Growing participation by institutional investors, ongoing innovation within Decentralized Finance (DeFi), and progress in the tokenization of traditional financial assets underpin the future potential of DOT. While the MACD suggests a bullish crossover, the RSI is in neutral territory, indicating a neutral market bias that is cautiously optimistic.

On September 26, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is focusing on several significant news developments. Notably, institutional investor activity, regulatory changes, and technological innovations may impact the overall market and specifically the price of DOT (Polkadot). Below, we select 5-10 key news items from this period and analyze their potential effects on DOT's price. ・Expansion of Bitcoin ETF Options Trading in the US The SEC's approval of new listing standards for commodity-based trust shares could expedite the listing process for spot cryptocurrency ETFs, thereby facilitating institutional entry. This may serve as a stabilizing factor for Bitcoin prices, while the expansion of the options market is expected to enhance liquidity and potentially reduce volatility. As a leading Layer 1 platform following Ethereum, the growth of the ETF market could indirectly stimulate interest and capital inflow into the DOT ecosystem. ・BlackRock Files for Bitcoin ETF Using Covered Call Strategy The application by major asset manager BlackRock for an ETF offering yield through a covered call strategy on Bitcoin futures suggests that institutional investors are diversifying their Bitcoin revenue generation methods. This could introduce new investment avenues for Bitcoin and enhance market maturity. Amid growing interest in staking and DeFi (Decentralized Finance) within the DOT ecosystem, such institutional pursuit of yield could indirectly boost capital flow towards DOT's staking rewards and DeFi protocols. ・Hashdex Expands ETFs Including XRP, SOL, XLM Following SEC Listing Standard Changes Hashdex's expansion of its ETF offerings to include XRP, SOL, and XLM, following the SEC's adjustment of general listing standards, highlights the influence of regulatory shifts on ETF composition. This indicates a potential for a wider range of altcoins to be incorporated into institutional portfolios, a trend from which DOT could also benefit in the future. Particularly, if DOT can attract institutional interest through advancements in its Cross-Chain Message Passing (XCMP) protocol and ecosystem growth, its inclusion in ETFs could become a possibility. ・China Opens Digital Yuan Hub in Shanghai, Promoting Cross-Border Blockchain Services The People's Bank of China's establishment of a new operational center for the Digital Yuan (e-CNY) in Shanghai, aimed at promoting cross-border payments and blockchain services, is noteworthy as a move towards the international adoption of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). The expanding international use of e-CNY could broaden the role of digital assets within the global financial system. DOT, leveraging its strengths in interoperability, could potentially play a role in future collaborations with CBDCs like e-CNY and in cross-border payment solutions. ・Aave to Release V4 Upgrade in Q4 2025, Introducing Modular Lending Markets and More The planned V4 upgrade for leading DeFi platform Aave in Q4 2025 signifies ongoing technological innovation in the DeFi sector. The introduction of modular lending markets and enhanced risk management features is expected to improve DeFi's efficiency, flexibility, and security, potentially driving broader user adoption. DeFi protocols within the DOT ecosystem (e.g., protocols on Acala, Moonbeam) are also anticipated to benefit from this overall evolution in DeFi, fostering further growth. ・Aster Compensates Traders for Losses from XPL Perpetual Glitch Aster, a decentralized exchange (DEX) on BNB Chain, compensated traders for losses incurred due to a glitch in the XPL perpetual market. This prompt action is crucial for ensuring DEX reliability and maintaining trader trust. Similarly, for the DOT ecosystem, it is vital that its DEXs and DeFi protocols offer secure and dependable services to support the overall development of the ecosystem. ・UK Finance Launches Pilot Project for Tokenized Sterling Deposits with Six Major Banks UK Finance's pilot project for tokenized sterling deposits, in collaboration with major banks, demonstrates progress in the tokenization of traditional finance (TradFi) assets within the UK. This suggests the potential for tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWAs) to enhance financial market efficiency, which could provide a tailwind for DOT's RWA-related projects (e.g., collaborations with Centrifuge). ・Solana Potentially Triggering an 'Institutional Moment' with ETF Approval Solana (SOL) is reportedly poised to potentially reach new highs if ETF approvals trigger an 'institutional moment.' This indicates a growing institutional interest in specific Layer 1 blockchains. DOT, with its robust cross-chain capabilities and scalability, holds similar potential to attract significant institutional attention. ・Ether Faces 'Rare Oversold' Signal at Multi-Month Lows Ether's (ETH) Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching a multi-month 'rare oversold' condition suggests the possibility of a short-term price reversal. This can serve as an indicator of a potential turning point in market psychology. As DOT's price is also influenced by overall market sentiment, such technical indicator shifts in ETH could impact DOT's short-term price movements. ・Bitcoin Faces 'Fear' Not Seen Since $83k Level; Analysis Watches for 'Turning Point' The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has returned to 'fear' levels not seen since Bitcoin traded around $83,000, indicating a deterioration in market participant sentiment. However, analysis suggests this could also represent a 'turning point,' drawing attention to future price trends. Given DOT's tendency to correlate with Bitcoin, this heightened market fear could exert short-term downward pressure on DOT's price. Overall Summary The current news cycle underscores the impact of macroeconomic and regulatory trends—including expanding institutional involvement in crypto, advancements in RWA tokenization, and the global proliferation of CBDCs—on the cryptocurrency market as a whole. While these factors support DOT's long-term growth potential, they may also influence short-term price volatility. DOT has opportunities to benefit from these trends by leveraging its interoperability and scalability, but continued vigilance regarding overall market sentiment and regulatory developments is essential.

Macroeconomic uncertainty, evolving global regulatory landscapes, and competitive pressures from rival Layer 1 blockchains constitute significant downside risks. A broader market sentiment downturn, such as a decline in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, could also impact the DOT price. The critical support level is identified around the recent low of $4.00.

In the short term (24-48 hours), a gradual uptrend is expected, supported by a bullish MACD crossover. However, with the RSI remaining neutral, consolidation within a range is also anticipated. The medium-term outlook (1 week) will likely depend on overall market sentiment and news flow, such as potential broader ETF approvals. Catalysts could emerge from the Aave V4 upgrade and growth within the DOT ecosystem.

DOT's market maintains a neutral to slightly bullish bias, supported by fundamental strengths such as increasing institutional adoption, the evolution of Decentralized Finance (DeFi), and progress in Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization. On the technical front, a bullish MACD crossover indicates short-term upward momentum, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral territory, anticipating consolidation within a range-bound market. Our recommended investment strategy involves buying on dips near the recent low of approximately $4.00. Price targets are set at $5.00 initially, followed by $5.50, and a further target at $6.00. A stop-loss is advised below $3.90, highlighting the necessity of strict risk management. Key levels to watch this week are the $4.00 support and $5.00 resistance; a decisive move above $5.00 is expected to determine the short-term trajectory. Furthermore, staying attuned to overall market sentiment, influenced by regulatory developments and Bitcoin's movements, is crucial for successful trading. Based on this analysis and strategy, maintaining calm and disciplined trading practices will enable capitalizing on DOT's growth potential while targeting stable returns.