Concerns regarding a potential US government shutdown and institutional Bitcoin purchases are boosting market sentiment. Expectations for an October "Pumptober" are also fostering optimism. However, increased bot activity and the EU's push for stablecoin regulation signal uncertainty. While technically neutral, the market presents a mix of risks and opportunities. Market bias is assessed as 'Neutral'.

・Potential US government shutdown fuels demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin and gold. Amid uncertain economic conditions, this trend suggests Bitcoin can act as a hedge against declining trust in fiat currencies. While unlikely to directly impact meme coins like PEPE, it could influence overall market risk-on/risk-off sentiment. ・Over 70% of stablecoin transactions in Q3 identified as bot-driven. This finding is crucial for understanding the true state of market liquidity and trading volume. Such activity may diverge from genuine user behavior, potentially affecting price fluctuations in volatile assets like PEPE. Furthermore, bot activity poses a risk for triggering sudden market volatility. ・The shift from 'Alternative Assets' to 'Mainstream'. Blockchain technology is digitizing alternative assets like wine and art, enabling fractional ownership and 24/7 accessibility, thus blurring the lines between alternative and mainstream investments. This trend suggests growing interest in digital assets among a broader investor base, which could indirectly increase attention towards newer asset classes like PEPE. ・Tornado Cash Co-founder seeks overturning of conviction. The news that Roman Storm, co-founder of Tornado Cash, is pursuing the dismissal of his conviction highlights the legal ambiguity and regulatory uncertainty surrounding crypto mixers. This could shape regulatory stances on privacy-focused cryptocurrency projects, indirectly impacting confidence in the broader DeFi ecosystem and potentially influencing assets like PEPE. ・Machi Big Brother faces significant unrealized losses. The revelation that prominent crypto investor Machi Big Brother is reportedly facing substantial unrealized losses of approximately $9 million on Hyperliquid underscores the vulnerability of even high-volume traders to sharp market volatility. This could sway market sentiment, potentially triggering profit-taking or forced liquidations. Meme coins like PEPE, being highly susceptible to market psychology, require caution in this environment. ・Potential for Bitcoin's October rally ('Pumptober'). Bitcoin concluding September positively fuels expectations for a traditional October rally, often termed 'Pumptober', based on historical performance. This potential uptrend could boost overall market sentiment, possibly driving capital inflows into altcoins and consequently meme coins like PEPE. Analyst price targets ranging from $127,000 to $137,000 reinforce this optimistic market outlook. ・Stablecoin SSR RSI signals 'buy'; long-term holders accumulating BTC. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) generating a 'buy' signal, combined with evidence of Bitcoin accumulation by long-term holders, indicates significant underlying buying pressure. This could support Bitcoin's price appreciation and improve overall market sentiment, potentially benefiting assets like PEPE within this broader bullish trend. ・Japanese firm Metaplanet purchases $600 million worth of Bitcoin. The announcement of Japanese investment firm Metaplanet acquiring an additional ~$600 million in Bitcoin, positioning it fourth in corporate holdings, signals continued institutional adoption. This enhances Bitcoin's credibility and contributes to market stability. Such increasing institutional interest may indirectly stimulate investment appetite for riskier assets like PEPE. ・EU potentially moving towards banning stablecoins. Reports suggesting that EU supervisory authorities are advocating for a ban on multi-issued stablecoins present significant regulatory challenges for issuers. This could impact the usage of major stablecoins like USDC and Paxos, potentially imposing restrictions on cryptocurrency trading and DeFi activities within the EU, and consequently affecting trading pairs for assets like PEPE. ・Coinbase executive: Crypto is necessary for AI agents in financial markets. A statement by a Coinbase executive asserting the necessity of cryptocurrencies for AI agents to function effectively in financial markets points towards an increasing synergy between AI and blockchain technology. Future integration could see AI deeply involved in automating crypto trading and market analysis, potentially impacting trading strategies for assets such as PEPE. [Overall Summary] The potential US government shutdown, institutional Bitcoin acquisitions, and anticipation surrounding 'Pumptober' are fostering optimistic market sentiment. Conversely, the prevalence of bot activity in stablecoin transactions and potential regulatory actions in the EU introduce market uncertainties. The price dynamics of meme coins like PEPE are likely to be influenced by short-term speculative demand and overall market sentiment, while requiring careful observation of long-term technological developments and regulatory trends.

Regulatory scrutiny, including the EU's push regarding stablecoins and actions concerning Tornado Cash, poses indirect risks by eroding confidence in the broader DeFi ecosystem. Additionally, market manipulation by bots and significant unrealized losses held by prominent investors could potentially incite sharp price fluctuations and panic selling. Meme coins such as PEPE are particularly vulnerable to these shifts in market sentiment.

In the short term, the market's direction will likely be dictated by overall sentiment and Bitcoin's (BTC) price action. Increased volatility may also occur, potentially driven by bot activity and rapid news flows. For the medium term, anticipation surrounding "Pumptober" could provide a positive influence. However, factors such as intensified regulatory scrutiny from the EU may act as a headwind. Looking ahead, the convergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency represents a significant long-term catalyst.

Overall, the PEPE market is assessed as **Neutral**. Concerns regarding a potential US government shutdown, institutional Bitcoin accumulation, and anticipation for "Pumptober" are fostering a generally optimistic market sentiment, potentially benefiting PEPE from a Bitcoin-led rally. However, significant downside risks persist, including the threat of liquidity manipulation by bots, tightening EU regulations on stablecoins, and legal uncertainties surrounding Tornado Cash. Technical indicators currently lack a clear directional signal, suggesting consolidation within the neutral zone is likely. **Recommended Action Plan:** Aggressive entry is not advised at this time. Investors should either await a clearer market direction or consider taking limited positions during substantial corrections, based on their individual risk tolerance. Take-profit targets should remain short-term, stop-losses must be set immediately, and strict risk management is essential. **Key factors to monitor this week:** Bitcoin's price action, EU regulatory announcements, and the performance of major altcoins. Adaptability to shifts in overall market sentiment is crucial. While remaining cautiously optimistic, understand PEPE's speculative nature. Approach trading with calm judgment and discipline to manage risks and capitalize on opportunities.