Bitcoin's market faces short-term headwinds from diverging price outlooks, uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy, and continued outflows from ETFs. However, long-term bullish factors, notably the accelerating adoption of digital assets by financial institutions, are also present, placing the market at a potential inflection point. Overall Market Bias: Neutral (maintaining a positive outlook)

## Fundamental Analysis Bitcoin Price Prediction: $60K or $140K? Traders Divided Analysts are divided on the future trajectory of BTC prices, citing similarities between the current market structure and the patterns observed during the 2021 market top. The analysis suggests a potential repetition of past patterns, particularly highlighting a "bearish fractal" scenario where BTC mirrors the four-stage process seen in 2021. In this scenario, BTC would transition from its previous all-time high zone into a distribution phase, followed by a significant correction potentially down to the $60,000 level or lower. This reflects a typical pattern after sharp rallies in past bull markets, with some traders anticipating a recurrence of historical chart patterns. Specifically, a breakdown from the ascending wedge formation on the weekly chart is seen as increasing the risk of a decline towards the $60,000-$62,000 zone, coinciding with the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Some analysts even project a potential drop to $50,000. Conversely, the bulls point to the support cluster formed by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and EMA, around the $104,000-$106,000 range, as establishing a "medium-term bottom." From this point, they anticipate a rebound. This bullish scenario posits that BTC is still far from its cycle top, with the U.S. economic cycle also yet to peak. Under continued Fed rate cuts, they estimate an additional 3-4 months of upward potential. This outlook suggests Bitcoin could reach $140,000 or higher, representing a substantial increase from current levels. Analysts indicate that if BTC retests the $104,000 support near the 200-day moving average and breaks through the $113,000 resistance zone, it would confirm a bullish flag pattern, potentially paving the way for a rally to $140,000 within months. From an institutional investor perspective, this divergence in price targets underscores significant market uncertainty. While historical pattern analysis can be a useful indicator, the emergence of new factors, such as the introduction of ETFs, alters market structures, potentially limiting the predictability of past patterns. The $60,000 downside scenario could correlate with the materialization of macroeconomic or regulatory risks, like fading expectations of Fed rate cuts or increased regulatory scrutiny, necessitating rigorous risk management in portfolios. Conversely, the $140,000 upside scenario hinges on the Fed's dovish monetary policy (see Article 9) and sustained institutional demand (see Article 19). Currently, the market is expected to remain range-bound with continued high volatility. Strategies involving risk hedging through the options market or breakout trading may prove effective. Bitcoin Stalls Around $110K Amid Gold and Stock Gains. What's Suppressing BTC Price? Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim the $110,000 level on Friday, contrary to trader expectations, with the market showing continued weakness compared to rallies in gold and equities. Despite the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising in line with market forecasts at 2.7%, the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, diminishing expectations of rates falling below 3.75% this year. This macroeconomic environment, coupled with reports of investigations by the SEC and other bodies into certain crypto-related firms, and uncertainty surrounding the "US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan," is weighing on BTC prices. The surge in gold prices nearing all-time highs suggests investors are shifting funds to traditional safe-haven assets amidst uncertainty. The S&P 500 has also advanced, driven by increased U.S. consumer spending, indicating rising corporate earnings and reduced risk aversion. From an institutional investor viewpoint, BTC's underperformance relative to safe-haven gold and its divergent movement from stock markets are noteworthy. This suggests that BTC's risk-asset characteristics are currently more pronounced during its ongoing quest to establish its "digital gold" status. The Fed's persistent caution on rate cuts, even with inline PCE inflation data, presents a headwind for risk assets, including BTC. The direction of Fed monetary policy is a primary driver for BTC prices, and delays in rate cuts could curb capital allocation towards BTC. SEC investigations into crypto firms introduce new regulatory risks for market participants, increasing uncertainty. Investigations into "treasury companies" (companies holding crypto assets) could raise concerns about their financial health and business continuity. The ambiguity surrounding the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan fuels speculation about government involvement in the BTC market and potential future holdings, but a lack of concrete progress dampens anticipation. These combined factors are analyzed as contributing to BTC's inability to break above $110,000 and its formation of a range-bound market. The inflow into gold and stock markets signals a decline in overall market risk sentiment, demanding a more cautious approach to investment decisions in BTC. Ethereum ETF Sees Continued Outflows for a Week, $796 Million Departs, Price Drops 10% Spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs in the U.S. recorded net outflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling $796 million for the week. ETH prices also fell approximately 10% over the week, trading around $4,013. This marks a larger outflow and price decline compared to the previous instance where spot ETH ETFs experienced outflows for five consecutive days (week ending Sept 5), during which ETH prices hovered around $4,300. Analysts interpret this outflow streak as a sign of "capitulation driven by extremely high levels of panic selling." A decrease in retail participation in ETH is also noted, with net taker volume on Binance remaining negative for the past month, signaling ongoing selling pressure. Concurrently, spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs saw net outflows of $897.6 million during the same period, with BTC prices declining 5.28% over seven days. From an institutional investor perspective, the sustained outflows from ETH ETFs strongly indicate bearish sentiment towards the ETH market. Factors contributing to this include waning expectations for staking functionality approval, the decline in ETH's price itself, and a broader market tilt towards the bearish side. Comparisons with past ETF outflow trends suggest the current market may be in a "capitulation" phase, which typically precedes a market bottom. However, given the persistent uncertainty surrounding Fed policy and regulatory developments, while short-term rebounds are possible, downside risks remain. The outflows from BTC ETFs also suggest a decline in overall ETF interest or profit-taking and risk-off moves by institutional investors, contributing to reduced market liquidity and downward price pressure. ETF flows are a key indicator of institutional sentiment; as long as outflows persist, a recovery in both BTC and ETH prices is expected to take time. Bullish Bitcoin Positions Liquidated Below $110K; Can October Reignite Risk-On Sentiment? Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its sharpest weekly decline since March, falling below $110,000. This correction led to the liquidation of over 60,000 BTC in leveraged positions (including $11.8 billion in altcoins and $3.2 billion in speculative BTC positions), resetting market risk appetite. Falling below the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis of $109,700 for the first time in five months signaled stress among speculative market participants. Market sentiment also deteriorated sharply, with the Advanced Market Sentiment Index plummeting from 86% (Extreme Optimism) to 15% (Pessimism). However, historical seasonality indicates that October has historically delivered strong returns for BTC, marking positive returns for the past seven consecutive years. From an institutional investor perspective, the recent liquidation of leveraged positions can be viewed as a "healthy correction" necessary to purge market overheating and excessive speculative positions. This could reduce market fragility and pave the way for a more sustainable recovery. Breaking below the STH cost basis suggests the exit of short-term traders, potentially limiting further selling pressure. While the sharp drop in market sentiment could lead to temporary panic selling, levels below 20% often precede technical bounces. October's seasonality, based on historical data, presents a bullish signal for BTC, with an average increase of 21.89% recorded over the past seven years. This suggests the market is entering its most seasonally strong period, hinting that the current price decline might be short-lived. However, macroeconomic uncertainties (Fed policy, inflation trends) and regulatory risks (SEC, CFTC actions) remain significant headwinds, advising against excessive optimism based solely on seasonality. Strategic considerations include waiting for market stabilization post-liquidation, considering long positions leveraging seasonality, or engaging in short-term trading within a range-bound market. Bitcoin Ignores PCE Inflation, Breaks $109K Support Bitcoin (BTC) tested its September lows during Friday's U.S. market open, as the PCE inflation data failed to act as a bullish catalyst. BTC/USD faced the risk of breaking down below $109,000, with some traders targeting a drop to $100,000. While the PCE price index rose 2.7% as expected by the market, the Federal Reserve remains cautious about rate cuts, meaning the rate cuts eagerly anticipated by cryptocurrency and risk asset traders are not materializing as hoped. This situation is causing market confusion, with some analyses suggesting the Fed might continue rate cuts despite the PCE, its "favored" inflation indicator, reaching a seven-month high. From an institutional investor perspective, BTC's lack of positive reaction to the inline PCE inflation data suggests that macroeconomic indicators may be losing their short-term influence on BTC price action. The breakdown below the $109,000 support line serves as a bearish technical signal, increasing the risk of a double-top formation. This could exacerbate short-term pessimism and drive a decline towards $100,000. However, the deep liquidity observed in the order books of major exchanges like Binance suggests prices may oscillate within a certain range. The direction of Fed monetary policy, particularly the timing and magnitude of rate cuts, remains the most significant factor influencing BTC prices. The current scenario, where rate cut expectations recede despite inline PCE data, indicates sticky inflationary pressures and a hawkish Fed stance, posing a headwind for risk assets overall. Investors need to closely monitor macroeconomic trends, especially the Fed's policy-making process, beyond short-term technical analysis. Bitcoin's "Biggest Bull Catalyst"? The Next Fed Chair Appointment - Novogratz Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, stated that the appointment of a highly dovish candidate as the next Federal Reserve Chair could represent the most significant bull catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets. He suggested that if the Fed were to cut rates prematurely and a "super dove" were appointed, it could trigger a "blow-off top" moment for Bitcoin. However, Novogratz expressed concerns that such a scenario would be highly detrimental to the U.S. economy and could undermine the Fed's independence. A dovish Fed stance typically weakens the U.S. dollar, but it is often viewed as bullish for Bitcoin and other risk assets due to declining yields on traditional assets like bonds and savings accounts. From an institutional investor perspective, the direction of macroeconomic policy, exemplified by the Fed Chair appointment, is one of the most critical factors influencing BTC prices. A dovish appointee could heighten expectations for monetary easing, leading to dollar depreciation and a capital shift into risk assets, thereby creating strong upward pressure on BTC prices. This could significantly impact short-term market sentiment and accelerate investments in BTC. However, as Novogratz points out, such easing carries risks to the sustainability of the U.S. economy. Side effects like rekindled inflation or diminished dollar confidence could negatively impact the BTC market in the long run. Therefore, institutional investors must construct portfolio strategies that balance the potential for short-term gains with consideration of the long-term risks associated with potential economic damage. If President Trump follows through on his pledge to appoint a "dove," the market might react with an "OMG" moment, potentially triggering a surge in gold and BTC prices. The uncertainty surrounding this personnel decision fuels speculation among market participants and increases volatility. Crypto Biz: Wall Street Turns the Key: Banks, Stablecoins, and Tokenized Collateral Accelerate The integration of cryptocurrencies and Traditional Finance (TradFi) is accelerating. Major banks are launching crypto trading services, expanding stablecoin initiatives, and preparing for potential regulatory changes that could allow tokenized assets to be used as collateral in derivatives markets. Morgan Stanley's E*Trade plans to offer cryptocurrency trading (BTC, ETH, SOL) starting in 2026 through a partnership with infrastructure provider Zerohash, another sign of major banks entering the digital asset space. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated he is "not particularly worried" about stablecoins, viewing blockchain-based tokens not as a threat to the bank's core business model, but emphasizing the need to "always keep track and understand" them given the industry's rapid growth and the recent passage of the GENIUS Act (potentially banning yield-bearing stablecoins). Dimon noted that outside the U.S., people may want to hold dollars in stablecoins due to varying levels of trust in different jurisdictions and banking systems. JPMorgan itself acknowledges exploring the possibility of issuing stablecoins via a consortium. The CFTC is evaluating whether stablecoins and other tokenized assets can be used as collateral in derivatives markets, potentially expanding their role in traditional finance. CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham stated she is "working closely with stakeholders" and a public comment period is open until October 20th. From an institutional investor perspective, the accelerating entry of major financial institutions into the crypto market is strong evidence of market maturation and long-term growth potential. The introduction of crypto trading by platforms like E*Trade will enhance accessibility for retail and some institutional investors, boosting overall market liquidity. The fact that even skeptics like JPMorgan's Dimon acknowledge the potential of stablecoins and are monitoring industry trends highlights the market's significance. Regulatory developments like the GENIUS Act could foster the healthy growth of the stablecoin market and play a crucial role, particularly in maintaining and expanding the international dominance of the U.S. dollar. The CFTC's review of tokenized collateral will broaden the role of crypto assets in derivatives markets, further integrating them with traditional financial markets. These movements indicate a shift from crypto assets being merely speculative instruments to becoming integral parts of the broader financial system, presenting new investment opportunities and necessitating risk management for institutional investors. Michael Saylor's continued bullish outlook on BTC underscores its value as a corporate holding, reflecting a belief that long-term institutional demand will absorb limited supply and drive prices higher. Stablecoin Boom Risks "Cryptoization," Fragmented Regulation Makes Economies Vulnerable — Moody's Emerging markets face risks to monetary sovereignty and financial stability as stablecoin and cryptocurrency adoption accelerates globally, according to a new report by Moody's Ratings. The rating agency warns that the widespread use of stablecoins (tokens typically pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies like the US dollar) could trigger a trend known as "cryptoization," weakening central banks' ability to control interest and exchange rates. Banks could also face "deposit erosion" if individuals shift savings from domestic bank deposits to stablecoins or crypto wallets. Moody's notes that digital asset regulation remains fragmented globally, with less than a third of countries having implemented comprehensive rules, leaving many economies exposed to volatility and systemic shocks. While regulatory clarity and expanded investment channels are driving adoption in advanced economies, Moody's observes the fastest growth occurring in emerging markets (particularly Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa), where usage stems from remittances, mobile payments, and inflation hedging. The report states, "The rapid growth of stablecoins, despite their perceived safety, introduces systemic vulnerabilities. Insufficient oversight could trigger runs on reserves and force costly government bailouts if pegs collapse." From an institutional investor perspective, the Moody's report highlights the macroeconomic and financial stability risks posed by the rapid proliferation of stablecoins. "Cryptoization," particularly in emerging markets, could undermine central banks' monetary policy operational capacity and accelerate capital outflows. This increases volatility in global financial markets, impacting the broader crypto market, including BTC. A fragmented regulatory landscape may encourage regulatory arbitrage and evasion attempts, requiring investors to carefully assess regional regulatory risks. Conversely, progress in regulatory frameworks like the EU's MiCA and the U.S.'s GENIUS Act is expected to contribute to market clarity and stability. China's consideration of a Yuan-pegged stablecoin signals potential shifts in the role of digital currencies within the international financial system. The transparency and safety of reserve management by stablecoin issuers are critical for financial system stability, making assessments by rating agencies like Moody's key factors in investment decisions. Price Prediction 9/26: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, HYPE, LINK, AVAX Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen near the support of its major range, suggesting potential for a short-term relief rally. However, profit-taking by Long-Term Holders (LTH) reaching 3.4 million BTC and a slowdown in inflows to exchanges post-Fed rate cuts indicate market exhaustion and downside risk. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw weekly net outflows of $479 million, signaling weakening institutional demand. BTC's Thursday decline pushed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index into the "Fear" territory. BTC's weakness dragged down many major altcoins, reflecting negative sentiment as traders rush to exit positions. The only hope for bulls is that BTC has not yet broken below the range support between $107,000 and $124,474. BTC has reversed from the 20-day EMA ($113,217), turning sentiment negative. Sellers need to break the $107,000 support to complete a double-top pattern. If successful, selling could accelerate, potentially driving the BTC/USDT pair down to $100,000. Buyers are expected to defend the $100,000 level fiercely, but a break below could open a path to the pattern target of $89,526. Conversely, if BTC price reverses and moves above the moving averages, it suggests the pair may fluctuate within the $107,000-$124,474 range for a few more days. Ethereum (ETH) continued its decline, breaking below the $4,060 support on Thursday, indicating bears maintain pressure. Moving averages have completed a bearish cross, and the RSI is in negative territory, suggesting downside is the path of least resistance. A break below the $3,745 support could send the ETH/USDT pair towards the pattern target of $3,426, and potentially $3,350. Bulls are likely to face significant selling pressure from bears at the moving averages and resistance lines. From an institutional investor perspective, BTC's decline towards its range support, accompanied by deteriorating sentiment in altcoins, signals short-term market uncertainty. Whether BTC can hold the $107,000 support level is key to determining the short-term direction. A break below this level would make scenarios involving a drop to $100,000 or even $89,526 more plausible. This would exert further selling pressure across the market, increasing reliance on macroeconomic factors like Fed policy and regulatory developments. Major altcoins such as ETH, XRP, BNB, and SOL are showing similar technical bearish signals, indicating a broader risk-off sentiment. Institutional investors are likely adopting a wait-and-see strategy at this juncture, focusing on confirming market bottoms and rigorous risk management before seeking opportunities. Particularly, if BTC holds its range support and a relief rally occurs, altcoins might follow, but the strength and sustainability of such a rebound could be limited. Bitcoin Support at $109K Absorbed by Bears; PCE Inflation Proves Ineffective Bitcoin (BTC) tested its September lows during Friday's Wall Street trading session, as U.S. inflation data failed to provide a bullish boost. BTC/USD faced the risk of breaking below $109,000, with some traders targeting a decline to $100,000. Although the PCE price index rose 2.7% as expected by the market, the Federal Reserve remains cautious about rate cuts, leaving the market uncertain about the direction of Fed monetary policy. The fading expectations of Fed rate cuts act as a headwind for risk assets, including BTC, driving capital shifts into gold and stock markets. Gold prices surging towards all-time highs suggest investors are moving capital into safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, reports of investigations by the SEC and other entities into crypto-related firms further heighten market uncertainty. From an institutional investor perspective, BTC's failure to hold the $109,000 support level is seen as a short-term bearish signal. This could accelerate deteriorating market sentiment and lead to further downward pressure. BTC's lack of reaction to the inline PCE inflation data suggests a potential decrease in the short-term impact of macroeconomic indicators, implying that more structural factors, such as the direction of Fed monetary policy and regulatory actions, are influencing price formation. SEC investigations introduce new regulatory risks and increase uncertainty for market participants. Notably, investigations into "treasury companies" could raise concerns about their financial health and operational continuity. Investors must carefully monitor macroeconomic trends, particularly the Fed's policy decisions and regulatory developments, beyond short-term technical analysis. While a drop to $100,000 could amplify market pessimism, it might also create opportunities for a rebound after excessive selling pressure is relieved. [Overall Summary] The cryptocurrency market on September 26th was dominated by bearish sentiment, as Bitcoin broke below key support levels, temporarily raising the risk of a decline towards $100,000. Continuous outflows from ETFs, receding expectations for Fed rate cuts, and signs of regulatory tightening from the SEC have heightened market uncertainty. However, potential bullish factors such as accelerating entry of major banks into crypto services and October's seasonality indicate a polarized market. While high volatility is expected in the short term, the market anticipates recovery and maturation driven by long-term institutional demand and the ongoing development of the regulatory landscape.

The primary downside risk is breaking below the $107,000 support level. If this occurs, the risk of a decline to $100,000, and potentially towards the pattern target of $89,526, increases. Macroeconomic and regulatory risks, including the Federal Reserve's delay in rate cuts, signs of increased regulatory scrutiny from the SEC, and cascading outflows from Ethereum ETFs, will likely continue to weigh on the market. Monitoring these factors and implementing rigorous risk management are paramount in the current market environment.

Over the next 24-48 hours, holding the $107,000 support level is crucial. Maintaining this support could trigger a short-term relief rally; conversely, a break below this level suggests further declines are likely. For the weekly timeframe, the market is expected to continue trading within a range. Price action will likely be influenced by Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy shifts and regulatory developments. Nonetheless, there is potential for seasonal strength to emerge in the latter half of October. Key catalysts anticipated to drive the market include Fed rate decisions, progress on new regulations, and positive announcements from major financial institutions.

The current Bitcoin market stands at a critical juncture, marked by a confluence of short-term bearish signals and enduring long-term bullish factors. The defense of the crucial $107,000 support level is paramount in determining the immediate future direction. Should this support hold, bolstered by October's historical seasonality, a relief rally towards the upper range of $113,000-$124,474 is conceivable. For those considering accumulation, a phased entry approach with a stop-loss set below $107,000 would be prudent. Conversely, a breach of the $107,000 support could precipitate a decline towards $100,000 and potentially $89,526. In such a scenario, macroeconomic and regulatory risks, including concerns over Federal Reserve monetary policy and SEC investigations, are likely to intensify. Under these conditions, avoiding aggressive long positions and waiting for clear signs of market stabilization before entering would be the advised strategy. Key focus points for the latter half of the week include the resilience of the $107,000 support and the ability to reclaim the 20-day EMA, currently situated around $113,217$. Successfully surpassing these levels could signal a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. However, continued outflows from ETFs remain a point of caution, underscoring the importance of monitoring institutional investor activity. We should view market volatility as an opportunity. The prevailing sentiment of 'fear' may present a timely entry point for discerning investors aiming for significant long-term returns. Structural shifts, such as major banks entering the cryptocurrency space and evolving regulations for stablecoins, are laying the groundwork for Bitcoin to solidify its position as 'digital gold' and achieve sustained value appreciation. Therefore, our strategic approach this week involves closely monitoring the $107,000 level as the primary watch zone. If this level is maintained and shows signs of a bounce, we will consider initiating long positions targeting a return to the $110,000s. Initial stop-loss orders should be placed just below $107,000, with profit targets set at $113,000 initially, and potentially $124,474 if the uptrend extends. Conversely, if $107,000 decisively breaks, exploring tactical short positions or awaiting market stabilization would be advisable. Rigorous risk management and a long-term perspective are essential for navigating this dynamic market successfully. Continued attention should be paid to developments regarding the next Fed Chair appointment and any positive news from regulatory bodies.