Bitcoin's potential short-term decline to the $118,000-$120,000 range is viewed as a healthy correction, supporting the long-term bullish trend. Following ETF approval, Solana indicates potential to outperform ETH, driven by its ecosystem and derivatives. Significant funding for Kalshi and the EU's stablecoin initiatives are positive signs of market maturation and expanding institutional adoption. The overall market bias remains bullish.

## Fundamental Analysis (As of October 10, 2025) ・Bitcoin Price May Dip to $118K-$120K, But Expected to Be Short-Lived Analysts point to a potential temporary decline in Bitcoin (BTC) prices within the $118,000 to $120,000 range. This is suggested by a significant $4.1 billion decrease from the peak in Bitcoin futures open interest, indicating a healthy reset. While this dip may signal a short-term correction, it is not expected to persist. At the institutional level, such price adjustments are often viewed as a healthy process for further accumulation. Rather than hindering a future upward trend, it is considered part of a more sustainable price discovery process. ・Solana (SOL) Potential to Outperform Ether (ETH) Post-ETF Approval Treasury-focused companies on the Solana (SOL) network are reportedly exploring the listing of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) on public markets, mirroring trends seen with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). This provides institutional investors with avenues to gain exposure to crypto assets via ETFs. Notably, Solana's ecosystem is strengthening, with CME futures already operational and options trading anticipated upon approval. This sets the stage for Solana potentially outperforming Ether following ETF approvals. While ETH ETF access is available, flows tend to be cyclical. For SOL to outperform ETH, sustained new issuance, tight hedging mechanisms, substantial on-chain utility, and continuous developer momentum are crucial. This trend signifies market diversification and growing interest in the broader crypto ecosystem, highlighting how ETF approvals can significantly influence individual altcoin performance. ・Kalshi Raises $300M+ to Expand Prediction Market Reach Kalshi, a US-based prediction market platform, has closed a Series D funding round exceeding $300 million, led by Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz (a16z). The company plans to expand its platform to over 140 countries. This significant capital injection underscores the growth potential of prediction markets and the strong institutional interest they attract. By allowing users to bet on the outcomes of events, prediction markets are increasingly valued by hedge funds and institutional investors as tools for risk management and market sentiment analysis. This funding is expected to fuel the development of more sophisticated financial products and broaden market access, ultimately enhancing market efficiency and transparency. ・SWIFT's Blockchain Development Challenges Ripple's Payment Infrastructure SWIFT, the messaging network underpinning most global interbank transactions, is developing a blockchain-based ledger. This new infrastructure aims to support real-time payments, interoperability with major networks, and tokenized assets. This initiative poses a potential challenge to Ripple's (XRP) dominance in the cross-border payments space. Considering SWIFT's extensive existing network and established trust, its blockchain solution could become an attractive option for large institutional players. This development signals a convergence between traditional financial systems and blockchain technology, potentially leading to a more efficient and cost-effective international payment landscape. ・CZ's Google Account Targeted by "State-Sponsored" Hackers The Google account of Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, co-founder of Binance, was reportedly targeted by "state-sponsored" hackers, specifically linked to the North Korean Lazarus Group. This incident highlights the heightened risk of cyberattacks faced by prominent figures in the cryptocurrency industry. Such attacks can potentially undermine market confidence and cause temporary disruptions. For institutional investors, this serves as a critical reminder of the paramount importance of robust security measures, potentially driving further capital towards platforms with superior security infrastructure. ・Crypto Payments Enabled at Over 650,000 Locations in South Africa A partnership between QR payment provider Scan to Pay and Bitcoin payment firm MoneyBadger has enabled cryptocurrency payments at more than 650,000 merchants across South Africa. This is a prime example of expanding the everyday utility of cryptocurrencies, particularly highlighting the potential for financial inclusion in emerging markets. This move is expected to foster wider crypto payment adoption across the region and attract new customer segments to the market. For institutional investors, it signals evolving consumer behavior and the emergence of new market opportunities. ・Bitcoin Poised to Resume Uptrend from $118K Support Level While analysts acknowledge the possibility of Bitcoin (BTC) temporarily dipping to the $118,000-$120,000 range, the reduction in futures open interest suggests a healthy reset. Following this, the expectation is for the resumption of the uptrend. Furthermore, the Mayer Multiple indicator suggests Bitcoin is nearing an "undervalued" state, implying potential upside towards $180,000. Additional analysis indicates that $110,000 has been established as a new support level, potentially leading to upward revisions of 2025 price targets. These analyses collectively indicate persistent bullish sentiment despite short-term volatility, presenting ongoing accumulation opportunities for institutional investors. ・EU Considers Euro-Denominated Stablecoin to Challenge Dollar Dominance The Managing Director of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) has proposed that the EU should promote the development of Euro-denominated stablecoins to counter the dominance of US dollar-based stablecoins. This suggests shifting geopolitical dynamics within the crypto market and the potential for an expanded role for the Euro in the global financial system. The proliferation of Euro stablecoins could boost digital asset utilization within the EU and foster a more diverse financial ecosystem. For institutional investors, this may translate into expanded investment opportunities across new regions and currency pairs. ・HashKey Weighs Hong Kong IPO, Potentially Raising $500M HashKey Group, a major licensed cryptocurrency exchange in Hong Kong, is reportedly considering an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the city, aiming to raise up to $500 million. This move signifies the increasing integration of crypto exchanges into traditional financial markets, contributing to the industry's maturation and enhanced credibility. Fundraising through an IPO could accelerate HashKey's business expansion, enabling broader service offerings and security enhancements. For institutional investors, this could represent a new investment channel into the cryptocurrency sector. 【Overall Summary】 Today's news highlights the continued dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market. While Bitcoin faces potential short-term corrections, strong expectations for a medium-to-long-term uptrend persist, with ETF-related developments and institutional inflows potentially contributing to price stabilization. Technological innovations and regulatory trends in specific projects and regions, such as Solana, SWIFT, and the EU's stablecoin strategy, are key drivers of structural market changes. Overall, the market is heading towards a maturation phase. Increased regulatory clarity and technological advancements are expected to encourage further institutional adoption and accelerate the proliferation of cryptocurrencies.

Downside risks include fundamental factors such as a potential short-term correction in BTC, Solana potentially outperforming ETH, and an attack on CZ's account. Payment adoption in South Africa and the EU's Euro stablecoin initiative signal market diversification and the emergence of geopolitical risks. The key support level is the recent low of $3,898. A break below this level could trigger declines towards $3,500 and $3,000.

Over the next 24-48 hours, with the RSI indicating oversold conditions and the price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band, a short-term rebound is anticipated, provided the $3,898 support level holds. The weekly outlook hinges on whether this rebound proves sustainable. Key catalysts to monitor include the projected drop in BTC towards the $118,000-$120,000 range and subsequent price action, Solana's performance following ETF approval, and developments regarding the EU's Euro stablecoin.

**Conclusion** The current ETH market exhibits significant short-term bearish pressure, evidenced by an RSI of 20.9 indicating oversold conditions and the price breaching the lower Bollinger Band. However, underlying fundamentals—including anticipated post-correction strength in Bitcoin, potential outperformance of Solana following ETF approval, and substantial funding secured by Kalshi—collectively support market maturation and institutional inflow, reinforcing a long-term bullish bias. Our overall assessment is neutral to slightly bullish. **Investment Action Plan:** We recommend initiating long positions around the current price near $3,898. The entry zone is established between $3,800 and $3,950. Take-profit targets are set at $4,500 and $4,750, with a stop-loss level at $3,700. The most critical level to monitor this week is the $3,898 support. A decisive break below this level would warrant closing current positions and considering potential re-entry near the $3,500 zone. Conversely, breaking convincingly above $4,200 would likely accelerate momentum, making the $4,500 target increasingly attainable. **Risk Management:** Continuous vigilance is required regarding CZ-related security risks, developments concerning SWIFT, and Solana's influence on ETH. While aiming for short-term rebounds, hedging strategies using $3,898 as a stop-loss remain viable. A clear breach below $3,898 should be treated with caution, potentially signaling a transition into a bear market, and necessitating prudent trading practices. Despite market volatility, opportunities can be identified through a long-term perspective and disciplined risk management. View this current consolidation phase as a process of building a more robust foundation, presenting a valuable investment opportunity for the future.