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Cardano (ADA) Market Analysis: October 1, 2025

2025-09-30

Price

$0.8114 0.23%

Summary

The market today is marked by the advancing convergence of traditional finance (TradFi) and digital assets, highlighted by Visa and Deutsche Börse utilizing stablecoins, and Animoca Brands' tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA). The SEC's determination classifying DePIN tokens as outside its jurisdiction aids regulatory clarity. While these fundamentals are positive, ADA's technicals are neutral. The overall market bias is neutral to mildly bullish.

Fundamentals

・Visa Announces Stablecoin Pilot for Cross-Border Payments Utilizing USDC and EURC Visa's announcement of a pilot program for cross-border payments using stablecoins marks a significant sign of increasing digital asset acceptance within traditional finance (TradFi). This move could demonstrate the utility of stablecoins, particularly in international remittances, paving the way for broader adoption in the future. The utilization of established major stablecoins like EURC and USDC enhances their liquidity and reliability, lowering the barrier for institutional investors considering these assets for payment settlement. This may, in turn, foster the expansion of the overall stablecoin market and related investments in blockchain technology. ・Animoca Brands to Tokenize Shares on Solana Animoca Brands, known for its investments in the Web3 space, is set to tokenize its shares on the Solana blockchain via Republic, indicating a new phase in the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA). This initiative could open up investment opportunities in the shares of private companies like Animoca Brands, previously accessible only to a limited group, to a broader investor base. Solana's blockchain, chosen for its scalability and low transaction fees, promises to streamline the trading of tokenized assets. This could accelerate the growth of the RWA market and further advance the convergence of digital assets and traditional financial instruments. ・Opinion: Bitcoin is Becoming "Domestication" The concept of Bitcoin's "domestication" points to its current trend of moving away from its original ethos of decentralization and being co-opted by established financial systems, such as Wall Street and regulatory bodies. While this reflects Bitcoin's increasing adoption and growing institutional involvement, concerns exist regarding its deviation from its foundational philosophy. This "domestication" might contribute to Bitcoin's price stabilization but also carries the potential to dilute its speculative aspects and decentralization benefits. The entry of institutional investors and evolving regulations will be crucial factors influencing Bitcoin's long-term value. ・Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy Acquires Over 7,000 Additional BTC The fact that Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy has purchased over 7,000 more BTC underscores the continued strong conviction among institutional investors regarding Bitcoin. Specifically, their proactive accumulation strategy, even during market downturns, validates their view of Bitcoin as a long-term store of value. Such large-scale acquisitions can foster positive market sentiment and potentially act as a catalyst for attracting other institutional players. Increasing Bitcoin holdings serve to emphasize its scarcity, potentially leading to sustained upward price pressure over the long term. ・XRP Whale Accumulation Could Trigger "Aggressive" Price Moves The accumulation of XRP by "whales" (large holders) suggests growing confidence in XRP among market participants, indicating expectations for a price increase. A breakout above the $3.05 resistance level could set $4.20 as the next bullish target. Whale activity has the potential to cause sharp price surges or drops, thereby increasing market volatility. XRP's price trajectory remains heavily influenced by the ongoing developments in its lawsuit with the SEC and the adoption rate of Ripple's solutions like xRapid, making close monitoring of these factors essential. ・Circle Partners with Deutsche Börse to Promote Stablecoins in Europe Circle, the issuer of USDC, has partnered with Deutsche Börse, the German stock exchange, aiming to promote stablecoin adoption in Europe. This move highlights the necessity of regulatory alignment and integration with traditional financial infrastructure for building stablecoin credibility and expanding their utility. The focus on both Euro-pegged EURC and dollar-pegged USDC underscores the importance of regionally pegged stablecoins. This collaboration is expected to accelerate the development of digital asset payment infrastructure in Europe, potentially facilitating cross-border corporate transactions and institutional use of stablecoins. ・IoTeX Launches Decentralized AI Platform "AI Foundry" IoTeX's launch of its decentralized AI platform, "AI Foundry," signifies the advancing application of blockchain technology within the artificial intelligence sector. Collaborations with major companies like Vodafone suggest that this technology is moving beyond experimental stages towards real-world application. Decentralizing AI computational power and data processing holds the potential to enhance privacy protection and censorship resistance. Its connection to DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) suggests a emerging paradigm where decentralized infrastructure supports AI development. ・SEC Rules DePIN Tokens Outside Its Jurisdiction The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) determining that DePIN tokens fall outside its jurisdictional scope provides a significant tailwind for projects in the DePIN sector. This decision alleviates regulatory uncertainty, potentially encouraging more investment into the DePIN ecosystem. DePIN aims to build and operate physical infrastructure (such as storage, computing power, and network bandwidth) in a decentralized manner, where incentive design and tokenomics are crucial for growth. The SEC's ruling could accelerate the development of DePIN projects and establish new models for infrastructure construction. ・Web3 Investment Firm Animoca Brands to Tokenize Shares on Solana The news that Animoca Brands, known for its investments in the Web3 sector, will tokenize its shares on the Solana blockchain through Republic indicates that the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA) is expanding to include private companies. This initiative enhances investment opportunities in traditionally illiquid private equity through blockchain technology. Solana's adoption, driven by its scalability and low-cost transactions, facilitates the trading of tokenized assets. This move is poised to promote the expansion of the RWA market and foster further integration between digital assets and traditional financial markets. 【Overall Summary】 Traditional financial institutions like Visa and Deutsche Börse are increasingly embracing stablecoins, while companies such as Animoca Brands are proceeding with the tokenization of shares. This indicates a deepening integration of digital assets into the real economy. Concurrently, regulatory clarity is advancing, exemplified by the SEC's classification of DePIN tokens as outside its jurisdiction, which is helping to reduce market uncertainty. These factors are expected to encourage institutional adoption, laying the foundation for price stabilization and mid-to-long-term growth for major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.

Chart Analysis

Technical Analysis

The RSI is at 56.0, residing in neutral territory, while the MACD lacks clear direction without any crossover observed. Bollinger Bands indicate price action contained within the bands, suggesting range-bound conditions. A Trend Strength reading of 0.0 underscores the absence of momentum. Overall, there is no clear short-term trend, indicating a low-volatility consolidation phase.

Key Price Levels

Key support is $0.95, resistance is $1.05. A breakout above $1.05 or a breakdown below $0.95 is possible. Short-term profit-taking targets are set between $1.02-$1.03, and stop-losses should be considered on a break below $0.95. Cautious entries could be considered upon confirmation of a breakout or via a contrarian strategy near the range high.

Risk Analysis

Downside risks could stem from macroeconomic shocks, unexpected regulatory tightening, or a deterioration of broad market sentiment. Key support levels are seen around the psychological $1 mark. Factors to watch include Bitcoin's price action, regulatory trends outside the DePIN sector, and development progress within the ADA ecosystem.

Outlook

Over the next 24-48 hours, limited price action is anticipated, reflecting a neutral technical stance. In the medium-term scenario over the coming week, gradual upside potential exists, underpinned by positive fundamental factors. Key catalysts to monitor include tangible developments within the Cardano ecosystem and indications of increased institutional participation.

Conclusion

Conclusion: The ADA market is supported by positive fundamental catalysts reflecting deepening integration with the real economy, such as Visa and Deutsche Börse adopting stablecoins, and Animoca Brands' tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA). The SEC's determination regarding the jurisdictional classification of DePIN tokens is expected to alleviate regulatory uncertainty, thereby fostering investment in the sector. These factors are poised to drive institutional adoption, establishing a foundation for the long-term value preservation and growth of major cryptocurrencies, including ADA. Technically, indicators point to limited short-term directional momentum: the RSI remains in neutral territory, the MACD shows no crossover, and the Bollinger Bands suggest range-bound consolidation. However, given the underlying fundamental strength, a neutral-to-slightly-bullish bias is considered appropriate. The recommended investment strategy involves trading within the current range of $0.95-$1.05, while closely monitoring for signs of a breakout above $1.05 or a breakdown below $0.95. Consider entering long positions upon confirmation of a breakout above $1.05, setting take-profit targets between $1.10 and $1.15. Implement stop-loss orders below $1.00 or at a 5% decline from the entry price. Short-term counter-trend trades near the range high may be viable, but require strict risk management. Key watch items this week include development progress within the Cardano ecosystem, the movements of major holders (akin to XRP 'whales'), and macroeconomic indicators. From a risk management perspective, maintaining vigilance against sudden regulatory shifts or deteriorating market-wide sentiment, and appropriately managing position sizes, are crucial. Implementing these strategies will help navigate market volatility and aim for consistent returns.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Cryptocurrency investments carry high price volatility risks. Please make investment decisions at your own discretion and responsibility.