The approval of the first multi-asset cryptocurrency ETP in the United States, the launch of Solana and XRP futures options by the CME, and the growing interest in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) indicate expanding institutional adoption and market maturation. These fundamentals provide structural strength for major altcoins, including ADA, fostering expectations for mid-to-long-term growth. While the current market bias is neutral, it is supported by positive fundamentals, making a cautiously optimistic stance appropriate.

・US Approves First Multi-Asset Cryptocurrency ETP The SEC's approval of Grayscale's Digital Large Cap Fund (GLDC) offers comprehensive investment opportunities across major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano, further facilitating institutional market participation. This move is expected to enhance overall cryptocurrency market liquidity and attract capital inflows from a broader investor base, contributing to the price stabilization and potential upside for major altcoins, including ADA. ・CME to Launch Solana and XRP Futures Options Trading in October CME Group's planned launch of futures options trading for Solana (SOL) and XRP in October signals an expansion of the derivatives market for these altcoins, broadening risk management and speculative trading opportunities for institutional investors. This initiative is expected to boost market liquidity and enhance price discovery mechanisms. Notably, this hints at the potential for similar derivative products targeting ADA, contributing to the overall sophistication of the cryptocurrency market. ・Australia Eases Licensing Exemptions for Stablecoin Issuers The introduction of licensing exemptions for stablecoin issuers by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) signifies efforts to foster an environment conducive to the proliferation and utilization of stablecoins. This regulatory adjustment is expected to lower barriers for companies seeking to offer stablecoin-related services, thereby supporting market growth. Stablecoins underpinned by cryptocurrencies like ADA, as well as stablecoin utilization within the ADA ecosystem, may also see indirect benefits. ・Crypto Lobby Group Survey: Over 40% of US Citizens Willing to Use DeFi with Clear Regulation A survey by a crypto lobbying group indicates that over 40% of US citizens are willing to utilize DeFi services, contingent on the establishment of a clear regulatory framework. This points to significant latent demand within the DeFi market. It implies that increased regulatory clarity is likely to accelerate institutional and retail participation in DeFi protocols, potentially fueling the growth of DeFi ecosystems, including those supported by ADA. ・US SEC Approves Generic Listing Standards for Expedited Crypto ETF Approvals The SEC's approval of generic listing standards for cryptocurrency ETFs represents a significant step toward accelerating the future launch of a wider range of crypto ETFs. The move aims to streamline the individual application review process, expediting the introduction of ETF products into the market. This is likely to facilitate greater institutional access to major cryptocurrencies, including ADA, potentially acting as a long-term driver for price appreciation. ・DBS, Franklin Templeton, Ripple Form Partnership for Tokenized Lending Services The collaboration between DBS, Franklin Templeton, and Ripple to launch tokenized lending services on the XRP Ledger signifies the integration of traditional financial services for institutional clients with blockchain technology. This development is expected to boost interest in the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWAs) and indicates the potential for similar service offerings on smart contract platforms such as ADA. ・Binance Founder Mentions Rival DEX "Aster", HYPE Token Hits All-Time High Mentions by the Binance founder regarding a rival Decentralized Exchange (DEX), 'Aster', and the subsequent all-time high (ATH) reached by its native token 'HYPE' signal intensifying competition and accelerated innovation within the DEX market. This trend may foster DEX development and adoption within the ADA ecosystem, contributing to the overall vitality of the market. ・Bitcoin Dips Below $115,000 Following Fed's 0.25% Rate Cut Bitcoin's drop below $115,000 after the Federal Reserve's 0.25% interest rate cut could indicate that the market had already priced in the reduction, or it may signal uncertainty regarding future monetary policy tightening. Altcoins such as ADA could experience similar price volatility, making macroeconomic developments a key factor to monitor. Overall Summary: While the Fed's rate cut caused a temporary market reaction, the broader cryptocurrency market has shown multiple structural growth drivers, including the expansion of ETF approvals, the deepening of derivatives markets, and heightened interest in DeFi. Collectively, these elements are poised to enhance institutional engagement with altcoins like ADA, and, combined with evolving regulatory landscapes, they are establishing a foundation for sustained medium- to long-term price appreciation.

Bitcoin's price drop following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut may suggest the market had already priced this in, or indicates uncertainty regarding future monetary policy, posing a risk of impact for ADA as well. Key support levels involve the current $1 mark potentially acting as a psychological barrier. Below this point, support based on historical price ranges will become significant. Regulatory developments, especially the U.S. SEC's upcoming ETF approval processes and advancements in DeFi regulation, require close monitoring due to their potential impact on the ADA ecosystem.

For the next 24-48 hours, assuming market sentiment remains stable, we anticipate consolidation around the current $1 level or a slight upward trend. The key determinant will be the continued positive impact of news regarding broader ETF approvals. Looking at the medium-term scenario for the upcoming week, a gradual move towards higher price levels is expected, provided that strong fundamentals are sustained. However, increased macroeconomic uncertainty could lead to the price remaining within a range-bound market. Key catalysts to monitor include the approval of additional institutional financial products and the progress of network upgrades for ADA, such as the Vasil Hard Fork.

Overall, the ADA market presents a neutral to slightly bullish outlook, underpinned by robust fundamentals. The potential expansion of ETF approvals in the United States, advancements in the derivatives market via CME, and significant anticipated demand within DeFi are expected to fuel institutional adoption, thereby bolstering the long-term growth foundation of the ADA ecosystem. From a technical standpoint, the current market, characterized by the RSI hovering in neutral territory, the absence of a MACD crossover, and price action remaining within the Bollinger Bands, indicates a sideways or range-bound market lacking clear directional conviction. This phase can also be interpreted as a period of consolidation or adjustment. For investment strategy, the current price around $1 presents a potential entry point. However, a more conservative approach might involve accumulating on temporary dips near $0.95, provided the $1 level holds. Short-term profit-taking targets could be set in the $1.10-$1.15 range. Implementing a stop-loss between $0.95-$0.98, triggered by a clear break below $1, would help manage risk while pursuing potential returns. The $1 level remains a critical threshold this week. A move above $1.05 could indicate a resumption of the upward trend, whereas a break below $0.98 would signal heightened short-term downside risk. Therefore, careful observation of price action within this range is essential. From a risk management standpoint, staying attuned to overall market sentiment, specifically the trajectory of Bitcoin, and monitoring announcements from regulators such as the U.S. SEC are paramount. Prudence dictates avoiding excessive leverage and managing position sizes effectively to prepare for unforeseen market fluctuations. Bolstered by its solid technological infrastructure and active ecosystem, ADA is expected to maintain its position as a key player within the cryptocurrency landscape. The prevailing market conditions might present a valuable opportunity for investors with a long-term horizon to explore diversification. Approaching the market with strategic discipline and a positive outlook is advisable.