The successful launch of Bitcoin ETFs for institutional investors, increased regulatory clarity in the US, and expanding global adoption are creating powerful tailwinds for the Bitcoin market. These factors are outweighing technical indicators that signal short-term volatility, reinforcing the market's maturation and establishing a long-term bull trend. Therefore, the market bias is decidedly bullish.

・BlackRock ETF Success and Institutional Market Penetration BlackRock's Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs generating $260 million in annual revenue demonstrate crypto assets as a profitable asset class for institutional investors. This is likely to spur further development and adoption of similar products by traditional financial institutions, anticipating continued capital inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum. Consequently, this is expected to enhance liquidity and price stability for these major crypto assets, providing a foundation to support long-term upward price trends. This institutional participation enhances overall market maturity, signaling the establishment of crypto assets as a significant component within traditional investment portfolios. ・Bitcoin Volatility Forecast and Market Cycle Positioning Bitcoin's weekly Bollinger Bands reaching historically tight levels suggest the potential for imminent sharp price movements (increased volatility). The analysis indicating the market cycle is in its 'late phase' highlights a situation where profit-taking pressure is rising concurrently with continued entry of new investors, increasing the risk of price bifurcation and short-term corrections. While hints of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could benefit risk assets broadly, uncertainties remain dependent on inflation and labor market trends, potentially acting as price drivers. These factors urge market participants to exercise caution regarding short-term price fluctuations while identifying the long-term growth trend. ・US Regulatory Clarity and Market Structure Reform The progress on market structure bills, the SEC's consideration of 'innovation exemptions', and stablecoin legislation (like the GENIUS Act) are reducing regulatory uncertainty in the US crypto asset market, significantly lowering barriers to entry for institutional investors. This regulatory clarity facilitates easier management of compliance costs, creating an environment where more traditional financial institutions can more readily issue and manage Bitcoin ETFs, stablecoins, and other digital asset-related products. Consequently, improved market transparency and credibility, coupled with fostered innovation, are expected to support the overall healthy growth and long-term expansion of the market. ・Stablecoin Expansion as Payment Infrastructure and Regulation The attention on stablecoins as an alternative payment method to credit cards and the CFTC's consideration of their use as collateral in derivatives markets indicate that cryptocurrencies are deepening their integration with the real economy and establishing their position as payment infrastructure. This enhances the utility of crypto assets, strengthens their function as a bridge to fiat currencies, and serves as a source of liquidity for the digital asset market as a whole. The proliferation of major stablecoins like USDT and USDC, supported by regulatory backing, is a key factor deepening their integration into the traditional financial system and supporting the expansion of the overall market. ・Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Progress The rising practical utilization of cryptocurrencies in emerging markets for purposes such as inflation hedging and remittances, alongside regulatory easing in Japan, are factual drivers promoting broader crypto adoption, signaling market diversification and the presence of fundamental growth drivers. This expansion in adoption from these regions generates sustainable demand distinct from speculative activity, thereby strengthening the overall market's resilience. Global proliferation fosters market expansion and maturity, indicating that cryptocurrencies are reaching a wider user base. ・Ethereum Ecosystem Evolution and AI Integration Potential The growing institutional adoption of Ethereum and the potential for integration with AI agents are strengthening Ethereum's role as a smart contract platform, heightening expectations for the creation of new use cases. Should AI agents begin conducting economic activities on the blockchain, demand for the Ethereum platform could surge significantly. This would likely drive investment not only in Ether's price but also across the entire ecosystem, spearheading market innovation. ・XRP Price Trends and Market Impact The analysis of XRP's price movements, based on technical indicators and on-chain data (including whale activity), suggesting potential for a breakout, is noteworthy information for market participants. As a major altcoin, XRP's trajectory, influenced by its specific legal risks and other factors, has the potential to impact overall market sentiment, with its price fluctuations attracting significant investor interest. Overall Summary Factors such as expanded institutional participation, regulatory clarity in the US, and the establishment of stablecoins as payment infrastructure are boosting the maturity and credibility of the cryptocurrency market. While technical indicators like contracting Bollinger Bands and the market cycle's 'late phase' suggest potential short-term volatility, the progress in global adoption and the expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem are forming a robust foundation supporting mid-to-long-term market growth. These trends indicate a potential pathway for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market towards a more stable growth trajectory.

Short-term risk involves potential volatility expansion due to the contraction of the Bollinger Bands. The 'Fear' sentiment on the Fear & Greed Index signals caution regarding short-term declines, presenting a buying opportunity. Support levels are identified at $111,658, followed by $110,000; however, fundamentals mitigate these risks, making dips opportune buying moments.

Over the next 24-48 hours, Bitcoin is expected to break out of its current range, driven by fundamental support. In the medium term (weekly outlook), sustained ETF inflows and increasing regulatory clarity should push prices higher, encouraging a move towards new all-time highs. Potential catalysts include continued inflows into ETFs, significant corporate announcements, and concrete progress on Ethereum's AI integrations.

Overall, the Bitcoin market is in a strong bullish trend. Fundamentals such as the successful launch of institutional ETFs, regulatory clarity in the US, and the integration of stablecoins into payment infrastructure have significantly enhanced market credibility and liquidity. Short-term volatility presents buying opportunities, and pullbacks near the current price of $113,575 are ideal moments to build long positions. Our short-term target is to break above $117,851, with the medium-term objective being the achievement of new all-time highs. It is crucial to set stop-loss levels below $110,000 to limit risk. This week, focus on the sustained net inflows into ETFs and potential shifts in correlation with the S&P 500, monitoring whether net flows turn positive. Pay attention to macroeconomic indicators as well; managing your portfolio with reference to gold prices and the DXY (US Dollar Index) is key to capitalizing on this bull run. Approach the market with conviction for successful investments.