European state-backed funds' investments in Bitcoin ETFs and a surge in related applications signal expanding institutional confidence. The Kohaku roadmap for Ethereum development aims to bolster privacy and security measures. Furthermore, the ascent of the BNB Chain is intensifying competitive pressure on Ethereum (ETH). The overall market bias is assessed as neutral, reflecting a blend of positive fundamentals alongside short-term price volatility.

・A Luxembourg-based sovereign wealth fund has invested 1% in a Bitcoin ETF. This investment by a European sovereign wealth fund into a Bitcoin ETF is a symbolic event highlighting the growing confidence of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market. It suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly being recognized in traditional financial markets not just as a speculative asset, but as a viable asset class worth incorporating into portfolios. Such a trend could encourage other institutional investors and sovereign funds to follow suit, potentially driving further capital inflows into Bitcoin. Consequently, this is expected to contribute to Bitcoin's price stabilization and reinforce the foundation for long-term value appreciation. ・Applications for crypto ETFs surge, reaching 21 by early October. The sharp increase in cryptocurrency ETF applications submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) clearly signals market enthusiasm and heightened institutional interest in this asset class. This aligns with the bullish market trend observed in October, commonly referred to as "Uptober," further boosting market sentiment. The high volume of applications indicates intensifying competition among ETF issuers, suggesting the potential emergence of more cost-effective and accessible products in the future. This expansion is poised to broaden investment opportunities in Bitcoin and related assets for both retail and institutional investors. ・Afghanistan's internet shutdown serves as a warning for blockchain decentralization. The internet shutdown in Afghanistan has brought to light a fundamental challenge: the reliance of blockchain technology on centralized internet infrastructure to maintain its decentralization. This dependency indicates a risk where blockchain networks could be affected by state-sponsored censorship or technical disruptions. This reality underscores the need for decentralizing internet infrastructure itself and developing technologies capable of functioning even in offline environments to build truly decentralized systems. While the direct short-term impact on ETH prices is likely limited, it may spur long-term development towards more resilient blockchain architectures. ・European digital asset regulation has a blind spot regarding transferability. A potential gap in the definition of "transferability" within Europe's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation suggests that certain digital assets, particularly equity stakes in private companies or custom contracts, might fall outside the regulatory framework. This could pose an unexpected barrier to efforts aimed at digitizing and facilitating the trading of these assets. A key future focus will be how regulatory bodies address these "digital but non-transferable" asset classes. This situation could influence the development of diverse financial products within the DeFi ecosystem, highlighting the need for regulatory clarity, especially concerning initiatives to digitize and tokenize a wider range of assets. ・Ripple partners with Bahrain to introduce the RLUSD stablecoin. Ripple's plan to introduce the RLUSD stablecoin in Bahrain represents a strategic move to foster digital asset adoption and expand stablecoin use cases within the Middle East region. The collaboration with the Central Bank of Bahrain indicates that the process is proceeding with regulatory approval, serving as a positive sign for the introduction of regulated stablecoins in the region. This initiative is expected to facilitate cross-border payments and streamline digital asset transactions within the region. The proliferation of RLUSD could indirectly affect the liquidity of Ripple's XRP, potentially enhancing its competitiveness, particularly in the international remittance sector. ・Ethereum developers announce the Kohaku roadmap to enhance privacy and security. The announcement of the Kohaku roadmap by Ethereum developers signifies progress in technological development aimed at improving wallet privacy and security. The adoption of a modular framework suggests flexibility for developers regarding customization and future feature enhancements. This development is expected to bolster user security within the Ethereum ecosystem, creating an environment where more users can confidently utilize services such as DeFi and NFTs. Enhanced privacy is a crucial factor in alleviating regulatory concerns and promoting the widespread adoption of Ethereum. ・XRP shows a bullish pattern targeting $6 despite corrections. The indication of a highly bullish pattern for XRP in technical analysis, with a price target set at $6, reflects an optimistic outlook among market participants. Despite short-term price fluctuations, the analysis points to a robust technical setup, suggesting significant upside potential for XRP in the long term. Furthermore, fundamental factors, including developments in the SEC lawsuit and the expansion of its use cases in international remittances, could bolster this bullish scenario. Breaking through specified resistance levels is crucial for achieving the target, and success could positively impact the performance of other altcoins, including ETH. ・BNB gains mindshare amid market shift towards low-cost chains. The surge in "mindshare" within the BNB Chain ecosystem suggests a growing market interest in high-throughput, low-cost blockchain solutions. The rise in the BNB token's price reflects this market trend, signifying that scalability and transaction costs are increasingly important considerations for users and developers. By capitalizing on this trend, BNB Chain potentially solidifies its position as a major alternative platform to Ethereum. This challenge to Ethereum's dominance could impact ETH's market share. ・Bitcoin may see a "parabolic" rise or bull run end within 100 days. Analysis of Bitcoin's price volatility indicates two potential scenarios within the next 100 days: either a parabolic surge or the termination of the current bull run. This suggests that Bitcoin's price cycle is at a significant inflection point, necessitating caution among market participants. Based on historical patterns, substantial price movements are likely within this timeframe. Such uncertainty could amplify overall market volatility, affecting altcoins like ETH as well. ・Canada permits crypto ETFs to offer staking functionality. Canada's regulatory approval for crypto ETFs to provide staking functionality represents a diversification of cryptocurrency investment products in North America and an expansion of opportunities for institutional investors to earn staking rewards. This allows ETF issuers to offer more profitable products, thereby increasing investor appeal. The integration of staking is expected to enhance ETF liquidity and potentially contribute to the maturation of the overall cryptocurrency market in the long run. Given the widespread adoption of ETH staking, such ETF developments could further incentivize investment in ETH and other stakeable assets. Overall Summary The cryptocurrency market sentiment yesterday was largely positive, driven by a confluence of factors including expanding institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs, regulatory developments, and ongoing technological advancements across various projects. Specifically, the investment by a European sovereign wealth fund in a Bitcoin ETF and the rush of ETF applications in the US signal increasing market maturity and expectations of new capital inflows. Conversely, fundamental challenges related to blockchain's reliance on internet infrastructure were also highlighted. While these dynamics may contribute to market volatility, they are expected to promote the digitization of broader asset classes and expand investment opportunities in the long run. The impact on ETH prices will likely depend on the progression of the Ethereum ecosystem's development, the trajectory of competing blockchains, and the broader macroeconomic environment.

Risk Analysis: Potential catalysts for decline include Bitcoin's volatility risk within a 100-day timeframe and the emergence of competing Layer 1 blockchains like BNB Chain. Additionally, reliance on internet infrastructure, as highlighted by the situation in Afghanistan, represents a long-term risk that requires attention. The key support level is currently near the recent low of $4,297.

In the short-term (24-48 hours), price action is expected to move in tandem with Bitcoin (BTC), with holding the ~$4,297 level being the key focus. For the medium-term (1 week), ETF-related news and technical developments concerning Ethereum could act as catalysts, potentially triggering an attempt to break out from the current range-bound market.

In summary, the ETH market stands at a turning point where short-term neutral-to-bearish conditions intersect with long-term bullish fundamentals. While increasing institutional confidence and technological development are positive, maintaining the $4,297 support level is the immediate focus. For investment strategy, we advise waiting for a clear directional move. Entry signals will be based on a confirmed bounce from $4,297 or a breakout above $4,500. Initial profit targets are set between $4,500 and $4,700, with a stop-loss below $4,200. A break above $4,748 could open the possibility of targeting levels above $5,000. Key factors to monitor this week include BTC's price action, ETF news, and ETH's technological progress (Kohaku). Despite high volatility, ETH is expected to trend strongly should positive catalysts emerge. Diligent risk management and identifying strategic entry points are crucial for success.