While the exploration of regulations for crypto derivatives by US authorities fosters market maturity, Bitcoin's pullback, spurred by outflows from Ethereum ETFs and weaker-than-expected US employment data, indicates short-term uncertainty in market sentiment. Increased investments by ARK Invest into related companies and the establishment of cryptocurrency divisions by major Brazilian asset managers signal growing institutional interest and adoption. LINK currently exhibits neutral technical indicators, reflecting an overall market environment where positive fundamental drivers intersect with negative macroeconomic and sentiment headwinds.

・US Regulators Consider 24/7 Capital Markets and Crypto Derivatives Regulation The consideration by the SEC and CFTC regarding the transition to a 24/7 trading environment and the clarification of regulations for crypto derivatives, including perpetual futures contracts, marks a significant step towards market maturity and increased institutional participation. This is expected to enhance trading efficiency and transparency, potentially enabling a broader range of financial products within the cryptocurrency market. In the long term, regulatory clarity could foster greater investor protection and market confidence, thereby encouraging further capital inflows into the crypto space. ・Ethereum ETFs See Four Consecutive Days of Outflows The recording of net outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs in the US for four consecutive trading days during the shortened week ending on Labor Day suggests a cooling of short-term investor sentiment. This contrasts sharply with the substantial inflows into Ethereum ETFs observed in August, indicating that market participants are increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic trends and shifts in the regulatory landscape. While these outflows may exert short-term downward pressure on Ethereum's price, they can also be viewed as part of the ETF market's maturation process over the long term. ・Bitcoin Price Ignores Weak US Jobs Data, Erasing Gains Above $113.4K Friday's weaker-than-expected US employment report triggered a brief pullback in Bitcoin's price, negating its gains that had pushed it above $113,000. This underscores the continued influence of macroeconomic indicators on crypto market sentiment. Specifically, the disappointing jobs figures simultaneously boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts while raising concerns about an economic slowdown, unsettling investor sentiment towards risk assets in general. Sustained confirmation of a market bottom may remain challenging unless Bitcoin can secure a weekly close above $112,500. ・ARK Invest Boosts Crypto Exposure with Purchases of BitMine and Bullish Shares The recent purchases of shares in BitMine Immersion Technologies and the cryptocurrency exchange Bullish, totaling approximately $16 million and $7.5 million respectively, by ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, reflect a growing interest and investment appetite from institutional players in crypto-related companies. This move is underpinned by a long-term optimism regarding the future prospects of the cryptocurrency market and could serve as a catalyst for its growth and adoption. Investments in infrastructure firms like BitMine and exchanges like Bullish are considered contributions to the overall development of the crypto ecosystem. ・Clause Added to Senate Crypto Bill Maintaining Tokenized Equities as Securities The addition of a clause to the US Senate's market structure bill, clarifying that tokenized equities and other securities remain classified as securities even when tokenized on a blockchain, is significant in terms of regulatory clarity. This provides digital asset firms with more definitive guidance regarding the regulatory status of tokenized securities. It aims to prevent potential confusion between securities and commodities laws, thereby promoting the orderly development of the tokenization market. ・Tether in Talks for Investment in Gold Supply Chain Reports indicating that stablecoin issuer Tether is in discussions regarding capital deployment across the gold supply chain suggest a strategic move towards portfolio diversification and deeper engagement with traditional asset classes. Gold, often compared to Bitcoin as "digital gold," could see its linkage with traditional finance strengthened by Tether's potential involvement. This strategy may also serve to expand Tether's asset base and bolster the credibility of its USDt stablecoin. ・Brazil's Largest Asset Manager Itaú Asset Establishes Dedicated Crypto Division The establishment of a dedicated cryptocurrency division by Itaú Asset Management, Brazil's largest private asset manager, appointing a former Hashdex executive to lead it, symbolizes the rapid maturation of the crypto market and expanding institutional engagement in Latin America. Given the scale of assets managed by Itaú Asset, this initiative could significantly boost crypto investments within the region, indicating a growing recognition of digital assets as a key asset class in broader portfolio management, moving beyond purely speculative interest. ・Trump-Associated WLFI Token Plummets 40%, Causing Multi-Million Dollar Losses for Crypto Whales The news that the Trump-associated World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token dropped over 40% post-launch, resulting in multi-million dollar losses for crypto "whales" (large holders), highlights the substantial risks and high volatility associated with new cryptocurrency projects, particularly those linked to celebrities or political figures. This serves as a reminder for investors to meticulously evaluate project fundamentals and tokenomics, potentially leading to a more cautious approach regarding capital inflows into associated ventures. Overall Summary The considerations by US regulators regarding 24/7 capital markets and crypto derivatives, alongside ARK Invest's increased investment in crypto-related companies, signal market maturation and growing institutional engagement, likely positively impacting the long-term growth of the cryptocurrency market. However, the price pullback in Bitcoin following weak US employment data and the outflows from Ethereum ETFs demonstrate that macroeconomic factors and short-term investor sentiment continue to influence the market. While regulatory clarity and institutional participation may bring stability, short-term volatility driven by economic indicators and market sentiment is expected to persist.

Deteriorating macroeconomic indicators, such as weak employment data, could exert downward pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. While the consideration of new regulations by US authorities may foster long-term market stabilization, it also entails risks of short-term uncertainty and increased compliance costs. A key support level is currently around $22; a breach below this level risks a decline to $20, or potentially $18. Outflows from ETH ETFs could also contribute to a worsening of overall market sentiment.

Over the next 24-48 hours, the market is expected to react to US economic data releases and statements from Federal Reserve officials, likely resulting in minor price movements or range-bound trading. Crucially, over the medium term (the next week), holding the key support level at $22 or breaking the resistance at $24 will be pivotal. Positive regulatory news or inflows from institutional investors could serve as catalysts. Notable catalysts to monitor include upcoming macroeconomic data, especially inflation metrics, and indications regarding the Fed's monetary policy.

The LINK market currently exhibits a confluence of neutral technical indicators and long-term positive catalysts, such as regulatory advancements and increasing institutional adoption, weighed against negative factors including macroeconomic uncertainty and short-term outflows. Price action is consolidating within a range around the $22 mark, lacking a discernible trend. Our overall assessment is **Neutral**, yet the underlying fundamentals driving the market's healthy growth are positive. We advise considering position building from a long-term perspective, rather than being swayed by short-term price volatility. **Practical Strategy**: Confirm support holding at the $22 level. Consider initiating short-term long positions upon a decisive break above $24, placing stop-losses near $23. A breach below $22 warrants caution regarding downside risk towards $20. Trading this week is anticipated to be range-bound between $22 and $24, with breakouts serving as key indicators for the next trend. **Risk Management**: Maintain close observation of macroeconomic indicators (inflation, FOMC), regulatory news, and trends in major cryptocurrencies, as these elements significantly impact market sentiment. The cryptocurrency market is maturing alongside its inherent volatility. Regulatory clarity and institutional entry represent potential drivers for future asset value appreciation. Let us leverage this growth opportunity through careful analysis and robust risk management.