The expansion of Bitcoin ETF options trading in the United States is expected to attract institutional investors, thereby fostering market stabilization. Outflows from large cryptocurrency funds are exerting short-term downward pressure. While oversold signals for Ethereum suggest a potential near-term reversal, the overall bias remains neutral due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

・US Sees Expansion in Bitcoin ETF Options Trading SEC regulatory easing is fostering increased institutional participation, potentially stabilizing Bitcoin prices. The growth of the options market is expected to enhance liquidity and curb volatility. This is anticipated to attract new capital inflows, providing support for medium-to-long term price appreciation. ・Significant $200 Million Outflow from Crypto Funds Hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve have dampened investor sentiment, ending a 15-week trend of inflows with a substantial $200 million outflow from crypto funds. This outflow is exerting short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin's price, and selling pressure may persist amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. ・Ethereum Flashes Rare "Oversold" Signal in Months Ethereum is flashing a rare "oversold" signal on its Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the first time in months. Historically, such extreme oversold conditions have preceded significant price rallies for ETH, hinting at a potential short-term reversal. However, maintaining the $3,800-$3,900 range is critical, as a breakdown below this level risks further losses. ・Bitcoin Returns to "Fear" Levels Last Seen Since $83,000 Peak The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has returned to levels not seen since Bitcoin's peak around $83,000. This signals deteriorating market sentiment, potentially leading to short-term selling pressure. However, historical patterns indicate that such "fear" levels can often precede market reversals. ・Solana Breaks Below $200; ETF Decision Could Trigger Institutional Moment Solana (SOL) has experienced a sharp decline, nearly erasing its recent gains and falling below $200. Despite current bearish technical indicators, the upcoming decision on a spot ETF could act as a catalyst, potentially triggering significant institutional inflows and driving SOL to new all-time highs. The ETF outcome is poised to rapidly influence market sentiment. ・BlackRock Files Bitcoin-Plus-Income ETF as IBIT Sequel Leading asset manager BlackRock has filed for a new ETF designed to generate yield by selling covered call options on Bitcoin futures contracts. While this offers a new income-generating strategy for Bitcoin exposure, it may potentially limit upside price appreciation compared to a spot Bitcoin ETF. ・China Establishes Digital Yuan Hub in Shanghai for Cross-Border Blockchain Services The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has established a new operational hub for the digital yuan (e-CNY) in Shanghai. This initiative aims to enhance the e-CNY's international role, boost cross-border payments, and support blockchain-based services. The global expansion of the e-CNY could impact existing financial systems and the development of other Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). ・Aave V4 Protocol Upgrade Imminent, Slated for Q4 2025 Release Decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Aave plans to release its V4 upgrade in Q4 2025, introducing features such as modular lending markets and enhanced risk management capabilities. This upgrade is expected to foster the maturation and efficiency of the DeFi ecosystem, potentially improving access to a broader range of financial products and services. Overall Summary: The market is navigating a conflict between anticipation surrounding ETF approvals and macroeconomic uncertainty. Bitcoin has reached 'fear' levels, and Ethereum shows oversold signals, while certain altcoins are closely monitoring ETF decisions and regulatory developments. Technological innovations like AI and tokenization represent long-term growth drivers, but short-term price action is expected to remain heavily influenced by institutional flows and macroeconomic indicators.

Deteriorating investor sentiment, fueled by hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bitcoin's descent into 'fear' territory, increases short-term downside risks. Outflows totaling $200 million further exacerbate selling pressure. While identifying precise support levels remains challenging, psychological price points and historical lower range boundaries are critical areas to watch. Continued attention is warranted for macroeconomic data releases and developments from key regulatory authorities.

In the short term, while supported by a bullish MACD crossover, outflows and deteriorating market sentiment are expected to act as a drag, potentially leading to range-bound trading or limited upside. For the medium term (one week), the Solana ETF decision and macroeconomic events will serve as key catalysts influencing sentiment. Technological advancements like Aave V4 are considered long-term growth drivers.

The market sentiment currently reflects a **neutral bias**, balancing the positive impact of the expansion of ETF options against the headwinds of macroeconomic uncertainty and significant capital outflows. Technically, while a bullish MACD crossover suggests potential upside, the RSI remains in neutral territory. Investors should monitor macroeconomic events and ETF developments (especially regarding Solana). Recommended strategies include waiting for clearer market direction or considering buying the dip near support levels. Execute entries cautiously, target short-term resistance levels for profit-taking, and set stop-losses below support to maintain discipline. Crucial risk management involves staying vigilant about regulatory trends and capital outflows, alongside rigorous diversification. Approach the market with optimism and a well-defined, prudent strategy.