Growing stablecoin demand fueled by AI agents, a sharp rise in DeFi lending, and the recommencement of crypto custody services by major banks signal institutional investor-led market maturation and expanding real-world use cases. Meanwhile, outflows from ETH ETFs indicate a short-term rotation into safe-haven assets, though overall market sentiment remains neutral to mildly bullish.

・AI agents emerge as key users of stablecoins The potential future where AI agents automate daily transactions could significantly boost demand for stablecoins, accelerating their adoption and fostering growth across the entire blockchain ecosystem. Specifically, the development of AI-integrated payment solutions will broaden the use cases for cryptocurrencies and further attract institutional investor interest. ・DeFi lending protocols surge 72%, highlighting institutional interest in stablecoins and tokenized assets The 72% surge in DeFi lending protocols indicates growing institutional interest in stablecoins and tokenized assets. This suggests enhanced credibility for the DeFi ecosystem and the potential for greater institutional capital inflows, which could drive demand for foundational cryptocurrencies like ETH. Specifically, the increase in Total Value Locked (TVL) within lending protocols serves as an indicator of the overall market's maturity and vibrancy. ・US Bancorp resumes crypto custody services following regulatory changes under the Trump administration The resumption of cryptocurrency custody services by major banks like US Bancorp, following regulatory changes under the Trump administration, indicates progress in creating a more accessible environment for institutional entry into the digital asset market. This trend accelerates the integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional financial markets, enhancing overall market trust and stability. Strengthened custody functions offered by banks mitigate security concerns, likely encouraging further institutional inflows. ・Bitcoin potentially avoids "Red September" decline for the third consecutive year Bitcoin potentially breaking the historical pattern of September declines for the third consecutive year could positively impact market sentiment. Overcoming seasonal downward trends enhances expectations for Bitcoin's price stability and contributes to improved investor sentiment. If this trend continues, confidence in Bitcoin's price performance is likely to increase, attracting further capital inflows. ・CZ-owned Trust Wallet launches tokenized stocks and ETFs The launch of tokenized stocks and ETFs by Trust Wallet, owned by CZ, signifies further advancements in the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWAs). This positions cryptocurrency wallets as potential access points to traditional financial instruments, broadening the scope of the crypto market. Such developments are likely to increase opportunities for institutional investors to engage with the crypto ecosystem, promoting overall market liquidity and integration. ・US rises to 2nd in crypto adoption, with APAC region showing the most growth The rise of the US to second place in cryptocurrency adoption, coupled with significant growth in the APAC region, highlights the expansion and diversification of the global crypto market. Regulatory clarity and ETF developments, particularly in the US, are fostering institutional participation and contributing to market maturation. This trend of increasing global adoption is expected to structurally drive long-term demand for major cryptocurrencies, including ETH. ・OKX fined $2.6 million in the Netherlands for unlicensed operations ahead of MiCA implementation The USD 2.6 million fine imposed on OKX for unlicensed operations in the Netherlands, prior to the implementation of MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation), underscores the increasing scrutiny from regulators within the crypto space. This emphasizes the critical importance of compliance and may enhance investor trust in platforms that demonstrate a cooperative approach with regulatory bodies. This action, preceding the EU's MiCA framework, suggests a potential trend of intensified regulatory enforcement in other jurisdictions, contributing to greater market transparency. ・Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows surge while Ether funds see outflows, signaling a shift to safer assets Significant inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs alongside outflows from Ether ETFs suggest a potential investor rotation towards safer, more established asset classes. This highlights the market's sensitivity to shifting sentiment and macroeconomic factors, which could influence ETH's price dynamics. However, the robust demand for Bitcoin ETFs still signals sustained institutional interest in the crypto market, potentially offering indirect benefits to the ETH market as well. ・Cryptocurrencies expected to process one-tenth of post-trade market by 2030: Citi research Research by Citi suggests that tokenized assets and stablecoins are poised to handle a significant portion, potentially one-tenth, of the post-trade market by 2030. This indicates a potential widespread adoption of blockchain technology as foundational financial infrastructure, thereby increasing the value of underlying blockchain platforms like ETH. This trend is expected to drive growth in areas such as Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWAs), leading to increased utilization of the ETH network. ・Coinbase launches futures index combining cryptocurrencies and technology stocks Coinbase's launch of a futures index combining cryptocurrencies and technology stocks signifies the ongoing convergence between traditional financial markets and the digital asset space. This product allows investors to access a diverse range of asset classes through a single contract, potentially facilitating new capital inflows into the crypto market. This initiative is likely to enhance the institutional acceptance of cryptocurrencies, including ETH. Overall Summary News highlighting increased stablecoin usage driven by AI agents, the expansion of the DeFi lending market, and the resumption of cryptocurrency custody services by major US banks collectively indicate a market maturing under institutional influence and demonstrating increasing utility. Concurrently, the growth phase is accompanied by tightening regulatory oversight, underscoring the critical importance of compliance. While these combined factors may introduce short-term volatility, the ETH price is expected to trend favorably in the medium to long term, mirroring the overall growth trajectory of the crypto market.

The fine against OKX and outflows from ETH ETFs signal risks related to tightening regulations and volatile market sentiment. The key support level is the recent low of $4,242; a break below this level could intensify downward pressure. Macroeconomic indicators and regulatory developments warrant continued attention.

Short-term (24-48 hours): Despite positive fundamental factors, the market is technically expected to remain range-bound. Mid-term (1 week): While inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could potentially drive ETH higher, careful monitoring of outflow trends from ETH ETFs is necessary. Progress in the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA) is likely to serve as a catalyst.

The Ethereum market is maturing, supported by institutional-driven fundamentals including increased stablecoin demand fueled by AI agents, a surge in DeFi lending, and the resumption of crypto custody services by major banks. While expectations for medium-to-long-term value appreciation remain high, the fine imposed on OKX and outflows from ETH ETFs signal risks related to heightened regulatory scrutiny and shifting market sentiment. Technically, indicators such as the RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands suggest a range-bound market within neutral territory, indicating that further catalysts are needed for a clear trend reversal. Our overall assessment is neutral in the short term, but optimistic regarding the potential for a medium-to-long-term upward trend, underpinned by strong fundamentals. As an investment strategy, we recommend considering buys on dips near the recent low of $4,242 and scaling into positions upon confirmation of a breakout above the $4,654 resistance level. Set profit targets at $5,000, with a stop-loss placed below the $4,000 mark. Key levels to watch this week are the maintenance of support at $4,242 and the potential breakout above the $4,654 resistance. Monitor ETH ETF flows, monetary policy updates, and regulatory announcements, while capturing growth opportunities through disciplined trading.