Institutional investor inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, combined with proactive regulatory advancements in jurisdictions like Japan, the UK, and Luxembourg, signal increasing market confidence and suggest potential for future capital inflows. However, regulatory gaps within the EU and a decline in DeFi active wallets indicate challenges tied to market maturation and shifts in user behavior, requiring caution. The overall market bias is currently neutral, as positive institutional interest is offset by uncertainties in regulation and user behavior. Nevertheless, latent bullish factors remain.

Luxembourg State-Backed Fund Invests 1% in Bitcoin ETF Investment by a European public institution in a Bitcoin ETF serves as a key signal of growing trust in crypto assets within traditional finance. This underscores increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin and may foster further capital inflows. The emergence of a public entity as a notable Bitcoin holder is anticipated to bolster market stability and solidify the basis for long-term price growth. Europe's Digital Asset Regulation Faces Transferability Blind Spots Concerns have been raised that the EU's MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) regulation might not sufficiently address digital assets with non-transferable characteristics, such as private company equity or bespoke revenue-sharing agreements. This potential gap could impede the tokenization and trading of these assets, thereby limiting the growth of the digital asset market within the EU. Failure to clarify these regulatory aspects risks suppressing innovation and slowing the adoption of specific digital assets. Bank of England Enhances International Cooperation on Crypto Regulation The Bank of England is highlighting the significance of global regulatory coordination, with a particular focus on establishing frameworks for stablecoins and Decentralized Finance (DeFi). This effort targets the stabilization of the global crypto market and investor protection, aiming to minimize regulatory gaps and arbitrage opportunities through enhanced cooperation among international authorities. Achieving greater regulatory harmonization is expected to contribute to the creation of a more secure and transparent cryptocurrency ecosystem. Japan's New Prime Minister Signals Support for Crypto Economy and Regulatory "Refinement" Indications that Japan's new Prime Minister favors revitalizing the crypto economy and "refining" blockchain regulations suggest potential for Japan to emerge as a global hub in the digital asset sector. This shift could foster a more advantageous business environment for both domestic and international crypto firms, stimulating innovation. Enhanced regulatory clarity and improved investment conditions are anticipated to attract fresh capital and drive market expansion. DeFi's TVL Reaches Record High Amidst Declining Active Wallets During the third quarter of 2025, the Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols achieved a record peak, even as the count of daily unique active wallets saw a reduction. This trend indicates a growing concentration of assets within the DeFi ecosystem, potentially alongside a decrease in the frequency of routine user activity. The increase in TVL might signal growing participation from institutional and high-net-worth investors, whereas the decline in active wallets could suggest reduced engagement from retail users or a reallocation of capital to potentially higher-yielding opportunities elsewhere. Coinbase Re-launches Staking Services for New York Residents Coinbase has secured approval from New York state regulators to offer staking services for assets like Ethereum and Solana, enabling users to earn rewards. This development signifies progress in the U.S. regulatory landscape for crypto and an expansion of service offerings by key industry participants. It presents enhanced yield opportunities for New York residents and supports the broader adoption and mainstream integration of cryptocurrencies. Increased regulatory clarity in the U.S. is expected to unlock further growth avenues for major exchanges such as Coinbase. Bitcoin Witnesses Net Buy Volume Recovery, Indicating Underlying Liquidity Bitcoin's net transfer volume has rebounded from deeply bearish territory to neutral levels. Both on-chain and market data indicate controlled profit-taking rather than panic selling, suggesting market stabilization and preparation for potential further upside. This points to investors maintaining a long-term outlook on Bitcoin, remaining resilient to short-term fluctuations, thereby supporting prospects for sustained price growth. XRP Price Poised for Potential Breakout Above $3 Analyses indicate that improving investor sentiment towards XRP ETFs, coupled with accumulation by whale entities, is providing support to XRP's price. This suggests a possible conclusion to its short-term downtrend and a potential transition into an uptrend. A decisive break above the $3.30 resistance level could catalyze substantial price gains, driven by XRP's perceived technological strengths and heightened institutional interest. Overall Summary The expansion of Bitcoin ETF options trading in the U.S. and the investment by Luxembourg's state-backed fund indicate heightened institutional confidence and interest in the crypto market, anticipating greater stability and inflows. Conversely, developments such as potential regulatory gaps regarding transferability in Europe, and the contrasting trends of increasing DeFi TVL alongside decreasing active wallets, point towards challenges inherent in market maturation and evolving user behaviors. Furthermore, the policy direction indicated by Japan's new Prime Minister and Coinbase's restart of staking services in New York illustrate ongoing regulatory advancements and market expansion initiatives globally, suggesting potential for sustained growth and diversification across the cryptocurrency landscape.

Oversights regarding non-transferability within the EU's MiCA regulation, alongside a decreasing DeFi user base, suggest risks of stifled innovation and diminished market liquidity. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) being at the lower bound of the overbought territory may provide some buffer against sharp short-term declines, deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and regulatory tightening increase the downside risks. Notably, maintaining the key support level (specific price level undetermined) is crucial, and a breach below it warrants caution regarding further potential drops.

Short-term (24-48 hours): Given the RSI nearing the lower bound of its overbought territory and the prevailing range-bound market, we anticipate a period of consolidation, potentially attempting a slight upward trend. Medium-term (1 week): Market sentiment may be influenced by institutional investor flows and regulatory developments. While positive news could trigger a breakout, persistent uncertainty points towards the continuation of the current range-bound trading. Key catalysts to watch include developments regarding US ETFs, regulatory clarification in Japan and Europe, and significant new inflows into the DeFi sector.

Overall, the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs and proactive governmental stances are enhancing market credibility and signaling potential future capital inflows. These represent positive fundamental factors contributing to market stabilization. However, regulatory blind spots within the EU and a decline in DeFi user numbers indicate challenges accompanying market maturation and potentially waning retail interest, posing a risk of stifled innovation that warrants consideration. Current technical indicators are neutral, exhibiting no clear trend. Consequently, the market bias is assessed as neutral. As an investment strategy, it is crucial to avoid short-term entries and adopt a long-term perspective, closely monitoring institutional movements and regulatory developments. Consider small-scale entries near key support levels (which remain uncertain) or buying on clear breakouts, managing risk by setting strict stop-loss levels. This week, attention should be paid to signs of range breakouts or breakdowns, as well as macro-economic indicators and announcements from regulatory bodies. A strategy focused on capturing structural market shifts, executed with disciplined information gathering and thorough risk management, will be key to success in this dynamic market.