Global cryptocurrency adoption, exemplified by Singapore and the UAE, alongside institutional interest in areas like derivatives and national implementation, is fueling market growth. While the diversification of onboarding beyond Bitcoin and the rise of new Layer 1 (L1) blockchains indicate ecosystem maturity, challenges with launchpads and market risks necessitate caution. Market bias is neutral, and a prudent approach is recommended.

・Singapore, UAE are the ‘most crypto-obsessed’ countries A survey identifying Singapore and the UAE as the 'most crypto-obsessed' countries suggests significant advancements in cryptocurrency penetration and adoption within these regions. Notably, Singapore leads globally in search activity, with 24.4% of its population holding cryptocurrencies. This trend could catalyze accelerated investment in crypto-related infrastructure and regulatory frameworks in these nations, potentially driving the growth of the overall global crypto market. While some signs resemble the hype of the Dotcom bubble era, close monitoring alongside regulatory developments is essential. ・Cathie Wood: Hyperliquid ‘reminds me of Solana in the earlier days’ Cathie Wood of ARK Invest's comparison of the Layer 1 blockchain Hyperliquid to Solana's early stages suggests the emergence of a promising new blockchain technology. Her reference to Solana's past growth potential implies that Hyperliquid might eventually rival established major blockchains. This signifies a diversification of the Web3 ecosystem and an acceleration of technological innovation, potentially boosting investment in foundational platforms. However, past successes do not guarantee future outcomes; technical feasibility and ecosystem growth remain critical factors. ・Options and derivatives to take Bitcoin to $10T market cap: Analyst Market analysts predict that derivative products, such as options and futures, could propel Bitcoin's market capitalization to $10 trillion. The expansion of the derivatives market is expected to encourage institutional investor participation and contribute to market stabilization by curbing volatility. This suggests Bitcoin could be increasingly recognized as a more mature asset class, potentially attracting new capital inflows. However, the complexity inherent in derivatives markets can pose risks for some investors, underscoring the importance of market transparency and robust regulatory frameworks. ・Bitcoin now just one of many ways for retail to onboard to crypto A CoinGecko study revealing that only 55% of new cryptocurrency investors made their initial purchase Bitcoin indicates a maturing and diversifying crypto market. This suggests Bitcoin is no longer the sole gateway, with growing interest in altcoins and alternative Layer 1 solutions. Consequently, market competition is intensifying, creating a broader range of investment opportunities. On the other hand, a decreased reliance on Bitcoin might relatively diminish the impact of its individual price movements on the overall market. ・Nation-state Bitcoin adoption to enter 'suddenly' phase soon: Samson Mow Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, predicts that nation-state Bitcoin adoption will soon enter a 'sudden' phase. This implies an acceleration in countries acquiring Bitcoin as strategic reserves. Such adoption could enhance Bitcoin's legitimacy and spur further institutional investment. However, significant state holdings also carry risks of market manipulation and raise questions regarding the principle of decentralization. As noted by an OKX executive, potential sell-offs by nations holding large amounts of Bitcoin could significantly impact the market, necessitating close observation of these developments. ・From coffee shops to airlines: Who accepts Bitcoin, Ether and XRP in 2025 As of 2025, the acceptance of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP payments spans a wide range of sectors, from coffee shops to airlines. This widespread adoption demonstrates expanding cryptocurrency use cases and increasing real-world utility. It has the potential to accelerate crypto proliferation, encouraging more individuals to use digital assets in daily life. The role of payment processors is also crucial, facilitating easier integration for small and medium-sized businesses. This trend may strengthen the position of cryptocurrencies as functional mediums of exchange and contribute to price stabilization. ・Web3 launchpads are funding ideas, not products The observation that Web3 launchpads are funding ideas rather than validated products highlights current challenges in the Web3 fundraising landscape. Many projects launch without sufficient vetting, often prioritizing short-term gains over long-term viability. This presents increased risks for investors. While the underlying infrastructure is evolving, mechanisms for identifying high-quality projects appear insufficient, necessitating more rigorous due diligence from investors. 【Overall Summary】 As of September 28, 2025, the cryptocurrency market exhibits signs of growth and maturation, evidenced by widespread adoption in regions like Singapore and the UAE, notable interest in new blockchains highlighted by Cathie Wood, and increased institutional participation facilitated by the expanding derivatives market. Conversely, challenges with launchpads and risks associated with nation-state Bitcoin adoption are also noted, requiring continued attention to market volatility and regulatory developments. Overall, while cryptocurrencies are expanding their real-world use cases, balancing technological innovation with effective risk management remains crucial for their sustained, healthy growth.

The focus on idea-stage funding via Web3 launchpads can pose a downside risk due to concerns regarding project quality. Caution is also advised regarding market manipulation risks associated with national adoption, and potential overheating akin to the Dotcom bubble. Support lies around the $4 level, but macroeconomic and regulatory trends are also key factors to monitor.

**Outlook** In the next 24-48 hours, we expect continued neutral price action due to a lack of clear breakout signals. Over the medium term (1 week), market sentiment, major adoption news, and Layer 1 (L1) technological advancements could serve as catalysts for a range break. Specific progress in national adoption and announcements of promising L1 projects are worth monitoring.

Today's DOT market is expected to trade within a range, reflecting neutral sentiment indicated by technical indicators. While positive factors such as adoption in Singapore and UAE, derivatives market expansion, and potential state-level adoption exist, challenges in idea-stage fundraising on Web3 launchpads raise concerns regarding project sustainability. Furthermore, macroeconomic and regulatory trends present additional risks. The investment strategy recommends a cautious, wait-and-see approach for the time being, while identifying short-term trading opportunities. Specifically, consider entering long positions on a breakout above $4.20 or buying on pullbacks towards $3.80. Take-profit targets are set between $4.50-$4.75, with stop-loss orders positioned near $3.50. This week, monitoring the price action around the $4.20 and $3.80 levels is crucial, and waiting for definitive breakout or breakdown signals is the prudent course of action. Looking long-term, the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to evolve through diversification and the expansion of real-world use cases, building a foundation for sustainable growth. However, success hinges on striking a balance between understanding inherent risks and embracing technological innovation alongside robust risk management. It is essential to stay informed on the latest market and regulatory developments and to make prudent investment decisions independently and at your own risk.