**Executive Summary** **Key Takeaways:** 1. Bitcoin's sustained bullish trend and increasing institutional accumulation. 2. Market maturation driven by progress in stablecoin regulation. 3. The ETF approval decision in October is poised to influence market direction. The overall market bias is assessed as neutral to slightly bullish, balancing caution regarding potential short-term outflows with strong long-term bullish factors and anticipation of ETF approval.

・XRP, Potential for a $15 Rally and Parallels with Past Patterns XRP is potentially facing a quarterly closing price near its all-time high, mirroring a pattern that preceded its staggering 37,800% surge in 2017. On-chain data further supports a bullish outlook, with the MVRV Z-score and mid-tier holders showing no signs of capitulation. This suggests a potential for XRP to rally towards $15. Institutional investors will likely weigh these historical patterns against current on-chain metrics to assess XRP's potential upside. ・Progress in Stablecoin Regulation by G7 Nations G7 nations are advancing stablecoin regulations, with new legislation enacted in the US, the MiCA regulation coming into effect in the EU, and established frameworks in Japan. While dollar-pegged tokens like Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) currently dominate the market, countries are also promoting the adoption of stablecoins pegged to their own national currencies. These regulatory developments are expected to foster the healthy growth of the stablecoin sector and create a more secure environment for institutional participation. ・Significant Outflows from Digital Asset Funds Amidst Solana's Resilience Last week marked an end to a two-week inflow streak for digital asset investment products, recording outflows totaling $812 million. This shift is largely attributed to receding expectations for US interest rate cuts. However, Solana (SOL) defied this trend, showing considerable price appreciation. While the outflows may signal short-term negative market sentiment, the strength of specific assets like Solana highlights the potential for individual projects and technologies to exhibit performance distinct from overall market trends. ・MicroStrategy, Led by Michael Saylor, Continues Bitcoin Accumulation MicroStrategy purchased an additional 196 BTC, valued at $22.1 million, during a week when Bitcoin's price traded below $110,000, increasing its total holdings to over 640,000 BTC. This move underscores the continued bullish conviction of a major institutional investor towards Bitcoin. The strategy of accumulating assets during price downturns reflects a strong belief in Bitcoin's long-term value appreciation and may serve as a positive signal to other institutional players, potentially bolstering Bitcoin's price support. ・Bitcoin Bull Market Intact, Analysts Predict $150K-$300K Range Certain analysts believe Bitcoin's bull market is far from over, projecting targets within the $150,000 to $300,000 range. Although last week's sharp drop to $108,000 temporarily raised concerns, a decisive breakout above the $112,000-$114,000 zone is seen as a precursor to a potential rally towards $140,000. This perspective emphasizes the importance of focusing on the long-term upward trend rather than being swayed by short-term price fluctuations. ・October: "ETF Month" as 16 Digital Asset Funds Await Final SEC Decisions October is shaping up to be "ETF Month," with 16 digital asset ETFs linked to prominent altcoins such as Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), Litecoin (LTC), and Dogecoin (DOGE) awaiting final decisions from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This potential wave of ETF approvals could unlock significant new investment avenues for institutional investors, substantially increasing market liquidity. The approval of altcoin-focused ETFs, in particular, could accelerate capital inflows into these specific digital assets, potentially driving their prices higher. ・SWIFT and ConsenSys Co-Develop Blockchain Payment System SWIFT, the global financial messaging cooperative, is collaborating with ConsenSys, a key Ethereum ecosystem developer, to create a blockchain-based payment system. This initiative, involving over 30 financial institutions, aims to develop infrastructure for "real-time, 24/7 cross-border payments." The project holds the potential to overcome the delays and limitations associated with traditional cross-border banking transactions, thereby accelerating the adoption of blockchain technology within the financial industry. ・October Sees 16 Digital Asset ETFs Awaiting Final SEC Verdict October is being dubbed "ETF Month" as 16 digital asset ETFs await the SEC's final decisions. These funds are tied to major altcoins including Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), Litecoin (LTC), and Dogecoin (DOGE), and their potential approval could significantly impact the market. Specifically, the green-lighting of these altcoin-related ETFs is expected to encourage greater institutional investment flows into these assets, potentially acting as a catalyst for price appreciation. ・Bitcoin Recovers Above $112,000, Bull Market Sentiment Persists Despite significant volatility and a temporary dip to $108,000 last week, Bitcoin analysts maintain that the cryptocurrency remains in a bull market. The recovery above $112,000 on Monday, while showing signs of exhaustion in some trader segments, demonstrates the market's resilience. This sustained bullish trend reinforces confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition and could potentially attract further capital inflows. ・Q3 Sees Massive Inflows into Stablecoins Exceeding $46 Billion, Led by USDT and USDC Over the last 90 days, stablecoins have experienced net inflows surpassing $46 billion, signaling robust demand for USD-pegged assets within the crypto ecosystem. Tether (USDT) led the charge with $19.6 billion in net inflows, followed by Circle (USDC) at $12.3 billion. Ethena's USDe also emerged as a notable contender, securing $9 billion. This substantial inflow suggests that market participants are shifting capital towards stablecoins as a perceived safe haven, potentially due to hesitancy towards riskier assets. While this may indicate broader market uncertainty, it also confirms continued capital allocation into the digital asset space. ・Overall Summary The market is currently buoyed by positive developments, including the ongoing bull market for Bitcoin, advancements in stablecoin regulation by G7 nations, and the collaborative development of a blockchain payment system by SWIFT and ConsenSys. However, challenges persist, such as significant outflows from digital asset funds and regulatory uncertainties surrounding certain altcoins. The final decisions from the SEC on multiple digital asset ETFs, anticipated in October, represent key events that will likely shape the future direction of the market.

**Risk Analysis** Recent significant outflows from cryptocurrency funds, totaling $812 million, indicate a short-term deterioration in sentiment. Developments in US interest rates also warrant attention. Regulatory uncertainty surrounding certain altcoins poses a potential downside risk. While monitoring key support levels is crucial, it is essential to remain mindful of overall market volatility and implement rigorous risk management practices.

**Outlook** In the short-term (24-48 hours), expect a period of directional uncertainty, largely driven by reactions to ETF-related news. Over the medium-term (1 week), the SEC's decision on ETF approval will be a key determinant of market sentiment. A favorable outcome could potentially drive capital inflows into altcoins. Key catalysts to watch include the SEC's final ETF determination, developments in stablecoin regulation, and SWIFT and Consensys's payment system developments.

**Conclusion** The market is buoyed by the ongoing bull run in Bitcoin and advancements in stablecoin regulation. However, fund outflows signal a short-term weakening of sentiment, warranting caution. The ETF approval decision in October serves as a crucial catalyst that will shape the market's trajectory. Our investment strategy involves maintaining conviction in Bitcoin's long-term trend, considering buying opportunities on dips around $108,000. Nonetheless, ETF uncertainty necessitates a cautious approach. We recommend adding to positions on a break above $112,000-$114,000, while implementing a stop-loss order below $108,000. For risk management, it is essential to closely monitor outflow trends and the ETF decision, responding calmly to capitalize on actionable trading opportunities.