Executive Summary: The approval of cryptocurrency payments in Ohio and the development of MiCA-compliant stablecoins in Europe serve as long-term tailwinds for XRP. However, a slowdown in Bitcoin ETF inflows and Ethereum liquidations are heightening short-term market volatility, underscoring a risk-off sentiment. While XRP has recently declined, its RSI is approaching oversold levels. The market bias is neutral.

・Ohio Approves Crypto Payments for State Services Ohio's approval of a vendor to process cryptocurrency payments for state services signals an expansion of official digital currency adoption in the U.S. and suggests a shifting stance from regulators. This opens potential new use cases, particularly for payment-focused cryptocurrencies like XRP. Future adoption by other states or at the federal level could increase the legitimacy of cryptocurrencies, further encouraging institutional investor participation. ・Ethereum (ETH) Price Dips Below $4,000, Triggering $36.4 Million in Liquidations The significant liquidations experienced by major Ethereum traders highlight the market's high volatility and the risks involved, especially in leveraged trading. While the sharp decline in ETH price may temporarily dampen overall market sentiment, this appears to be a short-term correction with limited direct impact on other altcoins like XRP. However, a worsening overall market sentiment could indirectly slow capital inflows into XRP. ・Nine Major European Banks to Develop MiCA-Compliant Euro Stablecoins The development of Euro stablecoins compliant with Europe's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) represents a significant step towards regulatory clarity for digital assets in Europe, likely spurring institutional adoption. This initiative enhances stablecoin reliability and contributes to the overall stability of the crypto ecosystem. XRP, with its payment functionality and focus on regulatory compliance, may benefit from the establishment of such regulatory frameworks. ・Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs Slow Down The slowdown in institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs suggests growing caution regarding market overheating and potential macroeconomic uncertainties. This could exert short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. While the direct impact on XRP is minor, a cooling of overall market sentiment might reduce investment appetite for risk assets broadly, potentially affecting inflows into XRP as well. ・Decentralized Exchange (DEX) Perpetual Trading Volume Hits Record $70 Billion The record surge in perpetual trading volume on Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) indicates the growth of the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) market and rising demand for more sophisticated financial products. This trend could reduce reliance on centralized exchanges and accelerate the shift towards a more open and transparent financial system. Although XRP is not primarily traded on DEXs, the expansion of the DeFi ecosystem contributes to overall crypto market activity, potentially boosting interest in XRP consequently. ・Circle Considers "Reversible" USDC Transactions to Recover Funds from Fraud or Hacking The news that major stablecoin issuer Circle is considering the possibility of reversing USDC transactions to recover funds lost to illicit activities or hacks challenges the fundamental principle of "transaction finality" in cryptocurrencies, sparking controversy. Enabling such actions under centralized control is likely to face backlash from the crypto community that prioritizes decentralization. For projects like XRP, which possess more centralized elements, this could signify potential alignment with regulators and traditional financial systems, while also potentially diverging from decentralization ideals. ・Australia Drafts Bill to Strengthen Oversight of Crypto Exchanges Australia's drafting of legislation to enhance oversight of cryptocurrency service providers reflects a global trend towards increased cryptocurrency regulation and stricter supervisory frameworks. While this aims to bolster investor protection and market integrity, it may also limit the activities of certain operators. For projects like XRP, which aim to integrate with the traditional financial system, a clear regulatory environment could lower barriers to entry. ・U.S. Senate Committee to Discuss Crypto Taxation Issues Next Week The U.S. Senate Committee's upcoming discussion on cryptocurrency taxation issues signals further progress in the U.S. regulatory landscape. Clarification of tax treatments could make it easier for both retail and institutional investors to engage with the crypto market. Clearer tax handling for XRP could potentially attract broader investor interest. ・Nansen Releases AI Agent for Crypto Traders, Aiming for Autonomous Trading in Q4 The release of an AI agent for crypto traders by the crypto intelligence platform Nansen demonstrates the increasing application of AI technology in analyzing and executing cryptocurrency trades. This could drive trading efficiency and sophistication, potentially enhancing market liquidity. Advances in AI-driven trading analysis may also be leveraged to predict the performance of individual cryptocurrencies like XRP and analyze broader market trends, aiding trader decision-making. 【Overall Summary】 The previous day's cryptocurrency market action was characterized by significant regulatory developments—including Ohio's approval of crypto payments, strengthened Australian regulations, the development of MiCA-compliant stablecoins in Europe, and upcoming U.S. Senate discussions on taxation—alongside robust activity in the DeFi sector, marked by record DEX trading volumes. Conversely, the slowdown in Bitcoin ETF inflows and substantial liquidations on Ethereum indicated prevailing market volatility and the possibility of corrections. These movements collectively suggest the cryptocurrency market is maturing, navigating a phase where regulation and technological innovation interact to foster wider adoption and deeper institutional involvement.

Ethereum liquidations and the slowdown in Bitcoin ETF inflows highlight overall market volatility and risk aversion. This carries the risk of slowing down inflows into XRP, potentially creating downward pressure. Circle's consideration to revoke USDC is a point of concern due to its divergence from the decentralization ethos. Short-term support is found around $2.80.

In the short term (24-48 hours), a rebound near the $3 mark is anticipated, considering the oversold levels on the RSI and the break of the Bollinger Bands. However, the upside is likely to be limited due to the overall bearish market sentiment. Over the medium term (1 week), the US Senate's tax discussions serve as a key catalyst. Positive news could trigger a rally, while uncertainty may lead to range-bound trading.

Overall, while XRP faces short-term bearish technical indicators, its long-term fundamentals remain positive. Despite high market volatility, the RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a limited rebound. As an investment strategy, we recommend waiting for a clear break above $3 or confirmation of consolidation around the $2.80 level. Consider entries upon a confirmed re-break of $3 targeting the $3.20 level, with a stop-loss set below $2.80. Key support for the week is at $2.80, with resistance at $3.30. Strict risk management and patience for clear entry signals are crucial for success.