
Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis: October 4, 2025
2025-10-03
Price
$4536.34▲ 1.64%
Summary
The collaboration between Samsung and Coinbase, enhancing crypto access, is poised to onboard millions of new users.
The integration of BTC/ETH trading on Walmart's OnePay signifies a major retailer's move towards broader financial service integration.
Robust institutional long positioning in Bitcoin futures and Nomura's preparations for Japanese market entry enhance market confidence, despite lingering regulatory uncertainty.
The overall market bias is bullish.
Fundamentals
・Samsung expands Coinbase integration into Galaxy Wallet, enabling direct crypto purchases.
This expanded integration of Coinbase within Samsung's Galaxy Wallet significantly simplifies direct cryptocurrency purchases for mainstream consumers. By granting over 75 million US Galaxy users access to Coinbase One—offering zero trading fees, increased staking rewards, and fund protection—it lowers the barrier to entry for cryptocurrencies, fostering new user acquisition and boosting market liquidity. This move underscores the ongoing investment by major tech companies in crypto infrastructure and its integration into consumer-facing services, potentially driving wider adoption of major cryptocurrencies, including ETH.
・OnePay, Walmart's banking app, set to add Bitcoin and Ethereum trading this year.
Reports indicate that OnePay, the banking application under Walmart, plans to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading and custody services within the year. This signifies a growing trend of crypto service offerings extending to subsidiaries of major retailers, mirroring initiatives by traditional financial institutions. Aiming to become a "super app" similar to China's WeChat, OnePay enhances its appeal to a broader customer base by integrating crypto trading alongside banking services. This underscores the increasing recognition of cryptocurrencies as mainstream financial products, potentially contributing to ETH's adoption and price appreciation by providing retail consumers with investment opportunities, particularly in major altcoins like ETH.
・"Uptober" Closes Amid US Shutdown; Brazil Seeks Bitcoin Miners: Global Express.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding altcoin ETF applications due to the US government shutdown, Bitcoin (BTC) maintained an upward trend through October. The market, known as "Uptober," is closely watching regulatory uncertainties and related developments. In the UK, a court faces a decision regarding the valuation methodology—current Bitcoin price versus original loss amount—for restitution to victims in a reportedly record-breaking cryptocurrency seizure. These regulatory developments could influence the approval process for altcoin ETFs, potentially impacting price volatility for altcoins, including ETH.
・Altcoin ETFs: SEC Adopts New Listing Standards as October Becomes a Decisive Month.
October is a pivotal month for the cryptocurrency market as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) faces final deadlines for 16 ETF applications. These applications cover not only Bitcoin and Ethereum but also altcoins such as Solana, XRP, and Litecoin. Potential shifts in the SEC's stance and the impact of ETF approvals on investors are crucial for the broader altcoin market. If altcoins like Solana and Litecoin gain ETF approval, it could lead to significant inflows from institutional investors, directly benefiting their prices. For ETH, the outcomes of these altcoin ETF decisions could also influence investment sentiment.
・XRP Price Recovers to $3, Paving the Way for Potential 40% October Rally.
XRP's price has reclaimed the key psychological level of $3, supported by technical indicators like an RSI golden cross, fueling expectations for further upside within October. Limited profit-taking suggests strong holder conviction, particularly with ETF decisions looming this month, potentially driving XRP's price surge. While not directly correlated with ETH, the strength observed in major altcoins can improve overall market sentiment, possibly indirectly boosting investment appetite for ETH.
・Nomura Aims to Capture Japan's Booming Institutional Crypto Market.
Nomura Holdings, through its Swiss subsidiary Laser Digital, is preparing to enter the Japanese cryptocurrency market, signaling growing institutional interest in the sector. Laser Digital is reportedly in preliminary discussions with Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA), aiming to apply for a license to offer crypto trading services to institutional investors. This indicates a maturing regulatory framework in Japan, creating a more accessible environment for institutional players and potentially contributing to increased trading volume and price stability for major cryptocurrencies, including ETH.
・Bitcoin Futures Trend "Aggressively Long" as Whales Return.
Rising buy volume in Bitcoin futures suggests traders are strengthening their long-term bullish stance on BTC this month. A significant price gap on CME Group Bitcoin futures remains unfilled. The popularity of Bitcoin ETF options has surged, with open interest in IBIT approaching $40 billion. These trends clearly indicate heightened institutional interest in Bitcoin, bolstered by anticipation surrounding ETF approvals, providing a strong tailwind for Bitcoin's price appreciation. For ETH, the positive momentum in the Bitcoin market is expected to have a favorable spillover effect on the broader altcoin market sentiment.
・BNB Hits New Record of $1,111 Amid Vibrant User Metrics.
BNB, the native token of the BNB Chain, has reached a new record high of $1,111, driven by upgrade plans and a broader market rally. This performance highlights the growth of the Binance ecosystem and increased development activity on the BNB Chain. BNB's price increase, similar to ETH, is underpinned by its ecosystem's expansion and adoption. Specifically, the growth of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Non-Fungible Token (NFT) markets on the BNB Chain could further drive demand for BNB.
・Bitcoin Surpasses $120,000 Level; On-Chain Data Suggests New BTC Accumulation Phase.
Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the $120,000 level for the first time since August 13th, as selling pressure from long-term holders eased and on-chain data indicates the market may be entering an accumulation phase. According to Glassnode, the Short-Term Holder Realized Value (RVT) ratio suggests market stabilization and preparation for a decisive breakout. This implies that both institutional and retail investors view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value and are increasing their holdings, providing a strong signal supporting sustained price appreciation. ETH is also likely to benefit from the improved overall market sentiment, driven by Bitcoin's strength.
・SEC Silent on Spot Litecoin ETF Amid US Government Shutdown.
The spot Litecoin ETF application faces uncertainty as the SEC failed to make a decision by the deadline on Thursday. The SEC's silence introduces ambiguity regarding regulatory operations during a federal shutdown and its potential impact on the timeline for numerous cryptocurrency ETF applications awaiting approval. This inaction could introduce delays and uncertainty into the overall approval process for altcoin ETFs, potentially impacting the broader altcoin market, including ETH, negatively.
【Overall Summary】
The increasing involvement of major corporations like Samsung and Walmart in crypto services, the anticipation surrounding altcoin ETF approvals, and the notable price appreciation of Bitcoin demonstrate the growing interest in the cryptocurrency market from both institutional investors and mainstream consumers. However, uncertainties surrounding SEC ETF decisions and ongoing regulatory developments necessitate continued attention, as market volatility is likely to persist. Overall, the cryptocurrency market continues its steady growth, and ETH is expected to benefit from these prevailing trends.
Chart Analysis
Technical Analysis
The RSI is at 72.2, indicating an overbought condition and suggesting the potential for a short-term correction.
The MACD shows no crossover, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum.
The Bollinger Bands show prices contained within the bands, indicating movement within the current volatility range.
The trend strength is neutral at 0.0, corroborating the lack of directionality.
Key Price Levels
Immediate support is at $3,863, followed by the psychological level of $4,000.
Resistance is at the recent high of $4,546, with subsequent levels at $4,600 and $4,800.
A decisive breakout above $4,546 could open the door for further upside.
Conversely, a breakdown below $3,863 may signal a shift to a bearish trend.
Risk Analysis
Uncertainty surrounding the SEC's decision on altcoin ETFs, particularly exacerbated by the potential US government shutdown, poses a significant downside risk.
Given the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought territory, the possibility of profit-taking or a sharp correction cannot be ruled out.
Regulatory developments, such as crypto seizure incidents in the UK, could potentially worsen market sentiment.
The key support level is the recent low of $3,863.
Outlook
Over the next 24-48 hours, expect sideways price action or a minor correction amid overbought RSI conditions.
On a weekly timeframe, the narrative surrounding ETF approval serves as the key catalyst; positive developments are likely to sustain the upward trend.
Conversely, adverse signals from the SEC could potentially trigger temporary downward pressure.
Increased adoption by major corporations is poised to bolster ETH's long-term growth trajectory.
Conclusion
Conclusion:
Today's ETH market is underpinned by highly positive fundamentals, driven by the active integration of cryptocurrency infrastructure by major technology and retail companies such as Samsung and Walmart, coupled with anticipation surrounding potential altcoin ETF approvals in the US. The bullish stance of institutional investors in the Bitcoin futures market and preparations by traditional financial institutions like Nomura Holdings for market entry also contribute to bolstering overall market confidence. While technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating overbought conditions, suggesting a risk of short-term correction, the overall market sentiment and long-term adoption trends provide a significant tailwind for ETH.
As an actionable plan for investors, it is prudent to consider accumulating on short-term dips (e.g., around the $4,000-$4,200 range) or using a decisive breakout above $4,600 as an entry point. Short-term profit-taking targets can be set between $4,546 and $4,600. For those aiming for a medium-term rally driven by catalysts such as ETF approvals, targeting further highs, like levels above $5,000, should also be considered. Crucially, setting a stop-loss level below the recent low of $3,863 is vital for risk mitigation.
This week, pay particular attention to the SEC's ETF-related decisions and any new adoption news from major corporations. The outcome of these catalysts will likely determine the market's direction. From a risk management perspective, continuously monitoring the latest regulatory developments and preparing for unexpected market volatility is essential. Holistically considering these factors will enable strategic investment decisions in the ETH market, allowing investors to capitalize on opportunities while effectively managing risks.
*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Cryptocurrency investments carry high price volatility risks. Please make investment decisions at your own discretion and responsibility.