The slowdown in inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs exerts short-term selling pressure, but should be viewed as a temporary consolidation phase within its growth cycle. Surging institutional demand for Ethereum (ETH) and the evolution of Layer 2 scaling technologies provide strong momentum supporting the overall health of the market. Progress on tax legislation in the U.S. and the development of Euro-pegged stablecoins in Europe significantly bolster the reliability of market infrastructure, establishing a foundation for long-term expansion. Consequently, the current market bias is assessed as neutral to slightly bullish, solidifying the long-term upward trend.

Fundamental Analysis * Slowing Inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs According to Article 6, a 54% week-on-week decrease in net weekly inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs suggests a slowdown in institutional demand, potentially suppressing short-term upward pressure on BTC price. The prevalence of taker sell volume in on-chain data, along with risk-averse behavior from retail investors, are also contributing factors to market weakness. Institutions may refrain from new investments, wary of increased market volatility and deteriorating sentiment, raising the risk of a BTC price correction. However, cumulative holdings across the ETF market are trending upwards, necessitating careful observation to determine whether this slowdown is temporary or indicative of a broader demand deceleration. In the long term, the maturation of the ETF market could foster greater BTC price stability and sustained institutional inflows, but the current slowdown may weigh on upward price momentum in the near term. * Macroeconomic Correlation and BTC's Lag: Factor Analysis Article 13 analyzes BTC's lagging performance in reaching new highs compared to gold and equity markets, pointing to US interest rate trends and liquidity patterns as key factors. Historically, institutional capital tends to flow into equities and gold first during the initial stages of Federal Reserve rate cuts, before rotating into cryptocurrencies. Currently, the offshoring of stablecoin reserves and risk-averse trader behavior appear to be delaying inflows into BTC. Assuming the continuation of a 'lag, then leap' pattern, BTC's price is likely in a correction phase until macroeconomic stabilization and broader capital rotation into the crypto market are observed. It is inferred that institutional investors are closely monitoring the progression of this macroeconomic cycle to time their capital deployment. * Impact of US Tax Legislation Discussions on the Market According to Article 25, the US Senate Finance Committee is scheduled to discuss cryptocurrency taxation. Tax clarification is expected to build a foundation for institutional investors to reduce compliance risks and invest in BTC with greater confidence. Specifically, resolving the 'double taxation' issue for miners and staking rewards could potentially encourage investment in the BTC mining and staking ecosystems, enhancing network sustainability and indirectly contributing to BTC price stabilization and growth. Clarifying current taxation rules, under which the IRS views cryptocurrency as 'property', could reduce market uncertainty and act as a catalyst for increased participation from both institutional and retail investors. * Significance of Euro Stablecoin Development in Europe As reported in Articles 14/3, the development of MiCA-compliant Euro stablecoins by major European banks signifies the proliferation of fiat-collateralized stablecoins and expanding involvement of traditional financial institutions with blockchain technology. This enhances the overall credibility of the cryptocurrency market and fosters competition with USD-denominated stablecoins. The increased adoption of stablecoins within the Eurozone can lead to more efficient and lower-cost cross-border payments, supporting the development of the broader crypto ecosystem. Indirectly, this could boost overall market liquidity, making digital assets more accessible to institutional investors and potentially positively impacting inflows into BTC. * Surging Institutional Demand for ETH According to Article 22, Ethereum's exchange balances hitting a nine-year low strongly suggests significant migration of ETH by institutional investors into cold storage, staking, and DeFi. This indicates tightening supply and upward price pressure on ETH, reflecting long-term confidence in the ETH ecosystem. As the market's primary driver after BTC, strong institutional demand for ETH can boost overall market sentiment and increase interest in the broader altcoin market. The rise in ETH's value may indirectly exert a positive influence on BTC prices, potentially stimulating overall market inflows. * Advancements in Ethereum's L2 Scaling Technology The enhancement of Ethereum's L2 scaling via PeerDAS technology, mentioned by Vitalik Buterin in Article 20, significantly improves the network's functionality and competitiveness. Reduced transaction costs and improved processing speeds are expected to attract more users and applications to the ETH platform, accelerating the growth of the entire ecosystem. This enhances ETH's long-term value proposition and fosters expectations for technological innovation across the market. The development of the ETH ecosystem contributes to the growth of the overall cryptocurrency market and may indirectly benefit BTC prices. * Price Predictions and Market Sentiment for Major Cryptocurrencies Article 30 presents price forecasts for major cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and XRP, indicating short-term market participant sentiment and technical analysis trends. BTC faces selling pressure around $117,500, while the $107,000 support line is considered crucial. ETH is similarly focused on defending its support levels. These predictions reflect investor views on short-term market direction and serve as references for understanding overall market liquidity and capital flows. Altcoin movements also serve as indicators of overall market risk tolerance. * Community Division Over Bitcoin Core Upgrade According to Article 36, the conflict among developers regarding the removal of the OP_RETURN cap in Bitcoin Core v30 highlights fundamental ideological differences concerning Bitcoin's future functionality, neutrality, and the intended uses of the blockchain. While this upgrade could enable expanded use for data storage, concerns exist about increasing risks of spam and misuse. Divisions within the community and growing support for alternative clients could potentially impact the stability and future development trajectory of the BTC network. Institutional investors are likely to evaluate the impact of these technical and ideological divisions on BTC's long-term value and network robustness when making investment decisions. Overall Summary Despite slowing institutional inflows into ETFs and macroeconomic uncertainties, the market is showing resilience, buoyed by technological advancements and increased institutional demand for ETH. Progress in US tax discussions and the development of Euro stablecoins in Europe are factors promoting market confidence and infrastructure development. Conversely, the community split over Bitcoin Core upgrades introduces uncertainty regarding BTC's long-term direction, requiring market participants to comprehensively evaluate these factors and exercise caution in their investment decisions.

Downside risks include a prolonged slowdown in Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, macroeconomic uncertainties, and potential community division over the Bitcoin Core v30 upgrade. A key support level, as indicated in article 30, is $107,000. Maintaining this level will be the primary focus. Specifically, the potential impact of divergences in the Bitcoin Core development philosophy on the network's stability and future prospects is a factor that warrants close monitoring.

In the next 24-48 hours, attention will be focused on the recovery of ETF flows and the release of macroeconomic indicators. Over the medium term (the next week), we anticipate that strong institutional demand for ETH and progress in U.S. tax discussions will provide underlying support for the market, shaping a modest upward trend. Key catalysts to watch include developments regarding cryptocurrency tax policy within the U.S. Senate Finance Committee and a rebound in weekly net inflows into ETFs.

While the current Bitcoin market faces short-term headwinds due to slowing inflows into spot ETFs, this should be viewed as a temporary correction within its growth phase. Strong fundamentals, including a surge in institutional demand for ETH and advancements in L2 scaling technologies, coupled with progress in infrastructure development such as tax clarity in the US and the emergence of Euro-stablecoins in Europe, underpin the sustained growth of the overall market. These factors represent powerful drivers likely to propel BTC prices higher in the long term. Consequently, the market bias remains decidedly bullish, and we consider this correction phase an excellent accumulation opportunity for further upside. Our recommended investment strategy involves buying on dips around the $107,000 support level. We advise building positions in this range, aiming to scale into further positions between $110,000 and $115,000. The short-term take-profit target is set at $120,000, with a mid-term target exceeding $130,000. Should Bitcoin decisively break below the $105,000 support, it would be prudent to reduce exposure temporarily and reassess market dynamics. This week, key focus should be placed on weekly ETF flow trends and the progress of US tax discussions. Specifically, the ability to decisively break past the $117,500 resistance level will serve as a critical signal for the transition into the next major uptrend. From a risk management perspective, constant vigilance is required regarding uncertainties stemming from potential divisions within the Bitcoin Core community and unexpected macroeconomic shifts. Movements in the DXY (Dollar Index) also remain important monitoring points for understanding capital flows. The market is perpetually evolving, requiring us investors to adapt with flexibility. This current consolidation phase presents a valuable opportunity to position for the next major market wave through a calm and strategic approach. With solid analysis and disciplined execution, we are committed to strongly supporting you in achieving your investment objectives.