The potential for a US government shutdown is boosting Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the crypto market. Reports indicating that a significant portion of stablecoin transactions are bot-driven, while potentially enhancing market efficiency, also raise concerns about real demand. Metaplanet's substantial Bitcoin purchases demonstrate continued institutional confidence and adoption, signaling a positive trend. Considering these factors, the overall market bias is assessed as neutral to slightly bullish.

・Potential US Government Shutdown and Market Bottom Signals in Cryptocurrency The possibility of a US government shutdown is accelerating the movement of investor funds into Bitcoin and gold as safe-haven assets, suggesting a potential bottoming out in the cryptocurrency market. While past instances of government disruption have often increased market uncertainty and led to capital flight from risk assets, Bitcoin's strengthening role as a safe-haven asset this time could potentially support the overall market bottom. This could serve as a catalyst for institutional investors to more actively evaluate Bitcoin as part of their portfolio risk diversification strategy. ・Report: Over 70% of Stablecoin Transactions Attributed to Bots While third-quarter stablecoin trading volume reached an all-time high, it has been revealed that a significant portion was driven by automated bot trading. This indicates that the majority of transactions stem not from real-economy usage but from algorithmic trading and arbitrage, potentially raising concerns about stablecoin liquidity and overall market integrity. However, increased bot activity can also enhance market efficiency by potentially accelerating price discovery mechanisms. Institutional investors are likely analyzing bot activity patterns as a factor in forecasting market trends. ・Shifting Concept of Alternative Assets and Blockchain Technology Utilization Alternative assets such as fine wine, art, and luxury watches are diminishing their "alternative" character due to digitalization and fractional ownership enabled by blockchain technology, allowing for 24/7 accessibility. This broadens investor access to these assets, creating new investment opportunities. For institutional investors, this potentially facilitates investment in previously hard-to-access alternative asset classes, contributing to portfolio diversification. ・Tornado Cash Co-founder's Not Guilty Plea Challenges Conviction Roman Storm, a co-founder of Tornado Cash, is seeking acquittal, arguing the prosecution failed to prove intent regarding his conviction related to money laundering charges. The outcome of this trial could set a significant precedent regarding the legal status of mixer services and the scope of developer liability. Regulators' approaches to privacy-enhancing technologies will likely influence future regulatory trends in the cryptocurrency industry. ・Metaplanet's Major Bitcoin Acquisition Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has purchased approximately $600 million worth of additional Bitcoin, elevating its position to fourth place in corporate Bitcoin holdings rankings. This signifies continued institutional-level adoption of Bitcoin by corporations, further solidifying its status as "digital gold." Such large-scale acquisitions can foster market confidence and potentially encourage further institutional participation, acting as a bullish pressure on Bitcoin's price. ・Anticipation for "Uptober" and Bullish Bitcoin Signals Following Bitcoin's upward price movement in September, expectations are rising for further gains in October, dubbed "Uptober." The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) RSI flashing a "buy" signal, coupled with long-term holders accumulating Bitcoin, suggests a potential transition into a bull market. Historically, September rallies have often preceded subsequent rallies in October, and institutional investors are likely closely monitoring these signals to formulate their strategies. ・BNB Chain X Account Hacked, Warning Issued Against Phishing Scams The official X (formerly Twitter) account of BNB Chain was compromised, leading to the propagation of phishing links. This highlights the significant security risks associated with cryptocurrency-related social media accounts, demanding constant user vigilance. While such security incidents can undermine overall market confidence, they also serve as opportunities to re-emphasize the importance of robust security measures. Institutional investors need to re-evaluate the security protocols for their own holdings and trading platforms. ・Cryptocurrencies Necessary for AI Agents in Financial Markets, Says Coinbase Executive A Coinbase executive pointed out that cryptocurrencies are essential for AI agents to function effectively in financial markets. The executive argued that legacy financial system infrastructure is outdated, making blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies indispensable for AI to conduct accurate, source-based trading on behalf of individuals. This suggests that the convergence of AI and blockchain technology could significantly reshape future financial markets, prompting institutional investors to explore investment opportunities in new AI-driven financial products and services. ・Ambiguity Surrounding SEC's Plans for Tokenized Stock Trading Approval Reports indicate the SEC is considering plans to permit the trading of equities on the blockchain, but the extent to which this will benefit the broader cryptocurrency industry remains unclear. While tokenized stocks may offer significant advantages to Traditional Finance (TradFi) markets, some analysts believe the benefits for major cryptocurrency projects could be limited. Institutional investors need to carefully assess the potential impact of such regulatory easing on the existing crypto ecosystem. ・Potential EU Ban on Stablecoins by European Regulators European supervisory authorities have reportedly recommended prohibiting stablecoins from multiple issuers. This suggests a potential tightening of stablecoin regulations in Europe, raising concerns about the impact on issuers like Circle and Paxos. Stablecoins are crucial as a foundational element of the cryptocurrency market, and regulatory developments surrounding them could affect overall market stability and growth. Institutional investors must consider regulatory risks when formulating their stablecoin investment strategies. ・Stripe Announces Tool Allowing Stablecoin Issuance with a Few Lines of Code Payments giant Stripe has unveiled "Open Issuance," a tool enabling companies to easily issue and manage their own stablecoins. This could facilitate the issuance of stablecoins and promote their adoption across various businesses. It is expected to accelerate stablecoin proliferation and contribute to the expansion of the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) ecosystem. Institutional investors should pay attention to the market structure changes and new investment opportunities arising from the entry of major companies like Stripe. ・Ripple CTO Steps Down from Daily Operations to Focus on the Board David Schwartz, Ripple's Chief Technology Officer (CTO), has announced he is stepping down from daily operational duties to focus on his role on the board of directors. Schwartz, a key architect of the XRP Ledger, sees his role change potentially impacting Ripple's future technological development and strategy. Given Ripple's ongoing legal battle with the SEC over XRP's status as an unregistered security, this announcement could also be interpreted as a move to concentrate efforts on resolving legal issues. 【Overall Summary】 Yesterday's cryptocurrency market was characterized by news concerning regulation and market integrity, including fears of a US government shutdown, bot activity in stablecoin transactions, and the Tornado Cash legal proceedings. Conversely, several positive developments emerged, such as Metaplanet's significant Bitcoin purchase, optimism surrounding "Uptober," and Stripe's announcement of a stablecoin issuance tool. While these factors intertwined, contributing to short-term price fluctuations, mid-to-long-term trends such as the fusion of AI and blockchain, the digitalization of alternative assets, and expanding institutional participation indicate potential drivers for market growth.

Regulatory risks, such as the Tornado Cash lawsuit and the potential ban on stablecoins in Europe, could exert downward pressure on the overall market. The hacking of the BNB Chain X account highlights risks related to cascading security incidents and phishing scams, prompting increased vigilance. The prevalence of bot-driven trading represents a potential concern for market integrity. These factors could potentially trigger unforeseen downturns, necessitating careful monitoring.

**Outlook** **Short-term (24-48 hours):** Concerns surrounding a potential government shutdown and consistent institutional buying are underpinning the market, while regulatory developments remain a significant source of volatility. **Medium-term (1 week):** A continuation of the upward trend is expected, provided that positive regulatory news emerges and institutional demand remains robust. **Long-term:** Underlying trends, including the convergence of AI agents and blockchain technology, as well as the digitalization of alternative assets, are likely to sustain market interest. **Key Catalysts:** Notable catalysts include official statements from regulatory bodies and the announcement of blockchain strategies by major corporations.

Overall, the market maintains a neutral to slightly bullish bias. Inflows into safe-haven assets driven by concerns over a potential US government shutdown, significant Bitcoin purchases by Metaplanet, and anticipation for 'Uptober' suggest potential consolidation and upward momentum for the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin. However, risks concerning regulation and market integrity cannot be ignored. These include the prevalence of bots in stablecoin transactions, the Tornado Cash legal proceedings, and the potential for stricter stablecoin regulations in Europe. Such factors introduce uncertainty and could heighten short-term market volatility. Our recommended action plan for investors is a strategy of tactical dip-buying in the short term. Consider entering positions especially when major regulatory news develops favorably or further institutional accumulation is confirmed. Set stop-loss levels based on recent support zones and volatility, ensuring strict risk management. This week warrants close attention to regulatory developments and announcements regarding blockchain strategies from major corporations. These catalysts could potentially facilitate a breakout from the current range-bound market. Looking long-term, trends like the convergence of AI and blockchain, and the tokenization of alternative assets, are poised to drive market growth. Strategic investment decisions coupled with robust risk management are key to navigating opportunities in this dynamic and volatile environment.