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Chainlink (LINK) Market Analysis: October 4, 2025

2025-10-03

Price

$22.66 0.16%

Summary

The integration of cryptocurrency services by major corporations such as Samsung and Walmart is broadening mainstream access and accelerating adoption. Developments regarding the SEC's potential approval of Altcoin ETFs signal market maturation, although a US government shutdown introduces uncertainty. Furthermore, initiatives like CME extending its trading hours to 24/7 and Standard Chartered launching tokenized offerings suggest consistent progress in the integration of crypto with traditional finance. Overall, the market bias remains neutral to slightly bullish.

Fundamentals

・Samsung Enhances Direct Crypto Purchases in Galaxy Wallet Through Coinbase Integration The introduction of direct cryptocurrency purchase functionality within Samsung's Galaxy Wallet is set to significantly improve retail access to digital assets. The implication of 75 million US Galaxy users benefiting from Coinbase One suggests intensified competition for institutional-level client acquisition. This partnership has the potential to accelerate cryptocurrency adoption and boost demand for major currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, particularly within the US market. The trend of major technology companies integrating crypto services into their ecosystems enhances overall market credibility and encourages the entry of new investor demographics. ・Walmart-backed OnePay to Introduce Bitcoin and Ethereum Trading This Year Reports indicate that OnePay, the banking app under the retail giant Walmart, will launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading and custody services within the year. This move signifies a deepening convergence between Traditional Finance (TradFi) and cryptocurrencies. OnePay's ambition to become a "super app," similar to WeChat, aims to mainstream cryptocurrency usage by integrating trading capabilities into existing services like payments, savings, and credit. This is expected to further solidify confidence in cryptocurrencies at the institutional level, especially within the US market, and potentially increase interest in major altcoins. ・"Uptober" Begins Amidst US Government Shutdown; Brazil Attracts Bitcoin Miners: Global Express The onset of October ("Uptober") coincides with a US government shutdown, casting uncertainty over altcoin ETF applications and underscoring the significant impact of regulatory developments on the market. Meanwhile, Brazil's initiative to attract Bitcoin miners highlights the geographic diversification of cross-border mining operations and proactive national stances towards cryptocurrencies. This could influence mining difficulty and hash rate distribution, contributing to Bitcoin's network security and geographic risk diversification in the long term. ・Altcoin ETFs: SEC Adopts New Listing Standards; October is a Decisive Month The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) adopting new listing standards, with October marking the final deadline for 16 altcoin ETF applications, positions this period as a critical juncture for the cryptocurrency market, especially for altcoins. The potential approval of ETFs targeting altcoins beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum (such as Solana, XRP, and Litecoin) could significantly increase institutional capital inflows into these assets. This is expected to enhance overall liquidity in the altcoin market, strengthen price discovery mechanisms, and create new investment opportunities. ・UK Renews Push for Apple iCloud Backdoor, Threatening Crypto Wallet Security The UK government's renewed demand for Apple to create a backdoor into its encrypted iCloud backup service deepens concerns regarding privacy and security trade-offs. This move poses potential risks to asset security, particularly for cryptocurrency users utilizing hardware wallets or cloud backups. Security-conscious investors and institutions may factor in such regulatory risks and seek more secure custody solutions. ・XRP Price Recovers to $3, with Potential for 40% Rise in October The analysis indicating XRP's recovery to $3 and projecting a potential 40% rise in October suggests investor optimism towards this specific altcoin. The strong conviction among holders, especially ahead of ETF decisions, points towards growing institutional interest in altcoins. This sentiment improvement could potentially drive short-term price appreciation for individual altcoins like XRP. ・Nomura Moves to Capture Japan's Thriving Institutional Crypto Market Japanese financial giant Nomura Holdings, through its Swiss subsidiary, is preparing to enter the cryptocurrency market targeting Japanese institutional investors. This move symbolizes the maturation of the crypto market in Asia and the increasing institutional interest in the region. Efforts to obtain licenses in Japan suggest progress in regulatory clarity and the development of an environment conducive to institutional participation, anticipating new capital inflows and enhancing overall market liquidity and credibility. ・Wall Street's Next Crypto Play Might Be Pre-IPO Crypto Firms, Not Altcoins Wall Street's focus shifting towards crypto companies preparing for Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) suggests a search for more stable investment opportunities, distinct from the highly volatile cycles of traditional crypto markets. Reports of multi-billion dollar crypto firms preparing for IPOs indicate potential integration into capital markets via Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) and IPOs. This trend is expected to encourage investment in companies with solid business fundamentals, thereby bolstering overall market confidence. ・SEC Silent on Grayscale's Litecoin ETF Amidst US Government Shutdown Amidst the US government shutdown, the SEC failed to take timely action on Canary Capital's Litecoin ETF application, highlighting uncertainty surrounding regulatory decision-making processes. This delay could impact the approval process for altcoin ETFs, including Litecoin, potentially causing a short-term negative impact on investor sentiment. However, the cautious review process is considered essential for the healthy development of the market in the long run. ・Canaan's Stock Surges on 50,000 Mining Rig Contract Deal Canaan Inc. secured a contract for 50,000 Bitcoin mining rigs, causing its stock price to surge. This signals a recovery and growth phase for the Bitcoin mining industry, potentially leading to increased hashrate and improved mining efficiency, thereby contributing to the security of the Bitcoin network. The rising demand for major mining equipment manufacturers serves as an indicator of the broader Bitcoin mining ecosystem's healthy growth. ・CME Group to Expand 24/7 Crypto Derivatives Trading in 2026 CME Group's plan to offer 24/7 cryptocurrency derivatives trading starting in 2026 is set to dramatically improve market access for institutional investors. This expansion enables trading irrespective of time zones, significantly boosting liquidity and simplifying risk management. It represents crucial infrastructure development for greater institutional engagement in the crypto market, potentially supporting price stabilization and further upside for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. ・Standard Chartered's AlloyX Launches Tokenized Fund on Polygon AlloyX, underwritten by Standard Chartered Bank, has launched a tokenized money market fund on the Polygon network. This significant development underscores the accelerating trend of tokenization for Real World Assets (RWAs), further bridging DeFi and TradFi by introducing new liquidity and investment opportunities. The collaboration with bank custody services aims to create an environment where institutional investors can confidently invest in tokenized assets, thereby enhancing the credibility of the overall crypto market. ・ETHZilla Bets Big on Ethereum's Stablecoin Strategy ETHZilla is focusing heavily on its stablecoin strategy, recognizing Ethereum's potential in the global remittance market. This highlights the growth of the Ethereum ecosystem and the increasing role of stablecoins in international payments. Leveraging Ethereum as a gateway for global USD remittances is expected to streamline cross-border payments, reduce costs, and expand the practical use cases for cryptocurrencies. ・ETH Surges, Suggesting a Bottom; Data Predicts 100% Upside Data analysis indicating Ethereum (ETH) bottomed out at $3,900 and forecasting a potential 100% increase suggests the possibility of a continued upward trend in ETH's price. This is expected to foster positive sentiment across the broader altcoin market and increase investor risk appetite. ETH's strong recovery could stimulate investment within the Ethereum ecosystem, driving growth in related sectors like DeFi and NFTs. ・Bitcoin Clears $120,000; On-Chain Data Signals New Accumulation Phase Bitcoin (BTC) has cleared the $120,000 mark, with on-chain data indicating a new accumulation phase. This suggests the potential for a continuing bull market, characterized by reduced selling pressure from long-term holders and short-term holders absorbing losses, indicating market stabilization and preparation for further price increases. This signals sustained institutional interest in Bitcoin and the potential arrival of new investment opportunities. ・CME Group to Expand 24/7 Crypto Derivatives Trading in 2026 CME Group's plan to offer 24/7 cryptocurrency derivatives trading starting in 2026 is set to dramatically improve market access for institutional investors. This expansion enables trading irrespective of time zones, significantly boosting liquidity and simplifying risk management. It represents crucial infrastructure development for greater institutional engagement in the crypto market, potentially supporting price stabilization and further upside for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. 【Overall Summary】 The integration of cryptocurrency services into platforms by major technology and retail companies is simplifying retail access and accelerating adoption. Regulatory advancements toward approving altcoin ETFs are promoting market maturation and institutional participation, although government shutdowns introduce uncertainty. Overall, the convergence with TradFi, evolving regulatory landscapes, and technological innovation are expected to drive sustained growth in the crypto market and price appreciation for major currencies centered around Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Chart Analysis

Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Chainlink (LINK) is at 58.8, residing in neutral territory, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD shows no crossover, lacking clear signs of a trend reversal. Price action within the Bollinger Bands suggests that volatility is currently subdued. The asset is trading within the range defined by the recent high of $23 and the recent low of $20, with no distinct chart pattern formed.

Key Price Levels

Support levels are at $20 (recent low) and $18 (psychological level). Resistance levels are at $23 (recent high) and $25 (psychological level). A decisive breakout above $25 would suggest a potential shift to an uptrend, while a breakdown below $20 increases the risk of transitioning into a downtrend. Take-profit targets are set at $23, $25, and $27, with stop-loss levels planned for $19 and $18. These levels are crucial from a risk management perspective, considering market volatility.

Risk Analysis

Delays in, or potential rejections of, Altcoin ETF approvals by the SEC, alongside a prolonged US government shutdown, could dampen market sentiment. Furthermore, the UK's demand for backdoor access to iCloud could exacerbate privacy and security concerns, raising investor caution. The critical support level is identified at $20, representing the recent low, acting as both psychological and technical support. Continued vigilance regarding official regulatory statements and macroeconomic shifts is warranted.

Outlook

In the short term (24-48 hours), technical indicators suggest neutrality, but positive fundamentals, such as institutional adoption and integration with Traditional Finance (TradFi), are providing underlying support. The market is likely to continue trading within a range, pending the SEC's decision. In the medium term (1 week), the news flow surrounding altcoin ETF approvals will likely determine the market's direction. Positive developments could catalyze a breakout, whereas negative news or an escalating government shutdown scenario increases downside risk. Key catalysts to watch include the SEC's ETF review outcomes, developments in major altcoins, and regulatory announcements from various governments.

Conclusion

While the current LINK market is technically range-bound and neutral, its fundamentals are robust, supported by numerous bullish catalysts. These include the integration of cryptocurrency services by major corporations like Samsung and Walmart, the expansion of 24-hour trading by the CME, and the launch of tokenized loans by Standard Chartered. Our overall market bias is assessed as 'neutral to slightly bullish.' This reflects the accelerating convergence between traditional finance (TradFi) and cryptocurrencies, coupled with the ongoing development of infrastructure that facilitates institutional adoption. However, this outlook is tempered by persistent risks, such as the uncertainty surrounding SEC approvals for altcoin ETFs and potential U.S. government shutdowns. As an actionable strategy for investors, we anticipate short-term trading within the $20-$23 range. We recommend buying near the $20 support level or entering on a retest after a breakout above $25. Potential take-profit targets are set at $23, $25, and potentially extending to $27 and $30. Stop-loss orders should be considered around $19-$18, should the price break below the lower range boundary. Key price levels to monitor this week are $20 (support) and $25 (resistance). Strategically, building long positions near $20 or executing buy-on-dip strategies following a decisive breakout above the $25 resistance are considered effective tactics. From a risk management standpoint, a rapid stop-loss is essential if the price falls below $20, as this would indicate a negative shift in market sentiment. Additionally, ongoing monitoring of SEC announcements regarding ETFs is crucial due to their potential to trigger significant market volatility. The cryptocurrency market continues its dynamic evolution, and the increasing institutional involvement and infrastructure improvements are establishing a strong foundation for medium-to-long-term growth. LINK demonstrates the potential to benefit from these positive trends and achieve further value appreciation. Navigating the current range-bound conditions requires a calm assessment, strict adherence to risk management, and capturing opportunities with a medium-to-long-term perspective. We urge investors to make informed decisions and employ strategic approaches in this evolving market landscape.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Cryptocurrency investments carry high price volatility risks. Please make investment decisions at your own discretion and responsibility.