While five consecutive trading days of outflows from Ethereum ETFs are exerting short-term downward pressure, the unprecedented shift to a negative net flow of ETH from exchanges marks a significant bullish signal, indicative of accumulation for long-term holding. Furthermore, regulatory clarity and sustained institutional interest act as positive catalysts, resulting in a market bias assessed as neutral to slightly bullish.

Fundamental Analysis ・Ethereum ETF Sees Five Consecutive Days of Outflows US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows on four days during the shortened Labor Day week. This contrasts with the robust net inflows of $3.87 billion into Ethereum ETFs during August. Outflows on Friday alone amounted to $446.8 million, bringing the total weekly net outflow to $787.6 million. This could exert downward pressure on Ethereum's price in the short term. ・Bitcoin Price Plummets from $113,400 Following Weak Jobs Data Following the release of US employment data on Friday, which fell short of market expectations, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp decline from its high of $113,400 to below $111,000. This triggered the liquidation of leveraged bullish positions. This could impact market sentiment over the weekend, potentially causing temporary downward pressure on altcoins, including Ethereum. ・Ethereum Exchange Net Flow Turns Negative for the First Time The cumulative net flow balance of Ethereum (ETH) into exchanges has turned negative for the first time on record. Based on historical data, this suggests investors are withdrawing ETH from exchanges and accumulating it for the long term, which can be interpreted as a bullish signal. If this trend continues, it could potentially support an upward movement in Ethereum's price. ・US Senate Adds Clause to Crypto Bill Maintaining Tokenized Stocks as Securities The US Senate has updated its market structure bill for digital assets, adding a provision that clarifies that tokenized stocks and other securities will continue to be classified as securities even when tokenized on a blockchain. This increases regulatory clarity for digital asset issuers and potentially promotes the healthy growth of the tokenization market. This could become a catalyst for the adoption of security tokenization on smart contract platforms like Ethereum. ・ARK Invest Expands Holdings in BitMine and Bullish ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, further purchased shares in BitMine Immersion Technologies and the cryptocurrency exchange Bullish. This indicates continued institutional interest and investment in crypto-related companies. This demonstration of investor confidence could improve overall market sentiment and encourage investment in major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum. ・Tether Discusses Investment in Gold Supply Chain Tether (USDT), the issuer of the stablecoin, is reportedly in discussions regarding capital deployment into the gold supply chain. This move aims to further diversify Tether's portfolio, increasing its correlation with traditional assets. In the event of macroeconomic events that could shake confidence in the crypto market, particularly stablecoins, Tether's stability, backed by gold, could serve as a stabilizing factor for the broader market. ・Trump-Associated WLFI Drops 40%, Causing Millions in Losses for Crypto Whales The World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token, associated with Donald Trump, has fallen over 40% since its launch, resulting in significant losses for some investors. This serves as a cautionary tale for investors deploying capital into high-risk projects. While failures of such projects can temporarily impact trust in the broader crypto market, they also highlight the importance of established platforms like Ethereum. ・Trump Media Partners with Crypto.com, Building $6.4 Billion CRO Reserve Trump Media & Technology Group has partnered with Crypto.com, accumulating a reserve of Cronos (CRO) tokens valued at $6.4 billion. This exemplifies the increasing involvement of prominent figures and corporations in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Such partnerships can drive crypto adoption and attract new investor demographics. The accumulation of CRO tokens signals confidence in the Cronos ecosystem, potentially influencing competing platforms like Ethereum indirectly. ・Major Brazilian Asset Manager Establishes Dedicated Crypto Division Itaú Asset Management, Brazil's largest private asset manager, has established a dedicated digital assets division. This signals growing institutional interest in digital assets within emerging markets and indicates market maturation. Such initiatives can enhance trust in the crypto market, encouraging greater institutional participation and potentially accelerating the adoption of major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum. Overall Summary Yesterday, the cryptocurrency market experienced temporary downward pressure on Bitcoin prices due to weak US employment data; however, the historic negative net flow of Ethereum from exchanges is noteworthy as a sign of bullish accumulation. Furthermore, the US Senate's regulatory clarification on tokenized securities and ARK Invest's continued investments in crypto-related companies suggest growing institutional interest and market maturation. Overall, despite short-term price volatility factors, numerous news items indicated potential for medium to long-term market growth and a strengthening position for Ethereum.

Near-term risks include persistent outflows from Ethereum ETFs. Furthermore, the sharp decline in BTC following weak employment data may impact market sentiment, potentially spilling over to altcoins. The critical support level is the recent low of $4,242; a break below this level increases the downside risk towards $4,000. The persistence of these ETF outflows is a key factor to monitor.

Over the next 24-48 hours, stabilization in ETF flows and a recovery in market sentiment will be key. While consolidation is expected, a gradual upward move is possible if accumulation signals gain dominance. On a weekly basis, sustained ETH exchange outflows, if confirmed, could drive positive momentum. Regulatory news may also act as a catalyst.

Yesterday's market experienced a Bitcoin (BTC) decline following weaker-than-expected US employment data. However, Ethereum's (ETH) net flow from exchanges turning negative for the first time on record acts as a strong accumulation signal, bolstering medium-to-long-term bullish sentiment. While short-term outflows from ETFs may exert pressure, the pursuit of regulatory clarity and sustained institutional interest suggest market maturation. Technically, the market resides within a neutral range. Nevertheless, prioritizing the fundamental accumulation signals, we adopt a neutral-to-slightly-bullish stance. **Investment Strategy:** Closely monitor ETF outflow trends and the maintenance of the $4,242 support level. Should support hold and ETF outflows continue, we anticipate upward movement towards $4,487 and $4,500. Entries are recommended around the $4,242 support or upon confirming a breakout above the upper $4,400s. Set profit targets between $4,450-$4,500, with a stop-loss placed near $4,100. This week's key focus areas are ETF liquidity and regulatory news. For risk management, remain vigilant against shifts towards negative sentiment and manage position sizes appropriately. Let's aim for steady returns by closely monitoring these factors.