The current Bitcoin market is underpinned by strong fundamentals: expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, accelerating institutional adoption, and increasing regulatory clarity. These factors reinforce our conviction that Bitcoin is solidifying its position as a major asset class within traditional financial markets. Overall, the market exhibits a clear bullish bias, with potential for further upside.

・Fed Rate Cuts, Market Pricing, and Volatility A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September 2025 is generally considered a tailwind for Bitcoin (BTC), a typical risk asset. However, the extent to which the market has priced in this policy shift, along with expectations regarding the pace of future rate cuts, will be key drivers of short-term price volatility. Analysis from economists suggests that the market may be underestimating the Fed's aggressive stance on rate cuts. This potentially indicates a risk of a 'surprise effect,' triggering unexpected price movements, such as sharp surges or declines. Michael Saylor posits that while the reduction in volatility accompanying increased institutional investor participation might seem 'boring' to some short-term traders, it lays the groundwork for market maturation, long-term stabilization, and the further integration of larger institutional players. Bitcoin is already facing significant resistance levels, and the confluence of major options expiration events is likely to exacerbate short-term price fluctuations. ・Expanding Institutional Adoption and Market Infrastructure The announcement by Helius Medical Technologies of a $500 million corporate treasury initiative allocating primary reserves to Solana (SOL), alongside the establishment of a digital asset investment fund by Standard Chartered's venture arm, clearly indicates an acceleration in both the quality and quantity of institutional engagement within the cryptocurrency market. These moves are accelerating the trend of corporations incorporating digital assets into their portfolios, thereby enhancing market credibility. Furthermore, the SEC's issuance of criteria to expedite the review of spot cryptocurrency ETFs and the approval of the first multi-asset ETP signify progress in creating a more accessible environment for institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin, anticipating new inflows via ETFs. The IPO filing by major custodian BitGo also serves as an indicator of rising institutional demand for crypto infrastructure and the market's growing maturity. Enhanced secure custody and management solutions for digital assets like Bitcoin further lower the barrier to entry for institutional investors. ・Regulatory Clarity and Market Impact The initiation of public comment on the 'GENIUS Act,' a proposed stablecoin regulation bill from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, is crucial for enhancing regulatory transparency and predictability. This allows market participants, particularly institutional investors, to more accurately assess compliance risks and formulate investment strategies more effectively. The CFTC's appointment of experts in the digital asset market to a subcommittee suggests regulators are deepening engagement with the industry to build an effective regulatory framework, thereby fostering the market's healthy development. These regulatory advancements enhance the overall credibility of the cryptocurrency market and are strong factors supporting long-term price appreciation by creating an environment where institutional investors can confidently allocate capital to Bitcoin. ・Promoting Crypto Adoption and Technological Advancements Coinbase's plan to develop a 'super app' offering traditional financial services like payments, credit, and rewards powered by cryptocurrency aims to drive mainstream adoption and significantly improve accessibility to Bitcoin. This is expected to attract a larger base of new customers into the cryptocurrency ecosystem. The pragmatic approach of integrating Web3 with existing Web2 infrastructure, as highlighted in Article 1, supports the sustainable growth of the overall ecosystem. Moreover, technological advancements like Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) have the potential to enhance blockchain security and scalability, broadening the application scope for Bitcoin and blockchain technology in the future. For instance, TEEs enable confidential smart contract execution and off-chain computations, facilitating the deployment of more complex and demanding applications. ・Fund Distribution from the FTX Bankruptcy Estate The fact that the FTX bankruptcy estate is distributing approximately $1.6 billion to creditors suggests a potential injection of liquidity into the market. If a portion of these distributed funds is reinvested into the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin, it could act as short-term buying pressure. Conversely, if the majority of creditors choose to cash out these funds, it could result in short-term selling pressure. Market participants are closely monitoring the deployment of these funds, which should be considered a potential short-term volatility factor for Bitcoin's price. While the impact might be limited compared to previous distributions, the potential influence on market sentiment remains. ・Overall Summary The Fed's potential rate cuts and the market's reaction, increased institutional adoption of the crypto market, regulatory clarity, and advancements in technological innovation and adoption strategies are acting as multiple positive catalysts for Bitcoin's price. These factors are accelerating the trend of cryptocurrencies establishing themselves as an entrenched asset class within traditional financial markets, likely supporting a long-term upward price trend. However, potential short-term market overheating or events like options expirations cannot be ruled out as triggers for temporary price corrections.

Potential downside risks include approaching current resistance levels and temporary volatility spikes associated with options expiration events. Unforeseen price movements could also occur if the market underestimates Fed rate cuts. However, continued inflows from ETFs and strong fundamentals are expected to provide robust support at lower price levels.

For the next 24-48 hours, expect continued testing of the current resistance level, followed by a search for directional clarity. Within the week, supported by institutional demand and a positive macro environment, a breakout above resistance is anticipated, likely initiating a further uptrend. Key catalysts to watch include announcements on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, key economic indicators, and news regarding new institutional inflows.

Bitcoin's market today is establishing a firm bullish trend, underpinned by strong fundamentals including expectations of Fed rate cuts, accelerating institutional adoption, and increasing regulatory clarity. While the current price around $115,797 suggests a short-term consolidation phase, the sustained inflows via ETFs (daily average of $222.6 million, cumulative $57.7 billion) and its decoupling from the S&P 500 (correlation of -25%) underscore Bitcoin's evolution into a mature, standalone store of value. Market sentiment remains neutral (Fear & Greed Index at 48), but the high Bitcoin dominance (55.8%) clearly demonstrates its leadership in driving the market. Our recommended investment strategy involves buying on temporary dips towards the $114,000-$115,000 support level, or entering long positions after a confirmed break above $118,000. Profit targets are set at $120,000 for the short term and $125,000+ for the mid-term. Implement stop-loss orders below $110,000 to manage risk effectively. The key price level to watch this week is the resistance at $118,000; breaking through this level is expected to lead to further price appreciation. From a risk management perspective, continuous monitoring of the Fed's actions, the Dollar Index (DXY at 101.5), and ETF inflow trends is crucial. Bitcoin pioneers the future of digital assets, charting a course ripe with growth potential. By capitalizing on this opportunity with a prudent yet decisive investment strategy, you can expect steady asset appreciation.