Geopolitical risks and regulatory uncertainty, including escalated EU sanctions, France's regulatory stance, and concerns over stablecoin regulation, are currently acting as headwinds for the market. Conversely, an increase in long-term Bitcoin holdings and the strong debut of USDT and DOGE ETFs suggest growing institutional interest and market resilience. While Ethereum upgrades and DeFi integrations indicate ecosystem growth, PEPE is expected to experience short-term volatility within a neutral bias, positioned between these positive factors and regulatory risks.

・EU Adds Cryptocurrency Platforms to Sanctions Package The inclusion of cryptocurrency platforms in the EU's sanctions package against Russia marks the first time digital asset services have been directly targeted, raising concerns about increased regulation across the entire crypto market. Specifically, the prohibition of all crypto transactions with Russian residents and restrictions on dealings with foreign banks linked to Russian payment systems could influence the usage trends of cryptocurrencies in sanctioned countries and subsequent regulatory tightening by various nations. Meme coins like PEPE, heavily reliant on speculative capital inflows, may face capital outflows and price instability due to such geopolitical risks and regulatory uncertainties. ・France Considers Unique Regulations for EU Crypto Licenses France's suggestion that it might block crypto licenses obtained in other countries for EU-wide operations indicates potential regulatory divergence within the EU, casting doubt on the promise of a unified market under the MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) regulation. This could expose crypto businesses to additional country-specific regulations and complex procedures for obtaining licenses and expanding operations, potentially increasing operational costs and creating barriers to entry. Projects like PEPE could be affected in their global expansion and liquidity sourcing, as regulatory uncertainty may negatively impact short-term investment behavior. ・Moves Towards Stricter Regulation of Stablecoins like USDT and USTC The Bank of Italy's call for stricter regulations on multi-jurisdiction stablecoins signals heightened regulatory scrutiny of stablecoins in general. Additionally, the biometric authentication mandate for bank accounts in Vietnam and subsequent account closures highlight the importance of digital ID within the financial system. These developments reflect concerns regarding stablecoin peg maintenance mechanisms, issuer transparency, and associated liquidity risks. Altcoins like PEPE, which often rely on stablecoins for transactions and fund transfers, could see their trading liquidity and price formation indirectly affected by changes in the regulatory environment surrounding stablecoins. ・BHUTAN Moves Over $100 Million in Bitcoin The news that the Bhutanese government moved over $100 million worth of Bitcoin reaffirms the significant market impact of large holder (whale) activities. If this movement indicates a potential sell-off, it could exert downward pressure on the market. Amid generally positive news for the crypto market, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), large-scale fund movements like this could temporarily dampen market sentiment. Highly volatile assets like PEPE tend to react sensitively to the actions of these major holders, potentially acting as a driver for short-term price fluctuations. ・Bitcoin's Non-Liquid Supply Reaches All-Time High The record high in Bitcoin's non-liquid supply (coins held for extended periods with low probability of trading) suggests that market participants are strengthening their long-term holding stance, remaining unfazed by short-term price fluctuations. This can be interpreted as a sign of overall market resilience and increasing institutional conviction in Bitcoin. Altcoins like PEPE, which are heavily influenced by Bitcoin's price trends and market sentiment, may find their investment appeal indirectly supported by this long-term Bitcoin accumulation trend. ・Ethereum's 'Fusaka' Upgrade Delayed to December, Blob Capacity to Double The news that Ethereum's upcoming major upgrade, 'Fusaka,' has been postponed to December and will feature doubled blob capacity indicates progress towards enhancing the Ethereum network's scalability and efficiency. Ethereum's technological advancements could positively impact Ethereum-based altcoins, particularly ERC-20 tokens like PEPE. Reduced network congestion and lower transaction costs could facilitate smoother transactions and usage of PEPE, potentially stimulating demand as a result. ・USDT, DOGE ETFs Debut in the US with $54.7 Million in Opening Day Trading Volume The listing of the first Tether (USDT) and Dogecoin (DOGE) ETFs in the United States, recording $54.7 million in trading volume on their debut day, signifies growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies and expanding access through traditional financial products like ETFs. This could enhance the overall maturity of the crypto market and encourage participation from a broader investor base. While direct ETF listings for altcoins like PEPE are still distant, improvements in overall market liquidity and institutional capital inflows could indirectly benefit the prices of such altcoins. ・Coinbase Partners with DeFi to Offer Up to 10.8% Yield for USDC Holders The announcement that major cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase is partnering with DeFi protocols to offer yields of up to 10.8% for USDC holders demonstrates the increasing adoption of DeFi potential by traditional financial institutions. This could expand the use cases for stablecoins and encourage participation in the DeFi ecosystem. Providing safer and more stable income opportunities is crucial for driving capital inflows into altcoins like PEPE, and platform integrations like Coinbase's DeFi initiative could contribute to overall market liquidity improvement. Overall Summary Heightened geopolitical risks and regulatory uncertainty are evident from the EU's intensified sanctions against Russia, France's regulatory stance, and the Bank of Italy's call for stricter stablecoin regulations. Conversely, the increase in Bitcoin's non-liquid supply and the strong debut of USDT and DOGE ETFs suggest growing institutional interest and market resilience. Ethereum's upgrade progress and Coinbase's DeFi integration hold potential for ecosystem growth and improved user experience. Consequently, PEPE's price is expected to continue experiencing short-term volatility, caught between these positive factors and the negative influences of regulatory and geopolitical risks.

Heightened EU sanctions on Russia and France's consideration of specific domestic regulations contribute to increased market-wide regulatory risk. Concerns about tightening regulations on stablecoins also exacerbate liquidity risk. The actions of significant holders, exemplified by the substantial Bitcoin movement by the Bhutanese government, could potentially trigger unforeseen market volatility. While the provided data makes it difficult to identify specific support levels, news regarding regulatory tightening could act as a direct downward catalyst.

The outlook for the next 24-48 hours suggests a neutral price action accompanied by volatility, influenced by countervailing factors such as geopolitical risks and heightened institutional interest. In the medium term, overall market sentiment will likely hinge on regulatory developments within the EU and dynamics in the ETF market. Notable catalysts include fresh regulatory announcements and significant fund movements, potentially dictating PEPE's short-term trajectory.

The current PEPE market finds itself in a neutral but highly volatile environment, balancing downward pressures from tightening EU regulations and geopolitical risks against upward catalysts like the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs in the US and technological advancements within Ethereum. Technical analysis suggests a low probability of forming a clear short-term trend, evidenced by the RSI resting in the neutral zone at 43.1 and the absence of a decisive crossover on the MACD. While the increasing non-liquid supply of Bitcoin hints at long-term market resilience, meme coins like PEPE remain highly speculative and sensitive to short-term capital flows. Therefore, continuous monitoring of regulatory developments and the actions of major holders is essential. **Investment Strategy:** Aggressive new entries into PEPE are currently not advised. A neutral stance, waiting for the market to establish a clear direction, is the prudent approach. For existing holders, consider taking profits during short-term price rallies. Deploying additional capital during pullbacks should be done cautiously, acknowledging the risk of breaching key support levels (currently undefined due to lack of data, but generally referring to historical trading activity or significant psychological price points). It is crucial to maintain stop-loss levels unemotionally, fixed at pre-determined price points, such as a few percent below recent lows. **Key Watchpoints and Risk Management:** This week, potential price impacts on PEPE could stem from additional EU regulatory news and further developments in the US ETF market. The stance adopted by regulators towards meme coins, specifically, is expected to significantly influence market sentiment. From a risk management perspective, maintaining a minimal allocation to PEPE within your overall portfolio is crucial. Investment should only be made with capital that one can afford to lose. In the current climate of high market uncertainty, disciplined trading is key to success. Staying calm, remaining informed, and preserving a long-term perspective are vital for capturing opportunities in this highly volatile market.