A US government shutdown is likely to fuel expectations of monetary easing, supporting a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Technical analysis confirms a bullish pattern targeting levels above $127,500, strongly suggesting a Q4 rally. Sustained institutional inflows into ETFs and corporate buying are bolstering the market, indicating an overall bullish bias.

・US Government Shutdown Signals Market Bottoming While a US government shutdown presents a short-term risk-off factor, historically it has boosted expectations for monetary easing, potentially driving long-term rallies in risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC). A potential reassessment of BTC as a "safe haven" could strengthen its "digital gold" narrative. Analysts suggesting a market bottom indicate that current price levels might be undervalued, fostering expectations for a future rebound. For institutional investors, this could increase interest in BTC as a portfolio diversification tool amidst macroeconomic uncertainty. However, a prolonged shutdown or unexpected economic impacts carry the risk of short-term selling pressure. ・October Bitcoin Price: Technical Analysis Suggests Bullish Outlook Technical analysis for Bitcoin points to target prices between $127,500 and $137,000, derived from bullish patterns like double bottoms and symmetrical triangles, potentially driving short-term market sentiment. Notably, a breakout above the $117,300 neckline and the potential liquidation of short positions between $118,000-$119,000 (a short squeeze) could accelerate an upward trend. Historical data from past "Pumptober" periods further bolsters the bullish scenario's credibility. The rebound in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a potential resumption of momentum, serving as a positive sign for traders focused on market momentum. Institutional investors may incorporate these technical signals into their trading strategies and risk management models to guide entry and exit points. ・September's Green Candle Foretells Q4 Rally; On-Chain Data Confirms Market Strength The historical pattern where a positive September candle precedes a market upswing in October (the "Q4 rally") is being closely watched by market participants as a seasonal anomaly. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio RSI (SSR RSI) signaling a "buy" indicates abundant market liquidity and strong purchasing power for Bitcoin, suggesting an environment conducive to institutional entry. Furthermore, the accumulation of Bitcoin by long-term holders (HODlers) can be interpreted as a sign of robust underlying fundamentals and long-term confidence in future price appreciation. This on-chain data serves as a metric of structural market strength, extending beyond mere technical analysis, and is attracting attention from institutional investors. An increase in Tether (USDT) supply also suggests a fresh influx of liquidity into the market, potentially supporting price increases. ・Major Corporations' Bulk Bitcoin Purchases Solidify Digital Gold Status Bitcoin holdings on corporate balance sheets are crucial in establishing BTC's position as digital gold. Metaplanet's recent additional purchase, valued at approximately $600 million, serves as a signal not only for the company itself but also for other corporations and institutional investors regarding the efficacy of holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset. This increases the amount of Bitcoin supply that is locked long-term, akin to its "digital reserves," creating upward price pressure from a supply-demand perspective. Notably, the unrealized gains demonstrating the effectiveness of Metaplanet's strategy could serve as a precedent for traditional financial institutions considering similar strategies. This contributes to the overall credibility of the cryptocurrency market and may further encourage institutional adoption. ・European Fiscal Deficits Fuel BTC via ECB Easing Expectations Widening fiscal deficits in Europe, particularly in France, are likely to prompt monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB), specifically Quantitative Easing (QE). QE involves the central bank injecting significant liquidity into the market. Historically, such excess liquidity has accelerated capital inflows into risk assets like stock and cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin's past price surges during previous QE periods suggest the effectiveness of this mechanism. If the ECB implements a "trillion-euro" scale liquidity injection, substantial capital inflows into the Bitcoin market could be anticipated, potentially acting as a powerful catalyst for BTC's price appreciation. This underscores the significant impact of macroeconomic shifts on crypto markets and provides crucial insights for institutional investors monitoring global monetary policy trends. ・Professional Trader Caution vs. ETF Inflows: A Polarized Market Sentiment Despite recent BTC price drops, professional traders maintain a risk-averse stance, indicated by elevated put option premiums in the options market. This reflects caution regarding macroeconomic uncertainties, such as deteriorating US employment data. Rising recession risks could negatively impact risk assets broadly. However, persistent large-scale inflows into Bitcoin ETFs suggest underlying demand for Bitcoin and a strong conviction among institutional investors that potentially outweighs these macroeconomic risks, indicating a long-term buying posture. This points to the ongoing trend of incorporating BTC into portfolios as "digital gold" or an inflation hedge. The market appears to be seeking equilibrium between short-term price drivers (like employment data) and medium-to-long-term capital flow factors (ETF demand). ・Historical Patterns and On-Chain Data Point to Bullish Q4 Forecast Based on historical data, Bitcoin closing September with a positive candle (a "Green September") has often preceded strong Q4 rallies. If this pattern repeats, an ascent towards the $170,000 level within the year becomes plausible. Alongside this historical anomaly, on-chain data, including positive shifts in Spot Taker CVD and continued net buying from US investors indicated by the Coinbase Premium Index, suggest strengthening buying pressure in the market. This corroborates expanding spot demand not only from retail investors but also from institutional players. Increased demand from US investors, in particular, signifies a growing appetite for dollar-denominated Bitcoin purchases, drawing attention from a global capital flows perspective. The confluence of these factors could propel Bitcoin into a new price discovery phase, and institutional investors may begin pricing in a bullish Q4 scenario. ・Overall Summary As of October 2, 2025, the cryptocurrency market exhibits persistent bullish sentiment for Bitcoin, despite short-term uncertainty stemming from the US government shutdown, with expectations high for a significant Q4 upswing. Fundamental strengths, such as continuous inflows into ETFs and substantial Bitcoin purchases by corporations, provide underlying support. While concerns regarding European fiscal deficits and broader macroeconomic conditions exist, these may paradoxically fuel expectations for monetary easing, potentially benefiting Bitcoin.

Short-term risks include the potential prolongation of a US government shutdown and unforeseen economic consequences. The key support level is the recent low of $108,964, while maintaining the $117,300 neckline is crucial in the short term. Overbought conditions indicated by the RSI and heightened caution towards macroeconomic uncertainties represent risks for a short-term correction.

**Outlook** **Short-term (24-48 hours):** Continued inflows into ETFs, coupled with expectations of monetary easing, may support further price appreciation. **Mid-term (1 week):** September's bullish candlestick pattern provides strong support for a Q4 rally, anticipating a move beyond $127,500. **Key Catalysts:** Developments regarding a potential US government shutdown, ECB monetary policy decisions, and announcements of new corporate Bitcoin purchases are key factors to watch.

In conclusion, the Bitcoin market is in a clear bullish trend. Despite short-term uncertainties stemming from a potential US government shutdown, strong underlying support comes from persistent, large-scale ETF inflows from institutional investors ($430 million daily on average), significant corporate Bitcoin acquisitions, and expectations of monetary easing amid European fiscal deficits. Technically, a bullish pattern targeting the $127,500-$137,000 range is forming, and the bullish candlestick pattern in September confirms the likelihood of a Q4 rally. Investors should consider entry points after confirming a breakout above $117,704, while remaining mindful of the $117,300 support level. Short-term profit targets are set at $127,500, mid-term targets at $137,000, with a stop-loss below $117,300. For risk management, closely monitor developments regarding the government shutdown, ECB monetary policy, and the S&P 500's trajectory to assess market equilibrium. This strongly indicates Bitcoin is solidifying its position as 'digital gold' and entering a new price discovery phase. Confidently, let's formulate a strategy to capitalize on this uptrend.