Expectations are rising for improved institutional access to ETH and subsequent capital inflows, spurred by developments like Grayscale's ETP approval and the acceleration of ETF application processes. The expansion of altcoin derivatives trading on the CME also signals growing market maturity. While the impact of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts remains limited, increased investment in artificial intelligence is providing a boost to the ecosystem. Despite neutral technical indicators, fundamentals are steadily building positive momentum, leading us to maintain a neutral to slightly bullish bias.

・Grayscale's Multi-Asset Crypto ETP Approved in the US, Including Ethereum The SEC's approval of Grayscale's Digital Large Cap Fund (GLDC) marks a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency market overall. This ETP provides exposure to five major cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano—making access to Ethereum easier for institutional investors. Consequently, new capital inflows into Ethereum are anticipated, potentially contributing to price stabilization and appreciation. This also indicates progress in the approval of crypto ETPs within the United States, thereby heightening expectations for the future approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. ・CME to Launch Solana and XRP Futures Options in October CME Group's launch of futures options trading for Solana and XRP on October 13th signifies the expansion of the institutional derivatives market for these altcoins. This reflects the increasing institutional interest in altcoins that attract liquidity and attention second only to Ethereum, potentially creating a ripple effect on the Ethereum options market as well. Ethereum's futures and options market is already thriving, and the expansion of derivatives markets for these altcoins enhances overall market maturity and further diversifies investment opportunities related to Ethereum. ・SEC Approves Standard to Streamline Crypto ETF Approval Process in the US The SEC's approval of a standard that eliminates the need for individual reviews for crypto ETFs could significantly accelerate the approval process for future spot Ethereum ETFs. This allows for the faster approval of more crypto ETFs, facilitating easier market entry for institutional investors. The approval of a spot Ethereum ETF is expected to drive substantial capital inflows into the market, significantly impacting Ethereum's price. This regulatory easing serves as a positive factor for the Ethereum ecosystem as a whole. ・US Federal Reserve (Fed) Implements 0.25% Rate Cut; Market Reaction Limited The Federal Reserve's implementation of a 0.25% interest rate cut is generally viewed as positive for the cryptocurrency market, especially for risk assets like Ethereum. However, the market had largely priced in this rate cut, resulting in a limited short-term impact on prices. Outlooks regarding further rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 remain divided among FOMC members, contributing to market uncertainty about the future direction of monetary policy. While rate cuts are expected to inject liquidity and encourage investment in risk assets over the long term, balancing this with inflation control remains crucial. ・Ethereum's Unstaking Queue Extended to 45 Days; Vitalik Buterin Addresses Concerns The extension of Ethereum's unstaking queue could potentially raise concerns regarding liquidity. However, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has addressed these concerns, describing the unstaking process not as a "direct" withdrawal but rather as a more strategic procedure. This pertains to the core mechanics of Ethereum's Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mechanism, indicating a prioritization of long-term network stability and security over immediate liquidity considerations. While this situation may have minimal impact on long-term Ethereum investors, it could present a concern for those prioritizing short-term liquidity. ・DBS, Franklin Templeton, and Ripple Launch Tokenized Lending Services The launch of tokenized lending services on the XRP Ledger by major financial institutions including DBS, Franklin Templeton, and Ripple signifies the deepening integration of traditional finance and blockchain technology. This offers new opportunities for institutional investors to manage liquidity and generate yield by leveraging tokenized assets. As Ethereum remains a cutting-edge platform within the DeFi space, this also suggests the potential for these institutions to explore Ethereum-based solutions. The expansion of tokenized assets is poised to further broaden Ethereum's use cases. ・Nvidia Invests $683 Million in UK AI Firm Linked to Crypto Miners Nvidia's substantial investment in Nscale, an AI firm associated with cryptocurrency miners, underscores the significance of the synergy between AI and blockchain technology. Investment in AI infrastructure has the potential to accelerate the development of blockchain technologies, particularly the creation of complex applications on smart contract platforms like Ethereum. Advances in AI could serve as a catalyst for innovation across various sectors within the Ethereum ecosystem, including staking, DeFi, and NFTs. [Overall Summary] The SEC's streamlining of the crypto ETF approval process and Grayscale's multi-asset ETP approval are facilitating institutional access to Ethereum, signaling potential for substantial market inflows. CME's launch of Solana and XRP futures options indicates growth in the altcoin derivatives market, with expected spillover effects anticipated for the Ethereum market. While the Fed's rate cut had a limited short-term impact, the prospective long-term liquidity injection may positively influence Ethereum's price, and increased investment in AI is poised to boost the overall development of the Ethereum ecosystem.

Uncertainty surrounding the Fed's monetary policy, particularly the outlook for further interest rate cuts, could influence short-term market sentiment. The lengthening unstaking queue for Ethereum raises slight liquidity concerns, but counterarguments from Vitalik Buterin suggest it does not pose a threat to long-term stability. A key support level is positioned around $4,347.

Over the next 24-48 hours, the market is expected to see modest price action within the current range, with potential reactions to ETF-related news flow. Looking at the weekly outlook, strong fundamentals could support scenarios where the upper range boundary is tested, or a breakout occurs. Key catalysts remain the ongoing anticipation surrounding ETF approvals and the release of macroeconomic data.

Overall, the Ethereum market is underpinned by robust fundamentals driven by growing institutional adoption. While short-term technical indicators suggest a neutral stance, the long-term bullish trend is expected to remain intact. The expedited ETF approval process by the SEC further fuels anticipation for spot ETF approval, potentially serving as a powerful catalyst towards achieving new all-time highs. From an investment strategy perspective, buying the dip near the current price zone of $4,600 presents a viable approach. We recommend capitalizing on approaches towards the short-term support level near $4,500, or the more significant support at $4,347, as opportunities to build positions. For short-term profit targets, consider aiming for the recent high of $4,763, with a potential extension towards $5,000 if this resistance is overcome. Crucially, stop-loss orders should be placed below the $4,347 support, or more strictly, below $4,200, to cap downside risk. This week, a decisive breakout above $4,763 serves as a critical checkpoint. Successfully surpassing this level is likely to fuel further upward momentum. Conversely, a breach below $4,347 could indicate weakening market sentiment and introduce the risk of a trend reversal, necessitating caution. From a risk management perspective, maintaining vigilance over external factors, including macroeconomic data releases and SEC regulatory actions, and managing position sizes accordingly is paramount. Against this backdrop of positive fundamentals, Ethereum possesses considerable potential for ongoing value appreciation. Adopting a long-term outlook and refraining from overreacting to short-term volatility will enable investors to ride this growth wave. Let's leverage these exciting market opportunities through disciplined strategy and sound decision-making.