The increased utilization of stablecoins by AI agents, a significant 72% surge in DeFi lending volumes, and the resumption of custody services by US Bancorp are positive indicators, signaling market growth and deepening institutional participation. While low yields on certain DeFi products pose a challenge, enhanced regulatory scrutiny and the return of major banks are bolstering credibility. Overall, the market is demonstrating steady progress, maintaining a neutral to slightly bullish bias.

・AIエージェントによるステーブルコイン利用の増加 Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, predicts that AI agents will become major adopters of stablecoins. This suggests a future where AI autonomously executes routine transactions, potentially leading to an expansion of stablecoin use cases and a subsequent increase in demand. The proliferation of AI could introduce a new growth driver for the stablecoin market, marking a trend to watch. ・DeFiレンディングプロトコルの72%急増と機関投資家の参入 According to Binance Research, DeFi lending protocols experienced a 72% surge in 2025, driven by the increased adoption of stablecoins and tokenized assets by institutional investors. This indicates the maturation of the DeFi market and accelerating capital inflows from traditional finance (TradFi). Institutional participation is expected to enhance market liquidity and credibility, thereby boosting the expansion of the entire DeFi ecosystem. ・US Bancorpの仮想通貨カストディサービス再開 U.S. Bancorp has resumed its digital asset custody services for institutional investors. This move follows regulatory changes enacted under the Trump administration, which relaxed requirements for banks to hold capital reserves against crypto-related activities on their balance sheets. The return of major banks to the cryptocurrency market could bolster institutional investor confidence and encourage further capital inflows. ・ビットコインは「レッドセプテンバー」の安値を3年連続で回避する可能性 Bitcoin shows signs of potentially avoiding the typical "Red September" lows for the third consecutive year. September is known as the month with the lowest average monthly returns for Bitcoin over the past 12 years, with negative performance recorded in each of the last three years. However, the circumstances in 2023 presented an improvement, and this year could mark the third consecutive year breaking this trend. This suggests that factors such as improved market sentiment and broader macroeconomic conditions may be influencing the market, potentially supporting an uptrend in Bitcoin's price. ・CZ所有のTrust Walletがトークン化された株式とETFをローンチ Trust Wallet, owned by CZ, has announced the integration of tokenized stocks and ETFs. This development signifies progress in the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWAs) and represents a move towards crypto wallets offering access to traditional financial instruments, accelerating the convergence between cryptocurrency and traditional finance. The tokenization of RWAs has the potential to broaden DeFi's scope and create new investment opportunities, contributing to market diversification. ・仮想通貨採用で米国が2位に浮上、APAC地域が最も成長 According to a report by Chainalysis, the United States has risen to second place in cryptocurrency adoption, while the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region has shown the most growth. Factors contributing to this trend are believed to include the development of the U.S. regulatory environment and heightened investor interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs. The expanding global adoption of cryptocurrencies signals overall market growth and diversification, potentially contributing to future price appreciation. ・OKX、オランダで無免許営業により260万ドルの罰金 OKX has been fined $2.6 million in the Netherlands for operating without the necessary license. This incident, occurring before the implementation of the European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, highlights increased regulatory scrutiny. It underscores the critical importance of regulatory compliance for cryptocurrency exchanges, making adaptation to national regulatory trends essential for future operations. ・テザーゴールド、Paxosゴールドの利回りが1%未満、期待外れ Yields for DeFi gold products like Tether Gold (XAUT) and Paxos Gold (PAXG) have remained below 1%, proving disappointing compared to the 3-5% yields available in traditional finance. This observation suggests that blockchain innovation may not necessarily translate into improved investment returns. The discrepancy between DeFi expectations and actual yields could encourage investors to maintain a cautious approach. ・イーサリアムのステーキング待ち行列が2年ぶりの高水準、機関投資家が積み増し Ethereum's staking queue has reached its highest level since 2023, indicating that institutional investors are increasing their holdings of ETH to capture rewards. This trend reflects heightened interest in staking rewards following Ethereum's transition to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). The increase in ETH holdings by institutional investors suggests growing confidence in the Ethereum network and positive long-term expectations, potentially contributing to price stabilization and appreciation for ETH. 【総合まとめ】 The increase in stablecoin usage by AI agents and the surge in DeFi lending indicate expanding use cases and deepening institutional participation, driving market growth and maturation. However, challenges remain within individual projects, such as certain DeFi products delivering underwhelming yields. Strengthened regulatory oversight by US authorities on crypto trading, coupled with the resumption of services by major financial institutions, is expected to enhance market credibility and foster broader investor participation. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is poised for further growth and evolution, driven by technological innovation, regulatory advancements, and the increasing involvement of diverse players.

Downside risks include increased regulatory scrutiny, as evidenced by the fine imposed on OKX. Furthermore, low yields from products like Tether Gold could dampen excessive expectations for DeFi. The key support level is the recent low of $22. A break below this level may open the door for a further decline to $20. Abrupt shifts in market sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainties are also factors to watch.

In the short term (24-48 hours), consolidation within the $22-$26 range is expected to persist. Significant price movement is unlikely without a strong catalyst. Over the next week (medium-term outlook), breaking the $26 resistance level is crucial. A successful breach above this threshold could pave the way for a potential move towards $30. Developments related to AI and RWA (Real World Assets), as well as actions by major financial institutions, could serve as catalysts in the near term.

In conclusion, our analysis indicates the market is currently supported by strong fundamentals, including increased AI-driven stablecoin utilization, a surge in DeFi lending, and the resumption of cryptocurrency services by major banks. This suggests deepening institutional adoption and points towards overall market growth. Technically, the market is consolidating in a range around the current price of $24, lacking a clear trend. However, the $22 level appears to be acting as relatively solid support. With the RSI situated in neutral territory and no MACD crossover observed, the short-term directional outlook remains unclear, though no overtly bearish signals are present. Given these factors, we assess the market bias as neutral to slightly bullish. Our recommended investment strategy involves buying on dips within the $22-$23 support zone, or entering on a clear break above the $26 resistance level. We set short-term take-profit targets between $26-$28, with mid-to-long-term targets aiming for $30 and beyond. From a risk management perspective, it is crucial to implement stop-losses if the price breaks below $22, maintain portfolio diversification, and manage position sizes effectively. Key levels to watch this week are the $26 resistance for a potential breakout and the $22 support level for its resilience; close monitoring of market movements is advised. Technological innovation and sustained institutional interest signal significant long-term growth potential for the cryptocurrency market, making a prudent and well-structured strategy essential for success while maintaining an optimistic outlook for the future.