Bitcoin's pullback despite the Fed's interest rate cut suggests market expectations ran ahead and raises concerns about overheating. However, continued substantial inflows into ETFs demonstrate robust structural demand from institutional investors, supporting underlying market resilience. Although regulatory issues, privacy concerns, and project-specific risks remain challenges, overcoming them is expected to foster further market maturation. Overall, the market bias is rated 'neutral', while favoring a long-term bullish scenario.

・Market Pullback Post-Fed Rate Cut Suggests Cycle End The Federal Reserve's announcement of an interest rate cut is typically viewed as a positive catalyst, aiming to inject liquidity into the market and encourage investment in risk assets. However, the week of September 21, 2025, saw Bitcoin's price decline by 4%, leading to the liquidation of $1.6 billion in long positions, despite the rate cut. This suggests the market may have already priced in the reduction, or that concerns regarding a "cycle end" and market "overheating" are taking precedence. On-chain metrics and historical pattern analysis have revealed multiple bearish signals, indicating potential risks of further corrections in the short term. Institutional investors need to monitor the divergence between macroeconomic event expectations and actual market reactions. Adjustments to portfolio positions should be considered based on a combination of factors, including future Fed guidance and inflation rates. Notably, the market weakness observed towards the end of September could dampen expectations for an "Uptober" rally, necessitating a cautious approach. ・Sustained Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs/ETPs and Record AUM Update During the week of September 21, 2025, net inflows into digital asset funds, particularly ETFs/ETPs, reached $1.9 billion. This marks four consecutive weeks of inflows and a new record high for Assets Under Management (AUM). Bitcoin-related funds accounted for $977 million of these inflows, demonstrating underlying structural strength in the market. This serves as evidence of continuous institutional allocation towards Bitcoin, driven by the enhanced accessibility and regulatory convenience offered through ETFs. Institutions perceive this sustained inflow as a sign of the Bitcoin market's maturation and the expanding recognition of digital assets as a long-term investment. However, given the concurrent market weakness following the Fed rate cut, the sustainability of these inflows requires attention. Overall, ETF inflows indicate robust structural demand for Bitcoin and are considered a significant factor for mid-to-long-term price support. ・Institutional Bitcoin Purchasing Trends: Slowdown at MicroStrategy, Aggression from Metaplanet MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, purchased an additional $99.7 million worth of Bitcoin in the week ending September 21, although its monthly purchasing pace has shown a decelerating trend compared to the previous month. Conversely, Japan's Metaplanet acquired 5,419 BTC (approximately $63.3 million) during the same week at an average price of $117,000, positioning itself as the fifth-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally. The slowdown in MicroStrategy's purchase pace may indicate reduced buying demand in the market or a strategic wait for more favorable entry points. Metaplanet's aggressive accumulation symbolizes the diversification of corporate Bitcoin strategies. However, the fact that its stock price has declined relative to its purchase price highlights the risks associated with market value fluctuations and the challenges in reflecting these in stock performance. While institutional investors view the shift in corporate Bitcoin strategies as a move towards long-term asset recognition, they must carefully evaluate the financial health and risk management capabilities of individual companies concerning market volatility. ・Blockchain's Privacy-Compliance Gap Remains a Barrier to Institutional Entry The "compliance gap" between the inherent transparency of blockchain and modern regulatory requirements such as GDPR and HIPAA—mandating privacy and selective disclosure—poses a fundamental barrier to the widespread adoption of blockchain technology by institutional investors. The difficulty in altering or deleting data recorded on a blockchain clashes with the need for selective data disclosure to specific parties, conflicting with blockchain's core design principles. Despite regulatory advancements, such as the withdrawal of SEC lawsuits and the passage of the GENIUS Act, institutional investors are likely to withhold significant capital investment until the foundational infrastructure can meet the stringent legal and operational standards required across various sectors. Institutions are awaiting advancements in privacy-enhancing technologies like zero-knowledge proofs, recognizing that parallel progress in technological innovation and regulatory adaptation is essential for blockchain to function as next-generation financial and data infrastructure. ・OKX's DEX Perpetual Launch Postponement: Regulatory Uncertainty Hinders Market Entry The fact that major cryptocurrency exchange OKX has postponed the launch of its decentralized perpetual trading platform due to regulatory concerns highlights the growth potential of the on-chain derivatives market while underscoring regulatory uncertainty as a significant impediment to industry development. Enforcement actions, such as the CFTC's move against Deridex, and the ambiguous stance of regulators towards DeFi products are key reasons for institutional hesitation. As institutions prioritize legal and regulatory compliance, the cautious approach taken by major exchanges like OKX reflects a lack of market transparency and predictability. While discussions regarding jurisdiction allocation between the SEC and CFTC are ongoing in the US, the scope of their application to DeFi products remains unclear. This situation underscores the industry's need to balance market maturation with heightened regulatory oversight, compelling institutions to closely monitor regulatory developments. ・Hyperliquid (HYPE) Large Unlock Concerns and Arthur Hayes's Moves Signal Project Risks BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes's family office, Maelstrom, has warned that the substantial unlocks of Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens could act as a "sword of Damocles" hanging over the token's price. Approximately $500 million worth of tokens are expected to enter the market monthly during a 24-month vesting period beginning November 29. Concerns about a supply overhang persist, potentially overwhelming the current buyback program. Reports of Hayes himself engaging in HYPE token sales and profit-taking exemplify how the actions of prominent investors can influence market sentiment, suggesting other investors might follow suit. For institutional investors, this highlights the critical importance of project-specific risk management, requiring thorough analysis of token distribution, vesting schedules, market liquidity, and the competitive landscape. The HYPE token unlock should be closely monitored by market participants as a factor heightening short-term price volatility risk. Overall Summary As of the week of September 21, 2025, the cryptocurrency market exhibits heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic events, with a notable price decline following the Fed's rate cut, alongside growing apprehension about a potential cycle end. Conversely, sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETFs/ETPs and ongoing institutional adoption strategies indicate underlying structural strength and increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a long-term asset. Key bottlenecks persist, including regulatory uncertainty, blockchain compliance gaps, and project-specific risks like the Hyperliquid unlock concerns, all of which significantly influence institutional participation. Future market dynamics are expected to be shaped by macroeconomic trends, regulatory stances, and advancements in technological innovation.

The market's pullback following the Fed's rate cut and concerns about the "end of cycle" are increasing short-term downside risk. Weakness, particularly late in September, could dampen expectations for an October rally. Key support lies at the recent low of $112,176. A break below this level could lead to a correction towards the psychological threshold near $100,000, which should be considered. Key risks involve project-specific issues, including OKX's postponement of its DEX launch, regulatory uncertainties such as blockchain privacy and compliance gaps, and concerns over a large unlock event for Hyperliquid (HYPE).

In the short term (24-48 hours), the market may show tentative signs of a rebound, indicated by oversold conditions on the RSI. Over the medium term (1 week), Bitcoin is likely to target a recovery towards the $115,000 mark, contingent upon continued inflows into ETFs. Key catalysts to watch moving forward include the upcoming US CPI release and the SEC and CFTC clarifying their regulatory stance on DeFi products, events poised to significantly influence market direction.

The short-term market pullback following the Fed's interest rate cut should be interpreted as a correction driven by anticipation, rather than a cause for pessimism. Phenomenal inflows into ETFs coupled with structural demand from institutional investors underpin Bitcoin's unwavering long-term strength. A rebound from the oversold conditions indicated by the RSI is expected, and reclaiming the $115,000 level appears to be a matter of time. While regulatory hurdles and project-specific risks are present, these are challenges inherent to the market's maturation process that will be surmounted. As a strategy for the beginning of the week, we recommend tactical buying on dips around the $112,176 level. Should the price decisively break above $117,851, it would act as a strong buy signal, likely resuming the uptrend targeting $120,000. Effective risk management dictates the strict execution of stop-loss orders if the price breaks below $112,176. Entry within this price range represents a prime opportunity for investors focused on the long term. Let us leverage market volatility and move forward with confidence.