
Chainlink (LINK) Market Analysis: September 28, 2025
2025-09-27
Price
$20.91▼ 0.67%
Summary
Continued outflows from Ether ETFs are weighing on the ETH price. Meanwhile, the anticipated approval of Solana staking ETFs and Kraken's substantial funding round signal growing interest in the altcoin and exchange sectors. Divergent views on Bitcoin's price suggest a potential shift in market sentiment, impacting the broader market.
The overall market bias is currently assessed as neutral due to these conflicting factors.
Fundamentals
・Ether ETF Outflows Continue Amid Price Decline
Net outflows from US-based spot Ether ETFs have persisted for five consecutive weeks, totaling $795.8 million for the week. Ether's price also experienced a weekly decline of 10.25%, closing at $4,013. This suggests institutional caution towards Ether investments, exerting downward pressure on the ETH price in the short term. Continued outflows could potentially lead to further price corrections.
・Vitalik Buterin Opposes EU's "Chat Control" Legislation
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has warned that the EU's proposed "Chat Control" legislation infringes on digital privacy and creates a backdoor for surveillance. The bill mandates the scanning of private communications. Buterin stated, "We all have the right to privacy and security in our private communications." If enacted, this legislation could negatively impact private blockchain communications and related services within the EU, potentially acting as a deterrent to capital inflows for privacy-centric projects in the long run.
・Solana Staking ETF Approval Expected
ETF analysts anticipate that applications for Solana Staking ETFs could be approved in the US within the next two weeks. Several asset managers, including Franklin Templeton, Fidelity Investments, and CoinShares, have submitted applications. Approval could stimulate institutional inflows into the Solana ecosystem, potentially acting as a catalyst for SOL price appreciation. This highlights growing interest in ETF products for altcoins beyond Bitcoin and Ether.
・Bitcoin Price Divided: $60,000 vs. $140,000 Outlook
Bitcoin has pulled back 12.75% from its previous all-time high, creating a divide among traders. Some view this as a correction within a bull market, while others warn of the beginning of a bear cycle. Historical data suggests a potential downside scenario towards $60,000, whereas bulls are targeting levels above $140,000. The battle at this price level could represent a turning point for market sentiment. In the short term, the prevailing scenario will likely dictate the price action for Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market.
・Kraken Raises $500 Million at $15 Billion Valuation
Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken is reportedly raising $500 million at a $15 billion valuation. This move comes amid growing speculation about a potential Initial Public Offering (IPO) and aims to strengthen the company's financial position. The funding round indicates keen interest from major investors in cryptocurrency exchanges, and a successful IPO could potentially enhance the credibility of the broader crypto market.
・US Inflation Data Has Limited Impact on Bitcoin Price
US PCE inflation data failed to act as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin bulls, leading Bitcoin to test the $60,000 support level. BTC/USD faces the risk of breaking below $60,000, with a potential decline towards $50,000 also coming into play. Inflation trends influence the Fed's monetary policy, which in turn affects the sentiment of the broader crypto market. Therefore, continued monitoring of future inflation data and the Fed's response is essential.
・Tether Reportedly Exploring Massive Funding Round
Stablecoin issuer Tether is reportedly considering raising up to $20 billion by selling approximately 3% of its shares. Major investment firms, including SoftBank Group and ARK Investment Management, are said to be considering investments. This potential move by Tether highlights its recognition as a profitable entity among investors and, if successful, could further bolster the credibility and growth of the overall stablecoin market.
・Grayscale Suggests Potential Q3 Altcoin Season
Grayscale suggests that Q3 2025 might represent an "altcoin season" different from past cycles, potentially driven by the relative underperformance of Bitcoin and supported by increased inflows from centralized exchanges (CEXs). A scenario where altcoins lead the market, rather than Bitcoin, could encourage greater capital inflow into altcoins, signaling increased investment opportunities, particularly in promising projects.
・Overall Summary
While continued outflows from Ether ETFs may act as a headwind for ETH price in the short term, the potential approval of Solana Staking ETFs and Kraken's significant funding round signal growing institutional interest in altcoins and the exchange sector, respectively. Vitalik Buterin's criticism of the EU bill reinforces the importance of privacy protection, and Tether's potential large funding round underscores the perceived maturity of the stablecoin market. Overall, the market is navigating between short-term price corrections and long-term growth drivers like ETF approvals and funding rounds. Macroeconomic trends and regulatory developments will be crucial factors moving forward.
Chart Analysis
Technical Analysis
The RSI is at 44.3, signaling neutral territory without overbought or oversold indications. The lack of a MACD crossover and prices trading within the Bollinger Bands suggest a current ranging market lacking a clear trend. A distinct position relative to moving averages is also unclear, resulting in uncertain short-term directionality.
Key Price Levels
Key support resides at the recent low of $20. A break below this level heightens the risk of further downside pressure.
Key resistance is found at the recent high of $24. A decisive breakout above this point could significantly strengthen upward momentum. A reasonable strategy would be to set profit targets near $24 and stop-loss orders below the $20 level.
Risk Analysis
Continued outflows from Ether ETFs risk pressuring ETH's price and potentially causing a deterioration of sentiment across the broader altcoin market. A scenario where Bitcoin drops below $60,000 cannot be ruled out, potentially diminishing its role as the primary driver for the overall market. The EU's 'Chat Control' legislation is a long-term risk factor that raises concerns regarding privacy protection. The key support level is around $20.
Outlook
In the short term (24-48 hours), LINK's technical indicators are neutral, suggesting that a major directional shift is unlikely.
For the medium term (one week), the potential approval of a Solana staking ETF and Grayscale's observation of an impending altcoin season could positively influence market sentiment, potentially driving inflows into altcoins like LINK. Close monitoring of Bitcoin's trend is also necessary.
Conclusion
While technically neutral, LINK is currently supported by positive developments in the altcoin and exchange sectors, notably the potential Solana ETF approval and Kraken securing funding.
Outflows from Ether ETFs and uncertainty surrounding BTC's price action are exerting near-term downward pressure. However, these factors also signal the potential emergence of an altcoin season, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish overall stance is appropriate. Strategically, a long entry targeting a breakout above the $24 resistance level is recommended, with price targets set between $25-$26 and a stop-loss below $20. Should a broader market downturn occur, it is prudent to avoid forcing trades and wait for confirmation of a bounce at the $20 support level.
Ether ETF flows, BTC price dynamics, and Solana ETF news will be key market drivers in the coming days, emphasizing the importance of strict risk management. Close monitoring of these catalysts, coupled with flexible strategy adjustments, will position traders to capitalize on emerging market opportunities.
*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Cryptocurrency investments carry high price volatility risks. Please make investment decisions at your own discretion and responsibility.