Bitcoin is currently demonstrating resilience, trading steadily near the $112,000 level. This stability is underpinned by robust demand from U.S. retail investors and sustained institutional inflows into ETFs. On the other hand, the risk of a price correction due to short-term deleveraging persists, with key support levels like $107,000 being tested. However, this pullback can be interpreted as a healthy process, mitigating potential market overheating. Furthermore, long-term positive fundamentals, such as increased regulatory collaboration and the anticipated opening of cryptocurrency investments to the retirement pension market, are enhancing market credibility and strongly suggesting potential for sustainable growth. Overall, the market bias is assessed as bullish.

・Bitcoin price remains resilient around $112,000, supported by US retail demand and ETF inflows. Bitcoin is likely to maintain its resilience near the $112,000 level, underpinned by strong buying demand from US retail investors and sustained inflows into ETFs by institutional players. Positive movements in the Coinbase Premium Index suggest robust domestic demand within the US, contributing to market stabilization. Additionally, increased Bitcoin acquisitions by corporations such as MicroStrategy indicate continued institutional interest, aiding price consolidation. ・Bitcoin faces short-term price correction risks, with the $107,000 support level in focus. Bitcoin has dipped below $111,500, testing key demand zones. While price corrections stemming from short-term deleveraging are possible, the overall market structure remains largely constructive. Focus will be on support levels at $107,000 and $100,000. Although September has historically shown weakness, this period could be viewed as a healthy correction in preparation for October, potentially setting the stage for a subsequent upward trend. ・Large-scale liquidation events ease market overheating and amplify short-term volatility. The liquidation of $180 million in leveraged positions may serve as a final "washout" to cool market exuberance, thereby increasing short-term volatility. Leverage, particularly noted as excessive in altcoins, temporarily weakened overall market sentiment. However, this cleansing of excess leverage could potentially support a more sustainable upward trend moving forward. ・Expanding corporate Bitcoin holdings strengthen market credibility and signal industry consolidation. The acquisition of Semler Scientific by Strive signifies an increase in corporate Bitcoin reserves and an accelerating trend of adopting cryptocurrencies as treasury assets. This reinforces Bitcoin's position as "digital gold" and bolsters institutional confidence in the market. It also signals that companies with long-term strategies are emerging as leaders amid ongoing industry consolidation. ・Enhanced US-UK regulatory cooperation reduces market uncertainty and improves long-term reliability. The establishment of a joint US-UK digital asset regulatory cooperation task force is expected to lower market uncertainty and increase expectations for a clearer regulatory framework. This initiative is a key factor likely to encourage institutional participation and foster the long-term, healthy growth of the cryptocurrency market. It serves as a significant indicator of the global direction for digital asset regulation. ・Anticipation of cryptocurrency investment access in retirement markets acts as a catalyst for potential large-scale capital inflows. The ongoing progress towards permitting cryptocurrency investments within US 401(k) plans points to potential substantial capital inflows from the multi-trillion dollar retirement market. This could accelerate inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and solidify cryptocurrencies as a viable long-term investment strategy. The entry of institutional investors, including pension funds, is poised to significantly enhance market liquidity and credibility. ・Progress in RWA tokenization and stablecoin adoption deepen integration with traditional finance. The integration of Ripple's stablecoins as an off-ramp for tokenized funds by major asset managers like BlackRock and VanEck highlights advancements in Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization and an expansion of stablecoin use cases. This signals deepening collaboration between blockchain technology and traditional finance, contributing to the enhanced reliability of the overall crypto ecosystem. ・Stablecoins entering the payment market improve blockchain utility and drive capital inflows. Stablecoins demonstrating advantages in fees and transaction speed compared to credit card payments, as they increasingly compete in the US payment market, are expanding the use cases for blockchain technology. This encourages broader user adoption into the crypto ecosystem. The transformation of payment infrastructure enhances the practical utility of cryptocurrencies, thereby stimulating further capital inflows into the market. Overall Summary The current Bitcoin market exhibits resilience, driven by US retail demand and institutional inflows into ETFs, while simultaneously navigating risks associated with short-term deleveraging. Positive developments, including the potential opening of US retirement markets to crypto investments and strengthened US-UK regulatory cooperation, are poised to bolster the market's long-term reliability and growth prospects. Furthermore, the expanding use cases and increasing penetration of stablecoins into the payment sector suggest enhanced utility for blockchain technology and potential for new capital inflows, indicating market maturation and promising sustained growth.

The primary downside risks for the current Bitcoin market include persistent outflows from ETFs and the potential breach of the key support level at $107,000. A confluence of these factors could lead to a temporary deterioration in market sentiment. Furthermore, the $100,000 psychological level serves as a crucial support line; a decisive break below which carries the risk of triggering further short-term consolidation. Additionally, the scenario where the process of washing out market froth takes longer than anticipated should also be considered. Factors to monitor include September historically being a weaker month, coupled with persistent global macroeconomic uncertainties. However, from a long-term perspective, these risks could potentially be viewed positively as a period of healthy deleveraging and preparation for a more robust upward trend.

Over the next 24-48 hours, Bitcoin is expected to continue trading within a range around the $112,000 mark. A rebound towards $115,000 is plausible, contingent upon stabilization in ETF outflows or renewed buying support from U.S. retail investors. This period will be crucial in determining the short-term direction. In the medium term (one week), the scenario anticipates a gradual rebuilding of the uptrend, targeting the previous all-time high range of $115,000-$118,000, provided the $107,000 support level holds. However, a break below $107,000 could lead to a correction towards $100,000, which might present a long-term buying opportunity. Key catalysts to watch include the resumption of inflows into ETFs, tangible progress on enhanced regulatory cooperation between the U.S. and the U.K., and legislative developments aimed at opening cryptocurrency investments to pension funds. Positive news on these fronts could significantly improve market sentiment and act as strong drivers for price appreciation.

In conclusion, while the Bitcoin market is currently navigating a short-term correction phase, its underlying fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. Sustained buying from U.S. retail investors, robust inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and growing corporate Bitcoin holdings are further solidifying its status as 'digital gold'. Enhanced regulatory cooperation between the U.S. and UK, coupled with the anticipation of potential cryptocurrency allocations within 401(k) retirement plans, is expected to mitigate market uncertainty and promise potential inflows of trillions of dollars. Consequently, the Bitcoin market outlook remains decidedly bullish. Investors are advised to accumulate positions around the $107,000 support level. On a confirmed breakout above the $117,851 peak, consider expanding your portfolio, anticipating further upward momentum. Should the price dip below $107,000, the $100,000 mark serves as another potential accumulation opportunity. Strict adherence to stop-loss orders below $107,000 is paramount for effective risk management. This week, maintaining the $107,000 level and achieving a breakout above $117,851 are the critical factors. This market presents an exceptional opportunity for long-term wealth building; approach it with confidence.