data breaches could undermine the credibility of the broader cryptocurrency market and accelerate risk-off sentiment. Key support levels correspond to the major price zones preceding this sharp drop; however, current indicators make a definitive price forecast challenging.

Over the next 24-48 hours, SHIB may attempt a temporary relief bounce from oversold conditions, though volatility is expected to remain high. In the medium term (around 1 week), Bitcoin's price action and ETF-related news will be the primary drivers for the broader market. If the market stabilizes, SHIB is likely to follow suit with a recovery. Notable catalysts include macroeconomic data, SEC developments, and announcements within the SHIB ecosystem.

SHIB is currently in an extremely oversold condition, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound from a technical standpoint. However, significant fundamental headwinds, including uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin, regulatory risks, and security concerns, persist. Consequently, a sustained rally is unlikely unless overall market sentiment improves. The current market bias is assessed as Neutral, as short-term downside risks and the potential for a rebound are currently balanced. As a specific action plan for investors, it is prudent to first await market stabilization and confirm that Bitcoin establishes a clear uptrend. Subsequently, cautiously consider entering long positions when SHIB shows signs of breaking key resistance levels, while strictly setting a stop-loss level (e.g., below the recent low). The medium-term target involves approaching the previous high, contingent on a broader market recovery. However, caution is necessary regarding potential short-term price fluctuations, such as corrections of around 10-15% during this process. Key price levels to watch this week include resistance lines where short-term rebound momentum might falter, and support lines that could halt further declines. Strategic entry and exit points should be determined after confirming breakouts or breakdowns of these levels, and patient entry is crucial. From a risk management perspective, constant monitoring of overall market volatility, and particularly Bitcoin's price action, is critically important. While SHIB-specific news and development updates warrant attention, macro market influences currently appear dominant. We advise readers to maintain composure in this uncertain market environment, capitalize on opportunities, and minimize losses by adhering to data-driven analysis and rigorous risk management practices.