Key Takeaways: A healthy reset in Futures Open Interest (OI) positions the market for an uptrend. The Mayer Multiple's low levels suggest room towards $180K. Massive ETF inflows strongly signal a 'supercycle'. Overall Market Bias: Bullish.

・BTC, Potential Correction to $118K Amid Futures Reset, Uptrend Intact Bitcoin (BTC) price may see a temporary correction towards the $118,000-$120,000 range. However, a "healthy reset" is underway, indicated by a $4.1 billion decrease in Open Interest (OI) in the futures market, signifying the liquidation of excessive leveraged positions. This can be interpreted as a sign that speculative frenzy is partially subsiding, preparing the market for a more sustainable uptrend. While short-term price declines might temporarily dampen investor sentiment, they present institutional investors with an opportunity for price stabilization and anticipate a healthier market environment for subsequent rallies. The reduction in OI suggests that factors amplifying market volatility are diminishing, likely contributing to medium-to-long-term price stability. ・Mayer Multiple Suggests BTC Not "Overbought," Room for $180K Rally Despite trading near all-time highs, Bitcoin's (BTC) Mayer Multiple—the ratio of its price to the 200-week moving average—stands at a relatively low 1.16. This is significantly below the "overbought" threshold of 2.4. This suggests that the current price range (around $120,000) lacks the froth seen in previous market bubbles, indicating potential upside towards levels like $180,000. Considering the multiple was 1.84 when BTC was at $72,000 in March 2024, the current state appears far from overbought and supports a healthy, long-term bullish trend. This metric signals to institutional investors that the current bull market may still be in its early stages or poised for sustained growth, potentially encouraging further capital inflows. ・New Floor at $110K, BTC Price Target Raised to $150K Analysts suggest Bitcoin (BTC) has established a new "floor" at $110,000, significantly boosting market participants' confidence. The fact that over 60% of investors bought above $95,000 indicates strong resistance against selling below this range, limiting downside risk. Based on this established support level, a rise to $150,000 (approximately $3 trillion market cap) is presented as the logical next target, likely accelerating overall market bullish sentiment. Institutional investors are likely to view this established floor as a basis for more aggressive portfolio allocation and expectations of further upside. This enhances BTC's appeal not just as a store of value but as an active investment asset. ・BTC Dips Below $120K, Bearish Signals Warn of Potential 10% Drop Bitcoin (BTC) briefly falling below $120,000, coupled with bearish divergence, low volume, and a lack of momentum, indicates a potential 10% decline towards the $108,000 level. This signifies the dominance of short-term selling pressure and a temporary pause in price discovery. Amidst declining liquidity, sellers may gain control, accelerating the price decrease. For institutional investors, these short-term bearish signals might trigger caution, leading to adjustments in positions or waiting for more favorable entry points. However, consistent with past patterns, such short-term pullbacks could function as "healthy corrections" supporting a stronger long-term uptrend, potentially presenting buying opportunities for some. ・Precious Metals "Overheated," Investors May Rotate to BTC The "overheated" state of precious metals (gold and silver), driven by a weakening US dollar and inflation hedge demand, provides a strong incentive for investors to seek alternative stores of value. Notably, the potential for the US dollar to record its worst annual performance since 1973 is a key factor accelerating capital inflows into alternative assets, including Bitcoin (BTC). The perceived frothiness in precious metals markets could drive investors to rotate capital into BTC, known for its higher liquidity and dubbed "digital gold," potentially boosting demand and prices. Institutional investors may increasingly evaluate BTC as a complement or alternative to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, diversifying portfolios and hedging against inflation risk. This trend could elevate BTC beyond a speculative asset into a broader asset class. ・BTC Shows Signs of "Supercycle," Driven by ETF Inflows and Broad Accumulation Three key indicators suggest Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a "supercycle." First, sustained massive inflows into spot BTC ETFs ( $2.2 billion last week) demonstrate strong, ongoing institutional demand, acting as a powerful catalyst for price appreciation. Second, accumulation signs across all investor segments, including whales (large holders), indicate broad market support and the potential to absorb short-term selling pressure. Third, a rare "Accumulation Cylinder" chart pattern has formed on the monthly chart, historically signaling bull markets and supporting extremely high price targets ($450K-$500K). These factors suggest BTC may be solidifying its "digital gold" status and entering a new long-term bull market (supercycle), providing institutional investors compelling reasons to reconsider their BTC allocations. ・BTC Stabilizing Around $120K, Supporting $150K Price Target Bitcoin (BTC) is continuing to trade within the $120,000-$125,000 range, consolidating this level as a "high-value area" following approximately an 8% leverage reset in the futures market. Increased spot market buying demand and reduced OI (suggesting closure of short positions) indicate restored confidence among market participants and suggest the short-term price correction may have concluded. Analysts, using the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, predict a 15%-25% rise by year-end, reaching $140,000-$150,000—a significant signal for institutional portfolio allocation considerations. This consolidation phase, tempering exuberance while setting the stage for potential upside, suggests BTC may exhibit stronger performance towards year-end, laying the groundwork for a more sustainable uptrend beyond short-term volatility. ・$11B Whales Bet $900M on BTC/ETH Correction via Shorts A significant whale entity, reportedly holding around $11 billion worth of Bitcoin, has established short positions totaling $600 million in BTC and $300 million in ETH. This move, contrary to broad market optimism, introduces temporary caution into market sentiment and could prompt similar caution among other institutional investors and whales. However, these short positions are set to be liquidated if BTC price surpasses $133,760. A rapid surge towards this level could trigger a short squeeze, potentially amplifying price appreciation. Institutional investors should monitor such contrarian actions by major players as potential indicators of market froth or risk, while executing investment decisions based on their own risk management strategies. Overall Summary While risks of short-term price corrections exist, strong bullish signals—including a low Mayer Multiple, the establishment of a new price floor around $110K, substantial ETF inflows, and broad-based accumulation across all investor tiers—indicate the progression of a Bitcoin (BTC) "supercycle." Weakening USD and overheated precious metal markets are further driving asset rotation into BTC, boosting institutional demand. Although large whale short positions may amplify short-term volatility, the overall outlook favors a sustained medium-to-long-term uptrend, with price stabilization observed near $120,000 and targets set towards $140,000-$150,000 or higher by year-end.

Breaking below $120K signals a risk of a 10% decline towards approximately $108K, although $110K serves as critical support potentially acting as a new floor. A $900 million short position held by large investors contributes to volatility, but the $133,760 liquidation level also holds the potential to trigger a sharp rally.

In the short term (24-48 hours), we anticipate consolidation and a potential rebound within the 110K-114K range. For the medium term (1 week), the prevailing scenario involves breaking through the 120K-125K resistance level to target 150K. Key catalysts include continued inflows into ETFs, persistent inflation concerns, and the unwinding of significant short positions.

Conclusion: Despite indicators pointing towards a potential 10% short-term correction, the Bitcoin market's super cycle remains strongly supported by substantial institutional inflows into ETFs, a low Mayer Multiple, and a new floor solidified at $110,000. A rotation of capital out of precious metals is also accelerating. Following consolidation near $120,000, reaching $140,000-$150,000 by year-end is firmly expected. While short positions from significant holders may increase short-term volatility, this should be regarded as part of a more robust price discovery process. Investors should establish $110,000 as strong support, view a decisive breakout above $125,000 as the next entry point, and set $150,000 as the initial price target. Ensure rigorous risk management by placing stop-losses below $108,000 or limiting exposure to 1-2% of the portfolio. This bull market is still in its early stages, and building strategic positions with a long-term perspective is key to success. Critical watchpoints this week include a clear confirmation above the $120,000 resistance level and the sustained continuation of ETF inflows.