Key drivers include demand for Bitcoin (BTC) as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over a potential US government shutdown, the dominance of bots in stablecoin trading, and significant Bitcoin purchases by Metaplanet. Accelerated integration with traditional finance, including developments involving the SEC and Chainlink, is also impacting the market. The overall market bias is neutral.

### Analysis of Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market (As of October 1, 2025) ・Possibility of US Government Shutdown and Bitcoin as a Safe-Haven Asset The possibility of a US government shutdown is accelerating the perception of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, akin to gold. Historical government shutdowns have witnessed capital inflows into both Bitcoin and gold, suggesting that heightened uncertainty could potentially support Bitcoin's price. Stabilization in investor sentiment and risk aversion are expected to stimulate demand for Bitcoin. ・Majority of Stablecoin Transactions Revealed to be Bot-Driven Survey findings indicating that over 70% of stablecoin transactions in Q3 were bot-driven raise questions about market transparency and its impact on the real economy. Unusually high trading volumes suggest the possibility of algorithmic trading not based on genuine demand or potential market manipulation. This could potentially increase market volatility, necessitating careful monitoring. ・Digitalization and Mainstreaming of Alternative Assets The advancement of blockchain technology in digitizing alternative assets such as wine, art, and luxury watches, coupled with the progress in fractional ownership, is opening up investment opportunities previously limited to the affluent to mainstream investors. This trend could create new channels for capital inflow into the cryptocurrency market, potentially increasing demand for tokens linked to real-world assets (RWAs). ・Tornado Cash Co-founder Seeks Conviction Overturned The case of Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm seeking to overturn his conviction highlights the legal risks associated with crypto mixing services and the challenges faced by regulators. If his argument that prosecutors failed to prove "intent to aid malicious actors" is upheld, the impact on providers of similar services might be limited. However, the jury's lack of a unanimous verdict on related charges of money laundering and sanctions violations suggests potential for increased future scrutiny by regulatory authorities. ・Metaplanet Becomes 4th Largest Corporate Bitcoin Holder After $600M Purchase Japanese investment company Metaplanet's additional purchase of approximately $600 million worth of Bitcoin has positioned it as the fourth-largest corporate holder globally, indicating the continuation of strategic corporate investments in the cryptocurrency. This suggests persistent demand from institutional investors, serving as a potential factor supporting long-term price appreciation. Notably, proactive purchases by Japanese firms signal growing interest from the Asian market. ・Bitcoin "Uptober" Expectations and Market Signals Bitcoin's price closing September on an upward trend fuels expectations for a historically bullish trend in October, often dubbed "Uptober." Indicators like the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) RSI suggesting a "buy" signal, coupled with observed accumulation by long-term holders (HODLers), point towards potential further upside for Bitcoin. These factors could act as a catalyst for boosting short-term market sentiment. ・BNB Chain Official X Account Hacked, Spreading Phishing Scams The incident where BNB Chain's official X account was hacked and phishing links were distributed still highlights the significant security risks within the crypto ecosystem. Security breaches on major platforms can erode investor confidence and potentially exert temporary downward pressure on prices. While warnings from prominent figures help raise user awareness, implementing effective preventative measures against similar incidents remains a challenge. ・SEC Reportedly Considering Blockchain Technology for Securities Trading Reports indicate the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is considering plans to permit blockchain-based securities trading, marking a significant step towards the integration of traditional finance and the crypto market. This could enable 24/7 stock trading and more efficient settlement processes, potentially enhancing liquidity and efficiency across the broader financial markets. However, opinions are divided among experts regarding the direct benefits to the crypto market itself, making the specific regulatory details crucial moving forward. ・Chainlink and SWIFT Collaboration to Promote On-Chain Transactions News of the collaboration between Chainlink and SWIFT, enabling banks to trigger on-chain transactions using their existing infrastructure, strengthens the ties between traditional financial institutions (TradFi) and blockchain technology. This development could accelerate the adoption of blockchain by financial institutions, further encouraging institutional entry into the crypto market. Utilization as settlement infrastructure for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and tokenized assets is particularly anticipated. ・Coinbase Executive: Cryptocurrencies Needed for AI Agent Market Activity A Coinbase executive's statement that cryptocurrencies are necessary for AI agents to effectively operate in financial markets suggests a future convergence of AI and blockchain technology. As AI increasingly acts on behalf of humans in financial transactions, blockchain's characteristics—such as transparency, immediacy, and immutability—become essential. This holds the potential to create new use cases for cryptocurrencies, driven by the growth of the AI market. ### Overall Summary The cryptocurrency market yesterday (October 1, 2025) saw heightened interest in Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over a potential US government shutdown, while findings that the majority of stablecoin transactions are bot-driven highlighted challenges regarding market transparency. Furthermore, news concerning the digitalization of alternative assets, the Chainlink-SWIFT collaboration, and the SEC's consideration of blockchain-based trading suggests potential progress in integrating with traditional financial markets. Overall, the market continues to react sensitively to regulatory developments, macroeconomic conditions, and advancements in technological innovation, necessitating close monitoring of future trends.

A bot ratio exceeding 70% in stablecoin transactions suggests risks associated with market manipulation and a lack of clarity on genuine demand. The hacking of the BNB Chain's X account raises security concerns across the entire ecosystem and potentially erodes trust. The call for the acquittal of a Tornado Cash co-founder raises concerns about potential impacts on mixing services, contingent upon future regulatory actions. As for downside risks, a breach below the recent support level at $20 is a primary concern.

* **Short-term (24-48 hours):** Expectations surrounding 'Uptober' and concerns about a potential US government shutdown could potentially drive short-term gains. * **Medium-term (1 week):** Key developments influencing market consolidation over the next week include the SEC's review of blockchain-based transactions and progress on the Chainlink/SWIFT integration. * **Sentiment:** Further updates regarding bot trading issues and the trajectory of regulatory actions will also shape market sentiment.

Summarizing today's analysis, the market retains a neutral bias, characterized by a mix of short-term upside potential and prevailing concerns such as bot trading and security risks. However, substantial Bitcoin purchases by Metaplanet and its growing recognition as a safe-haven asset amidst concerns of a potential US government shutdown serve as strong fundamental drivers underpinning long-term institutional demand and price support. On the technical front, while an RSI of 61.9 suggests further upside potential, a MACD death cross and Bollinger Band convergence indicate the market is awaiting a decisive trend formation. As an investment strategy, we recommend buying on dips near the recent low of around $20. Our target prices are set at the recent high of $23, and further towards the key psychological level of $25. The stop-loss level is set at a clear break below $20; rigorous risk management should be prioritized. Key catalysts for this week include the SEC's ongoing review of blockchain transactions, the creation of real-world utility from the Chainlink-SWIFT integration, and developments regarding the potential US government shutdown. Should these events unfold positively, the market may break out of its current range and form a further uptrend. Notably, expectations surrounding innovative use cases, such as the tokenization of traditional assets and integration with AI agents, are poised to drive long-term growth in the cryptocurrency market. Vigilance is required against the risks of market manipulation through bot trading and security incidents, such as those seen on the BNB Chain. It is crucial to closely monitor these news flows and maintain rational judgment. Despite inherent uncertainties, the market is steadily progressing, driven by structural shifts and technological innovation. In this dynamic market environment, informed strategies and disciplined execution pave the path toward steady wealth accumulation. We advise investors to capitalize on these opportunities by building their portfolios with a cautious and consistent approach.