Anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and forecasts of Bitcoin achieving new all-time highs are driving strong bullish sentiment in the market. While heightened EU regulatory scrutiny warrants caution, Grayscale's preparations for Ethereum staking and the expansion of tokenized assets signal growing institutional adoption. An increase in Bitcoin's illiquid supply underpins the market's long-term maturation and a robust holder base. Overall, the market maintains a neutral-to-slightly-bullish bias.

### Cryptocurrency Market Analysis (September 19, 2025) ・EU Adds Cryptocurrency Platforms to Russian Sanctions Package The European Union's (EU) decision to directly target cryptocurrency platforms for the first time in its sanctions package against Russia is set to accelerate the trend of increased regulation. Prohibitions on cryptocurrency transactions with Russian residents and restrictions on dealings with Russian-related payment systems represent a step towards standardizing international crypto regulations. This further heightens the importance of compliance and could impact the business operations of major platforms. While clearer regulations might eventually encourage institutional investor participation, heightened vigilance regarding regulatory risks is expected in the near term. Although the direct impact on LINK's price is limited, it warrants attention as part of the global regulatory landscape. ・France Hints at Restrictions on EU Crypto Licenses France's suggestion that it might restrict business operations for companies holding cryptocurrency licenses obtained within the EU raises concerns about the uniformity of regulation across the bloc. This challenges the promise of market integration under the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation and signals emerging differences in national regulatory approaches. For crypto firms operating within the EU, this complicates licensing strategies and could potentially curb the activities of certain players. Even for versatile tokens like LINK, the impact on the overall crypto ecosystem as infrastructure cannot be overlooked. ・Federal Reserve Rate Cut Boosts Bitcoin Price The Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to cut interest rates injects liquidity into the market and stimulates investment appetite for risk assets, serving as a positive catalyst for the cryptocurrency market overall, including Bitcoin. This is likely to improve investor sentiment and drive capital inflows into crypto. Bitcoin, in particular, is strengthening its position as "digital gold," and its value is being re-evaluated amidst growing macroeconomic uncertainty. This trend is also expected to provide a tailwind for LINK, pushing its price higher in correlation with Bitcoin's upward momentum. ・Bhutan Government Moves $107 Million Worth of Bitcoin The Bhutanese government's movement of a substantial amount of Bitcoin raises concerns among market participants about potential selling pressure. Moving such a large sum, especially during a period of market optimism driven by the Fed's rate cut, could act as a short-term volatility factor. However, the transfer of government-held assets does not necessarily imply a sale; it could be related to changes in management or other objectives. While this news alone is unlikely to significantly impact LINK's price, it may cause temporary fluctuations in market sentiment. ・Kraken Partners with Trust Wallet to Expand Tokenized Stock Offerings Major cryptocurrency exchange Kraken's partnership with Trust Wallet to broaden its offerings of tokenized stocks signals growing institutional interest in the tokenization of traditional assets. This serves as evidence of blockchain technology's increasing importance as financial market infrastructure and contributes to improving liquidity for tokenized assets. Oracle services like LINK play a crucial role in providing price information for such tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), suggesting this move could indirectly contribute to expanding LINK's use cases. ・Bitcoin's Non-Liquid Supply Hits Record High of 14.3 Million BTC; Large Investors Accumulate The record high in Bitcoin's non-liquid supply (coins held for extended periods with limited transaction history) indicates a trend towards long-term holding among market participants, potentially creating future supply shortages and upward price pressure. The accumulation of the majority of the supply by large investors ("whales") is likely to contribute to healthy market growth and price stabilization. This trend reflects growing confidence in Bitcoin and could spill over into increased investment interest in other cryptocurrencies, particularly foundational tokens like LINK. ・Ethereum's Prague Upgrade Postponed to December; Blob Capacity to Double The postponement of Ethereum's Prague (formerly Kansan, nicknamed Fusaka in the original text) upgrade to December and the doubling of its blob capacity are significant steps towards enhancing the Ethereum network's scalability and efficiency. The increased blob capacity will improve the performance of the data availability layer, contributing to reduced transaction costs and faster processing speeds for Layer 2 solutions. This is expected to invigorate the overall Ethereum ecosystem and potentially increase demand for projects built on Ethereum, including Ethereum-based services like LINK. ・Canada Criticizes Large Crypto Seizure from TradeOgre The large-scale seizure of cryptocurrency from the exchange TradeOgre by Canadian police is sparking debate among market participants as an example of regulatory enforcement action. While highlighting the risks associated with using exchanges lacking Know Your Customer (KYC) checks, it also raises concerns about the potential temporary freezing of assets belonging to uninvolved users. Such actions by regulatory authorities encourage enhanced compliance across the crypto market but may also foster distrust among some users. Although the direct impact on LINK's usage is minimal, it warrants attention regarding exchange-specific regulatory risks. ・Vietnam Closes 86 Million Accounts Failing Facial Recognition The Vietnamese government's closure of bank accounts that failed facial recognition checks is part of a broader effort to bolster anti-money laundering (AML) and illicit use prevention measures. This move enhances the importance of digital ID and biometric authentication technologies while strengthening government control within centralized financial systems. Although some Bitcoin proponents raise concerns about censorship and privacy infringement, it also represents an effort to increase transparency in the financial system. Decentralized oracles like LINK offer a different approach compared to these centralized systems, potentially leading to a renewed recognition of their value proposition. ・Grayscale Prepares Ethereum Staking Following SEC Stance Shift Asset manager Grayscale's preparations to stake its Ethereum holdings suggest a potential shift in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) stance on cryptocurrency regulation, particularly regarding Ethereum staking. If realized, this would mark the first instance of staking Ethereum by a US ETF sponsor, potentially deepening institutional involvement with Ethereum. Staking rewards for ETH holders offer an additional revenue stream, which could drive demand for ETH. As LINK is closely tied to the Ethereum ecosystem, Ethereum's growth serves as a positive factor for LINK as well. ・Analysts Predict 70% Chance of Bitcoin Hitting New ATH Within Two Weeks The prediction that Bitcoin has a 70% probability of reaching a new all-time high (ATH) within the next two weeks supports the bullish market sentiment. Inflows into spot ETFs and strong premiums in the futures market bolster this outlook. Bitcoin's price appreciation is highly likely to positively influence the broader altcoin market. LINK is also expected to benefit from Bitcoin's upward trend, potentially seeing its price rise accordingly. Specifically, as price discovery for Bitcoin progresses, investment in foundational technologies like LINK may also be stimulated. ・Bitcoin Repeats May Breakout Pattern, Suggesting Potential $118,000 Target Bitcoin repeating its breakout pattern observed in May, with projections suggesting a rise to $118,000, indicates sustained market momentum. Movements above the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) imply a replication of past upward trends, boosting investor confidence. The subsequent stock market rally following the Fed's rate cut further strengthens the optimistic outlook for risk assets in general. This bullish market environment is expected to extend to LINK, presenting opportunities for price appreciation. ### Overall Summary While global regulatory developments, including intensified EU sanctions against Russia and France's regulatory stance, are increasing uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market, factors such as the Fed's rate cut, Ethereum's upgrades, and heightened interest in Bitcoin ETFs are having a positive impact on the market as a whole. Notably, Bitcoin's price projections and Grayscale's preparations for Ethereum staking signal increased institutional engagement and market maturation, which should also spur investment in foundational technologies like LINK. Moving forward, regulatory clarity and advancements in technological innovation will be key determinants of the market's sustainable growth.

Regulatory risks persist, particularly concerning potential tightening of regulations in the EU and indications of licensing restrictions in France. On the technical side, a bearish crossover on the MACD may signal short-term downward pressure, requiring caution as the price approaches the recent low of $23. Additionally, movements of Bitcoin by the Bhutanese government and confiscation incidents involving TradeOgre could also have a temporary impact on market sentiment.

In the short term (24-48 hours), expect consolidation within the current range or a temporary pullback, driven by the MACD bearish cross and the recent price decline. However, fundamental factors such as potential Fed rate cuts and a bullish outlook for Bitcoin are likely to limit the downside. Maintaining the $23 support level is key. For the medium term (1 week), if Bitcoin's momentum continues, LINK could follow suit and aim to break above $26. Continued attention should be paid to regulatory news.

Overall, the LINK market maintains a bullish outlook, supported by potential Fed rate cuts, strong anticipation of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, and the ongoing evolution of the Ethereum ecosystem. Despite concerns such as heightened regulatory scrutiny in the EU and indications of licensing restrictions in France, Grayscale's preparations for Ethereum staking and the expansion of tokenized assets are indicative of deepening institutional involvement and are poised to foster market maturation. On the technical front, while the MACD's bearish cross suggests a potential short-term correction, the RSI remains in neutral territory, and volatility is standard. The immediate support lies at the recent low of $23, and its maintenance is crucial in the near term. As for investment strategy, buying the dip in the $23-$22 range is advisable. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above the $26 resistance could offer an opportunity to enter long positions and capture potential upside momentum. Profit targets are set between $28 and $30, with prudent risk management involving a stop-loss around $22 if the price breaks decisively below $23. Key levels to watch this week are the $23 support and the $26 resistance. Bitcoin's price movements and potential regulatory updates from the U.S. SEC remain key factors influencing overall market sentiment. From a risk management perspective, optimizing position sizing and closely monitoring regulatory developments are essential. The underlying technology of LINK as a decentralized oracle network, coupled with the broader potential of blockchain as financial infrastructure, presents significant long-term promise for investors. Approach market volatility strategically to pursue steady growth.