Japan's tax reform, including lower tax rates and the introduction of a loss carryforward system, is a significant positive factor poised to substantially increase investment appetite for ETH. Although the delay in US ETF approvals introduces short-term resistance, Bitcoin's MACD golden cross is fostering a bullish sentiment in the overall market, hinting at the potential for ETH to follow suit. While concerns regarding China's regulatory tightening represent a risk factor, the ongoing expansion of global adoption and technological innovation provide counterbalancing positive momentum. Overall, the outlook is assessed as neutral to cautiously optimistic.

Fundamental Analysis (September 10, 2025) 1. Chinese Authorities Considering Stricter Regulations on Stablecoin and Cryptocurrency Businesses in Hong Kong Reports suggest that Chinese authorities are considering policies to restrict stablecoin and cryptocurrency-related initiatives by mainland Chinese state-owned enterprises and banks operating in Hong Kong. This could potentially lead these entities to forgo applications under Hong Kong's licensing regime, raising concerns about the impact on efforts to establish Hong Kong as an Asian cryptocurrency hub. The potential tightening of regulations indicates the authorities' intent to minimize spillover effects on mainland China's financial system, prompting global stablecoin issuers and related companies to re-evaluate regulatory risks. While the direct impact on ETH price is expected to be limited, ongoing monitoring of cryptocurrency regulatory trends in Asia remains crucial. 2. Expansion of Bitcoin ETF Options Trading in the US (See Articles 10, 31, 38, etc.) The expansion of options trading for Bitcoin ETFs in the United States may foster greater institutional participation and potentially contribute to Bitcoin price stabilization. The growth of the options market is expected to enhance liquidity and mitigate volatility. This anticipates new capital inflows, serving as a foundation for medium-to-long-term price appreciation. As ETH could potentially follow a similar ETF approval trajectory, potential ripple effects for the ETH market can be expected from this development. 3. Japan's Crypto Tax Reform: Maximum Tax Rate Lowered from 55% to 20%, Introduction of 3-Year Loss Carryforward (See Article 6) Japan's significant cryptocurrency tax reform, lowering the maximum tax rate from 55% to 20%, is a highly positive development for both domestic and international investors. The implementation of a three-year loss carryforward provision will enable investors to manage portfolio risk more effectively, potentially encouraging more proactive investment strategies. This tax reform could position Japan as a forward-thinking cryptocurrency hub, accelerating capital inflows into domestic exchanges and related companies. It stands to boost investment appetite for major cryptocurrencies, including ETH. 4. US SEC Postpones Approval Decisions for Crypto ETFs from BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Others (See Article 27) The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on cryptocurrency ETFs (including those related to Ethereum, Solana, XRP, etc.) from major asset managers like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton, representing a setback for the market. Ideally, the approval of these ETFs would have spurred greater institutional adoption, enhancing overall market liquidity and driving price increases. The delay signals the regulator's cautious approach to understanding and establishing oversight frameworks for the cryptocurrency market, tempering short-term expectations for price rallies. The delay in spot ETH ETF approvals will exert direct downward pressure on ETH's price. 5. Bitcoin Price Potential to Reach $160,000 with MACD Golden Cross (Analyst Forecast) (See Articles 5, 14, 28, 37, 38) The emergence of a golden cross on Bitcoin's MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator signals a potential shift into a bull market based on historical patterns, with analysts forecasting a potential target of $160,000 or higher. This could disseminate optimistic sentiment throughout the market, likely exerting a positive influence on altcoins, particularly ETH. Bitcoin's price rallies often serve as a leading indicator for the broader altcoin market, potentially driving capital inflows into ETH. Furthermore, slowing PPI inflation figures are bolstering expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, providing a tailwind for risk assets broadly. 6. Hyperliquid Achieves $330 Billion Monthly Trading Volume with Just 11 Staff via Dual-Chain Design (See Articles 17, 23) Hyperliquid's accomplishment of achieving $330 billion in monthly trading volume with a lean team of just 11 individuals, leveraging its dual-chain architecture and incentive mechanisms, underscores the potential for technological innovation and efficiency within DeFi platforms. This could represent an emerging trend known as "Fat Apps," defined as applications built on the blockchain that capture greater value than the underlying blockchain infrastructure, potentially diminishing the relative dependency on platforms like ETH. Conversely, it may also contribute to the broader growth of the ETH ecosystem. This development is relevant to addressing ETH's gas fee challenges and the advancement of Layer 2 solutions, highlighting the significance of innovative application development on the ETH platform. 7. Sub-Saharan Africa Ranks 3rd Globally in Cryptocurrency Adoption Growth (See Article 34) Sub-Saharan Africa's ranking as the third fastest-growing region for cryptocurrency adoption serves as a prominent indicator of the global expansion of cryptocurrency usage. It suggests that digital assets are providing practical utility, especially in areas grappling with currency devaluation and inadequate access to traditional financial systems. This trend highlights increasing interest in crypto within emerging markets and could translate into the acquisition of new user bases for globally accessible platforms such as ETH. 8. Launch of Dogecoin ETF in the US Heightens Focus on Speculation within the Crypto Industry (See Articles 7, 31) The launch of the first Dogecoin ETF in the United States marks a novel progression towards the ETF-ization of meme coins, further spotlighting the speculative dimension within the cryptocurrency industry. Distinct from Bitcoin ETFs, this offers investment avenues into a more entertainment-oriented asset class, while also potentially increasing market volatility. Although differing in nature from assets with broader utility cases like ETH, the trend of ETF creation indicates the increasing maturity of the crypto market and its ability to meet diverse institutional demands, which could indirectly elevate interest in the ETH market as well. Overall Summary Yesterday's cryptocurrency market dynamics were characterized by conflicting influences, with positive developments such as Japan's tax reform juxtaposed with negative news like delayed ETF approvals in the US. Bitcoin's MACD golden cross has heightened expectations for a bull market trend, potentially creating positive spillover effects for ETH. Conversely, concerns regarding tightening regulations in China and delays in ETF approvals are contributing to market uncertainty. Looking ahead, macroeconomic indicators and evolving regulatory landscapes across different nations will remain primary drivers impacting ETH's price.

Key downside risks for ETH include potential delays in spot ETF approvals by the US SEC, spillover effects from tightened regulations by Chinese authorities, and profit-taking selling pressure. The critical support level is the recent low of $4,256; a break below this level could lead to a drop towards $4,000. As the overall market is highly sensitive to Bitcoin's performance, a sharp downturn in BTC could negatively impact ETH as well.

Over the next 24-48 hours, Bitcoin is expected to experience modest gains or trade within a range, contingent on its momentum and the market's reaction to Japan's tax reforms. While the delay in US ETF approvals may cap upside potential, bullish macro-economic indicators should support ETH. In the medium term, inflows from the Japanese market and anticipation surrounding ETF approvals could serve as gradual drivers for ETH's price. Key catalysts to watch include further updates on US ETFs and news concerning new global adoption.

Overall, the ETH market is expected to trade sideways to slightly bullish, influenced by the strong tailwind from Japan's tax reforms, while facing the short-term headwind of delayed US ETF approvals. Bitcoin's MACD golden cross is improving overall market sentiment, potentially creating positive spillover effects for ETH. In the near term, breaking the resistance at $4,468 is key; surpassing this level could pave the way towards $4,500 and subsequently $4,600. Potential downside risks include a failure to hold the support at $4,256, which could lead to a decline towards $4,000. As a trading strategy, given the current range-bound conditions, it is prudent to avoid premature entries. Consider buying on dips near the $4,256 support level or implementing a breakout strategy on confirmation above $4,468. Profit targets should be placed between $4,500 and $4,600, while setting stop-loss orders approximately 5% below the entry point or on a breach of $4,256 is crucial for risk management. This week requires monitoring US inflation data releases and any further statements from global regulators. Importantly, new information concerning ETF approvals could trigger significant market movements. Should inflows from the Japanese market become substantial, ETH could strengthen its foundation and establish a more stable upward trend. Staying vigilant to market volatility and making rational, unemotional decisions are key to succeeding in this uncertain environment. Let's approach the market with optimism and a disciplined strategy.