Today, the sharp decline in the Fear & Greed Index signals a potential short-term reversal. While outflows from ETFs are proving temporary, cumulative net inflows remain robust. Regulatory easing and new ETF applications strongly support increased institutional adoption. The overall market bias is assessed as 'moderately bullish' for the medium to long term, despite navigating a short-term consolidation phase.

・The Fear & Greed Index has plummeted, showing signs of a potential short-term market reversal based on historical patterns. The growing pessimism among retail investors often serves as a leading indicator for price increases. Institutional investors may view such extreme sentiment as a buying opportunity, but they will simultaneously analyze the macroeconomic environment and liquidity trends to assess the likelihood of a reversal. ・Profit-taking by long-term holders and slowing inflows into ETFs suggest market 'exhaustion'. Trends in the Realized Profit/Loss ratio and SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicate market stress and capitulation selling by some holders, increasing liquidation risks for short-term holders. Institutional investors interpret these signals as a shift in supply and demand dynamics, prompting consideration of position adjustments and risk hedging. ・The market is experiencing mixed sentiment ahead of a $22 billion Bitcoin options expiry. Traders are reducing bullish positions, with the expiry range ($95K-$110K) becoming the focus of price action. While there are expectations of easing selling pressure post-expiry, ETF inflows suggest cautious optimism. Institutional investors assess the short-term volatility associated with the options expiry as an opportunity for risk management or arbitrage. ・Despite the decline in Bitcoin's price, buy orders in the spot market are trending upward. Although institutional-sized sell orders remain dominant, the spot order book's buy-sell ratio is tilting towards buyers, showing similar signs observed prior to past rallies. An increase in buying volume is also confirmed by the 4-hour Accumulate/Distribution Delta, suggesting institutional investors may evaluate this as a potential bottom-fishing opportunity. ・Strong US employment data led to a rise in the dollar index (DXY), receding rate cut expectations, and a subsequent decline in risk assets, including Bitcoin. Bitcoin is currently retesting the $110K level; a drop below this threshold increases the risk of a decline to $100K. Institutional investors recognize the resurgence of dollar strength and higher interest rate expectations as a headwind for risk assets across the board, prompting potential risk adjustments in portfolios. ・BlackRock has filed for a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, aiming to generate yield from its Bitcoin holdings by utilizing covered call options. This move enhances Bitcoin's aspect as a 'yield-generating asset' and presents new investment strategies for institutional investors. Amid a generally positive regulatory stance towards diverse crypto products, this could accelerate the diversification of Bitcoin holding and management methods. ・The cryptocurrency market anticipates price increases in Q4, driven by market structure bills, stablecoins, and the growth of ETPs (Exchange-Traded Products). Regulatory clarity in the US (e.g., CLARITY Act, approval of ETP listing standards) is expected to facilitate institutional entry. The proliferation of stablecoins and the advancement of tokenization are also positive factors. Anticipated Fed rate cuts are expected to provide further support, contributing to overall market maturation and expanded capital inflows. ・The SEC's modification of ETP listing standards is set to accelerate the approval process for crypto ETFs. This could shorten the launch timelines for ETFs tracking new assets from months or years down to mere months. While institutional investors welcome the reduced barrier to market entry and expedited processes, SEC commissioners maintain a cautious stance regarding investor protection, necessitating close monitoring of regulatory developments. ・Google is supporting Bitcoin miner TeraWulf in a $3 billion funding round to build AI data centers. This signals a convergence of crypto mining and AI infrastructure, with the increased demand for data centers fueled by the AI boom offering new revenue streams and diversification opportunities for mining companies. Institutional investors may view this trend as an indirect investment into the AI sector through mining firms. ・Bitcoin miner CleanSpark has secured a credit facility backed by Bitcoin, enabling capital raising without dilutive equity offerings. This establishes Bitcoin's position as a viable collateral asset in mainstream finance. It expands financing options for miners, allowing them to raise capital without selling their holdings, thereby evolving their treasury management strategies. Institutional investors perceive the growth of BTC-collateralized lending as a sign of the digital asset market's maturation and the evolution of financial infrastructure. Overall Summary The Bitcoin market is facing short-term downward pressure from macroeconomic factors (dollar strength, interest rate trends) and options expiries. However, positive developments encouraging institutional participation, such as the accelerated ETP approval process and BlackRock's filing for a yield-generating ETF, are ongoing. The strengthening synergy between AI and blockchain infrastructure, along with the expansion of Bitcoin-collateralized financing, points towards structural market maturation. Advancing regulatory clarity is expected to drive further capital inflows and price appreciation in the medium to long term.

Macroeconomic factors, particularly a rising dollar index (DXY) and receding expectations for interest rate hikes, pose significant downside risks for risk assets, including Bitcoin. A break below $110K increases the risk of a further decline towards $100K, making this level a critical defense line. Profit-taking by long-term holders and signs of market 'exhaustion' may also contribute to short-term price adjustment pressure. Volatility related to options expirations and regulatory developments from the SEC are additional factors requiring close observation.

Over the next 24-48 hours, the retest of the $110,000 level is critical. A break above suggests a resumption of the bullish trend, whereas a break below carries the risk of a decline to $100,000. The direction of the DXY and US long-term interest rates will dictate the short-term trajectory. The outlook for the coming week includes several positive catalysts driving institutional adoption, such as accelerating ETP approvals and BlackRock's application for a yield ETF. Provided that progress is made on regulatory clarity, the mid-to-long-term bullish trend is likely to be sustained.

We view the current short-term macro headwinds and pressure from options expiries as a healthy market correction. The fundamentals driving institutional adoption are exceptionally robust, including BlackRock's yield ETF application, accelerating ETP approvals, integration with AI infrastructure, and the expansion of Bitcoin-collateralized lending. These factors strongly indicate the market's structural maturation and signal significant future demand growth. Consequently, navigating short-term volatility, we anticipate a bullish outlook for the medium to long term, characterized by further capital inflows and price appreciation. The recommended strategy involves dollar-cost averaging (DCA) around $109,000, or entering positions upon a confirmed break above $110,000. Take-profit targets are set at $115K-$117K, with stop-loss levels below $108K or a breach of $100K. It is essential to monitor the $110K/$100K levels and macroeconomic/regulatory developments closely, implementing rigorous risk management throughout. Strong growth awaits.