Continued inflows from institutional investors into Bitcoin ETFs, alongside purchases by MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, are providing a positive fundamental base for the market. However, concerns over token unlocks on Hyperliquid and potential price corrections for Bitcoin suggest short-term volatility. Given the technically oversold conditions and a neutral trend, the market bias for LINK is currently assessed as Neutral.

・Continuous Inflows into US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Last week saw inflows totaling $3.9 billion into US spot Bitcoin ETFs for the fourth consecutive week, indicating sustained institutional interest in Bitcoin. This steady fund flow provides support for Bitcoin's price and enhances the potential for further appreciation. Notably, the expansion of the ETF market offers greater accessibility for institutional investors, thereby increasing overall market liquidity and maturity. ・UAE Signs Agreement for Automatic Exchange of Crypto Tax Data The UAE's signing of an agreement for the automatic exchange of information based on the OECD's Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) signifies progress in global regulatory harmonization for virtual assets. This move enhances transparency in crypto transactions and bolsters regulatory compliance, fostering an environment conducive to greater institutional participation. Consequently, it is expected to bolster long-term market credibility and attract further institutional investment. ・Concerns Over Large Hyperliquid (HYPE) Token Unlock and Arthur Hayes' Actions The scheduled unlock of Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens, valued at $11.9 billion over 24 months, poses a potential risk of short-term selling pressure. Specifically, the news that Arthur Hayes, an influential figure from Bitcoin's early days, sold HYPE tokens to purchase a Ferrari, has re-emphasized the impact certain influencer actions can have on market prices. This substantial unlock event could potentially influence not only the HYPE token but also the overall market sentiment. ・Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy Buys More Bitcoin MicroStrategy's additional purchase of 850 BTC (valued at approximately $99.7 million), reportedly amidst signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate adjustments, highlights the enduring conviction in Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and long-term store of value. The company acquired these Bitcoin holdings at an elevated price point (around $117,344 per BTC), signaling a strongly bullish outlook on Bitcoin's potential for further price appreciation. ・Japan's Metaplanet Emerges as 5th Largest Bitcoin Holder After $633 Million Purchase Japan-based Metaplanet's acquisition of $633 million worth of Bitcoin, elevating it to the 5th position in corporate Bitcoin holdings globally, clearly demonstrates the integration of Bitcoin as a strategic asset by traditional companies. This move suggests a potential trend where other corporations may follow suit, further accelerating institutional adoption of Bitcoin. ・Bitcoin Shows Signs of Cycle Exhaustion, Price Dips to $112,000 Level Bitcoin's price decline to the $112,000 level, accompanied by the liquidation of approximately $1.6 billion in long positions, suggests the market may have been overheated and is now entering a short-term correction phase. Analysts are noting signs of 'cycle exhaustion,' hinting at potential further declines. This scenario poses risks, especially for leveraged traders, but may present accumulation opportunities for long-term investors. ・South Korea Flags Record Number of Suspicious Crypto Transactions in 2025 Reports indicate South Korean authorities flagged a record number of suspicious virtual asset transactions during 2025. This underscores the heightened regulatory scrutiny aimed at combating money laundering and illicit activities within the sector. While this trend is likely to foster stronger compliance measures market-wide and enhance long-term market integrity, it could potentially affect specific trading activities in the near term. ・OKX Postpones Perpetual DEX Launch Amid Regulatory Concerns OKX's decision to postpone the launch of its decentralized perpetual exchange platform due to regulatory concerns highlights the prevailing uncertainty within the DeFi space. While platforms like Hyperliquid are gaining traction, OKX's cautious approach, closely monitoring regulatory developments, signifies a critical factor for the future rollout of DeFi services. ・'Uptober' Rally Questioned as Crypto Market Turns Red The fading optimism surrounding a potential 'Uptober' rally, amid signs of market cooling, suggests the cryptocurrency market remains highly sensitive to external factors, especially macroeconomic shifts. Bitcoin's price decline towards the $112,000 level and the generally weak market performance cast doubt on the rally's continuation, indicating a possible pause in the bullish trend. ・Overall Summary Last week, the cryptocurrency market displayed a mixed picture, characterized by expanding institutional adoption, evidenced by continuous inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs and significant purchases by MicroStrategy and Metaplanet. However, short-term price volatility factors were also present, including concerns over Hyperliquid's token unlock and Bitcoin's price correction. The UAE's tax agreement signaled progress in international regulatory harmonization, while South Korea's suspicious transaction report underscored the importance of enhanced compliance. Overall, the market is navigating between expectations of mid-to-long-term growth and short-term volatility, with ongoing macroeconomic trends and regulatory developments remaining key focus areas.

Macroeconomic uncertainty and potential further downside for Bitcoin could also impact LINK. Risk factors include large token unlocks, such as from Hyperliquid, and the pending launch of DeFi platforms like OKX, which could deteriorate market sentiment. The key support level is the recent low of $21.

Over the next 24-48 hours, a slight recovery from oversold conditions is possible, but highly dependent on Bitcoin's movements. On a weekly timeframe, holding the support at $21 and breaking through $25 could initiate a bullish trend reversal. Potential catalysts include inflows into ETFs and positive corporate announcements.

Our analysis of the LINK market today recommends a neutral to slightly bullish stance. While expanding institutional adoption provides strong support, short-term market-wide volatility and macroeconomic uncertainties remain key risks. The current oversold condition on the RSI suggests potential for a short-term bounce, with buying pressure evident near the $21 level. **Action Plan:** Entry Recommendation: We suggest dip-buying within the $21-$22 range. Specifically, approaching the $21 level and confirming signs of a reversal could present an attractive opportunity from a long-term holding perspective. Set initial profit targets at $25, with a secondary target at $27 if upward momentum persists. Strictly enforce stop-losses on a clear break below $21, or on a break below the $20 level. **Weekly Strategy:** This week's strategy focuses on the interplay between the support at $21 and resistance at $25. A decisive break above $25 would likely signal a positive shift in market sentiment. From a risk management perspective, avoid over-leveraging and ensure proper position sizing. **Message to Readers:** Markets remain volatile, but sound analysis and disciplined execution are key to success. Current market conditions offer opportunities for strategic positioning, adopting a cautious approach while keeping long-term growth potential in mind. Stay optimistic and calmly monitor market dynamics.