Significant inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate robust institutional demand and restored confidence, poised to strengthen the market's foundation in the medium to long term. The expansion of the stablecoin market and trends towards regulatory easing could potentially lower barriers to entry, fostering wider participation. While the overall market bias remains 'Neutral', we maintain a cautiously optimistic perspective, supported by positive fundamental factors.

・Massive Inflows into US-listed Bitcoin ETFs In the week commencing October, hundreds of millions of dollars flowed into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. This indicates persistent institutional demand for Bitcoin and anticipation of price appreciation. Historical data suggests October tends to be a strong month for the crypto market, and these inflows could catalyze further upside for Bitcoin's price. In the medium to long term, steady inflows via ETFs are expected to form a foundational base supporting Bitcoin's value. ・Stablecoin Market Cap Surpasses $300 Billion The total market capitalization of stablecoins has exceeded $300 billion, achieving 46.8% year-to-date growth. This signals heightened capital flow into the cryptocurrency market, suggesting investors are utilizing stablecoins as a safer asset class while potentially positioning for subsequent investments in altcoins or Bitcoin. This trend is expected to enhance overall market liquidity and contribute to the revitalization of the broader crypto ecosystem. The potential for liquidity provision by AI agents also points towards future market efficiency gains. ・UK Set to Lift Ban on Crypto ETN Offerings for Retail Investors The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is expected to lift the ban on offering cryptocurrency Exchange-Traded Notes (ETNs) to retail investors. This move will allow UK retail investors access to cryptocurrency-related investment products previously unavailable to them, signifying an expansion of crypto investment opportunities within Europe and potentially boosting overall market liquidity. However, unlike ETFs, ETNs carry issuer credit risk, necessitating caution from an investor protection standpoint. ・Major Financial Institutions like JPMorgan and Citigroup Raise Year-End Bitcoin Price Targets Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Citigroup, have revised their year-end price targets for Bitcoin upwards, projecting a range between $133,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025. These forecasts are based on factors such as sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and an increasing correlation with gold. Such bullish outlooks from institutional players could enhance market confidence and attract further investment. Notably, the increased participation of institutional investors via ETFs may also contribute to maturing Bitcoin's price discovery mechanism and potentially suppress volatility. ・Sam Bankman-Fried Discusses FTX Collapse's Biggest Mistake Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried stated that the biggest mistake leading to FTX's collapse was ceding management control to a new CEO before filing for bankruptcy. This serves as a stark reminder to market participants, through a high-profile exchange failure case, of the critical importance of risk management. The FTX saga has also impacted the credibility of the broader cryptocurrency industry, potentially prompting increased regulatory scrutiny and the development of more stringent compliance frameworks. ・Potential SEC Regulatory Easing and Trends in Crypto ETFs The massive inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs can be interpreted as a sign that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may be adopting a more favorable stance towards the cryptocurrency market. Coupled with the UK's move to lift its ETN ban, this suggests a global trend towards regulatory easing might be underway. Such improvements in the regulatory environment are crucial for future market expansion, as they lower barriers to entry for both institutional and retail investors. ・Shifting Investment Strategies in Crypto Venture Capital Venture capital investment strategies in the crypto space are shifting from chasing "narratives" to prioritizing fundamental value. This indicates a cooling down from previous overheated market conditions, leading to a greater emphasis on selecting sustainable projects. Such a strategic change is fostering the emergence of ventures with long-term growth potential, resilient to short-term trends, and contributing to the overall market's maturation. ・Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Likely to Continue Executives at Gemini suggest that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is likely to persist in some form. This implies that historically significant events, such as halving events which have influenced price fluctuations, will continue to occur. While this may serve as a useful reference for investors employing cyclical strategies, it's important to note that as the market matures, future cycles may not unfold exactly as they have in the past. ・Coinbase Applies for Trust Company Charter with US OCC Coinbase's application for a trust company charter with the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) signifies a move to strengthen its engagement with US regulators and aims to offer a broader spectrum of financial services. This potential expansion could enable Coinbase to provide services more aligned with traditional financial institutions, beyond its current role as a cryptocurrency exchange platform. It represents a significant step for crypto firms seeking to scale their operations within established regulatory frameworks and could influence other industry players. ・Vietnam Central Bank Projects 20% Credit Growth in 2025 Amid Crypto Adoption Amidst the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies, the State Bank of Vietnam forecasts a credit growth rate of approximately 20% for 2025. This projection suggests increasing acceptance of cryptocurrencies within Vietnam, potentially stimulating the regional economy and leading to capital inflows into the global crypto market. Vietnam's stated intention to legalize cryptocurrencies by June 2025 is expected to further support this trend. ・Ethereum Foundation Exchanges 1,000 ETH for Stablecoins for R&D Funding The Ethereum Foundation has exchanged 1,000 ETH for stablecoins, designating these funds for research, development, and grants. This move demonstrates the Foundation's commitment to the sustained development of the Ethereum ecosystem. While the ETH sale might exert minor short-term selling pressure on its price, it is expected to foster technological innovation and ecosystem expansion in the long run, potentially contributing to ETH's value appreciation. Overall Summary The substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the expansion of the stablecoin market indicate a restoration of confidence and increased capital flow into the cryptocurrency sector, positively impacting the market overall. Progress in regulatory frameworks, such as the UK's ETN ban lift and Coinbase's trust charter application, is expected to further encourage institutional participation. Conversely, venture capital's shift towards a more cautious, fundamentals-focused investment approach, informed by past failures, alongside discussions on Bitcoin's four-year cycle, highlights the maturing market and the heightened importance of risk management. These factors are expected to interact, shaping a market that, while continuing to experience volatility, is likely charting a medium to long-term growth trajectory.

Lessons learned from the FTX collapse indicate that unexpected regulatory tightening or a resurgence of credit risk concerns at major exchanges could pose downside risks. Breaking below the current market price of $4 could trigger further declines. Additionally, low volatility should not be overlooked, as it could potentially signal an impending sharp sell-off, warranting caution.

In the short term (24-48 hours), consolidation within the current range is expected to persist. For the medium term (one week), sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, coupled with the launch of ETNs in the UK, possess the potential to catalyze an upward market breakout. Key catalysts to watch include signs of further regulatory easing from the SEC and announcements of new institutional adoption.

Strong fundamentals, including substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the expansion of the stablecoin market, indicate significant medium-to-long-term growth potential. While maintaining an overall neutral stance, a slightly bullish bias is recommended. For investment strategy, a 'wait-and-see' approach is advised. Monitor for consolidation within the $4 range and await a clear breakout above $5. Entries should be considered only after confirming the breakout, with profit targets set between $5-$6 and stop-losses placed below $4 to manage risk effectively. This week, pay close attention to the pace of ETF inflows and regulatory developments. Recognize that the current quiet phase near the $4 level could be a period of preparation for future volatility. Explore strategic investment opportunities with optimism.