Market momentum is currently driven by the anticipation of altcoin ETF approvals, advancements in cryptocurrency infrastructure integration by major technology companies, and the expansion of services for institutional investors in the Japanese market. These fundamental factors are fostering strong positive sentiment across the market. The overall market bias is therefore 'bullish', as the combined effect of these elements provides a solid foundation for medium-to-long term price appreciation.

Fundamental Analysis Prospects for Altcoin ETF Approval and SEC Developments October marks a critical period for decisions on Altcoin ETFs, including those for Solana, XRP, and Litecoin, drawing significant market attention. While the SEC has suggested potential process simplification by introducing new listing criteria, the ongoing US government shutdown poses a risk of delaying the ETF review process. The approval of these ETFs could establish new channels for capital inflow, following the Bitcoin ETF approvals, potentially boosting liquidity and driving price increases across the altcoin market. Conversely, rejection or a continued cautious stance from regulators could lead to a short-term decline in market sentiment and suppress capital flow into altcoins. Institutional investors are closely monitoring regulatory developments and approval outcomes, likely viewing this as an opportunity to expand access to the altcoin market for risk diversification purposes. Direct Crypto Purchases via Samsung Wallet Samsung is expanding its direct cryptocurrency purchase functionality within the Samsung Wallet for Galaxy smartphone users. An enhanced partnership with Coinbase makes this feature accessible to over 75 million users in the US alone. This integration by a major tech company into crypto infrastructure signifies a move towards mass adoption and acts as a potent driver for acceleration. Particularly, the ability to seamlessly purchase cryptocurrencies on smartphones, devices essential to daily life, significantly lowers the barrier to entry for newcomers. For institutional investors, such adoption-promoting initiatives are valued for their potential contribution to the overall market capitalization and long-term liquidity enhancement of the crypto space. However, limitations regarding available markets and supported currencies need consideration. Cryptocurrency Trading via Walmart-Affiliated App Reports indicate that Walmart's banking app, "OnePay," plans to introduce support for Bitcoin and Ethereum trading within the year. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to become a "super app," similar to China's WeChat, integrating crypto trading capabilities alongside existing banking services. Signs suggest US regulators may favor platforms offering diverse financial services under a unified regulatory framework. This move is expected to accelerate the trend of major retail and financial service companies offering cryptocurrency services to their customers. For institutional investors, this signals the increasing normalization of cryptocurrencies as accessible payment and savings methods, intensifying competition with traditional banking systems. This could enhance the overall credibility of the crypto market and attract new customer segments. US Government Shutdown and Macroeconomic Indicators The US government shutdown is causing delays in the release of economic data, introducing uncertainty into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Meanwhile, receding inflation concerns and labor market weakness maintain expectations for Fed rate cuts, which, alongside gold's momentum, are supporting inflows into Bitcoin. While Bitcoin is partly viewed as "digital gold" for inflation hedging and as a safe-haven asset, a prolonged government shutdown could amplify concerns about an economic slowdown. Institutional investors are closely watching macroeconomic trends, particularly inflation rates, interest rates, and the Fed's policy stance, anticipating these factors will continue to significantly influence Bitcoin's price determination. Despite unavoidable short-term volatility, interest in Bitcoin as an alternative asset is expected to persist amidst ongoing economic uncertainty. Bullish Sentiment in Bitcoin Futures Market and On-Chain Data The Bitcoin futures market is showing structural bullish signals, including accumulation by large investors ("whales") and reduced selling pressure from long-term holders. On-chain data indicates that short-term holders are capitulating, suggesting the market is entering a new accumulation phase. Unfilled gaps in the CME Bitcoin futures market could also serve as potential targets for price appreciation as short positions are liquidated. This data suggests the market is preparing for a further price discovery phase, potentially indicating that institutional investors are building bullish positions while managing risk. Although the risk of short-term price corrections remains, the market's fundamentals appear strengthened, supporting a sustainable upward trend. Expansion of Institutional Services in the Japanese Market Laser Digital, a subsidiary of Nomura Holdings, has initiated preliminary negotiations to acquire a crypto asset license in Japan. Concurrently, Daiwa Securities Group is introducing crypto lending services, reflecting a broader trend of major Japanese securities firms expanding their offerings for institutional investors. Amidst regulatory easing by the Japanese government, including tax system reviews and the legalization of stablecoins, institutional participation in the crypto market is accelerating. For institutional investors, the development of regulatory frameworks and the subsequent maturation of markets in each region are crucial elements for investment decisions. The revitalization of the Japanese market could spur increased crypto investment across the Asia-Pacific region, potentially driving growth in the global institutional investor market as a whole. SWIFT's Entry into Blockchain Payment Systems The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) has confirmed the development of a new blockchain-based payment system built on Linea, an Ethereum Layer 2 solution. This initiative involves Consensys and dozens of traditional financial institutions. The adoption of blockchain technology by SWIFT, which processes approximately $150 trillion in daily cross-border payments, holds significant implications. This move symbolizes the convergence of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Traditional Finance (TradFi), promising expedited settlements, reduced costs, and enhanced transparency in payments. For institutional investors, the integration of blockchain technology into existing financial infrastructure suggests further expansion of cryptocurrency use cases in payments and increased market credibility. Competition with solutions like Ripple's XRP Ledger may also intensify. Comprehensive Summary The cryptocurrency market in early October is characterized by a complex interplay of expectations surrounding Altcoin ETF approvals, service expansions by major companies like Samsung and Walmart, and macroeconomic shifts due to the US government shutdown. Despite short-term volatility, overall market sentiment remains predominantly bullish. Institutional investors are closely observing structural market growth and regulatory developments, such as Nomura's new venture in the Japanese market and SWIFT's payment system overhaul, hinting at potential long-term capital inflows. These combined factors are expected to form the foundation supporting the medium-to-long-term price appreciation of Bitcoin and related markets.

Risk Analysis: Potential downside risks include amplified concerns about an economic slowdown due to a prolonged US government shutdown, delays or denials in the approval of Altcoin ETFs, and unexpected tightening measures from regulators. An RSI of 85.0 signals a potential risk of a short-term correction. The key support level is the recent low of $108,964. A break below this point warrants caution against further declines. Market participants should continue to monitor Fed policy, inflation rates, and actions by regulators worldwide.

**Outlook** **Short-term (24-48 Hours):** In the upcoming 24-48 hours, news surrounding altcoin ETFs has the potential to increase short-term volatility. However, we anticipate a sideways to mildly upward trend, underpinned by fundamental strengths such as robust ETF inflows and adoption by major corporations. **Medium-term (Weekly):** Over the medium term (one week), developments concerning a potential US government shutdown and information regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be the primary drivers shaping market direction. Positive outcomes could potentially lead towards the $130,000s. **Key Catalysts:** Notable catalysts to watch include final decisions on altcoin ETF approvals, progress on the government shutdown situation, and the release of key economic indicators.

The Bitcoin market in early October continues its strong upward trend, supported by positive fundamentals including expectations for altcoin ETF approvals, expansions in services by major corporations, and regulatory easing in the Japanese market. While macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from the US government shutdown introduces short-term volatility, continuous large inflows into ETFs are solidifying this bullish sentiment. Despite RSI overbought signals, robust on-chain data and institutional buying strongly support the potential for further upside. We maintain a 'decidedly bullish' stance on the Bitcoin market. Investors should view short-term corrections as opportunities to buy the dip, considering entry points between $118,000 and $122,000. Our initial take-profit target is set at $130,000-$135,000, while strictly adhering to a stop-loss level of $118,000. This week, attention should be focused on the final approval decision for altcoin ETFs, developments regarding the US government shutdown, and SWIFT's entry into blockchain-based payment systems. These catalysts have the potential to propel Bitcoin into its next price discovery phase. For risk management, it is crucial to confirm the maintenance of the $108,964 support level, exercise caution regarding market overheating, and focus on the long-term growth narrative. Bitcoin offers solid growth opportunities, with the potential for substantial returns through prudent strategy and risk management.