The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are proving to be a significant tailwind for Bitcoin, as institutional investors reach record levels of supply accumulation. Sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, coupled with bullish price predictions, are fueling positive market sentiment. Overall, the market clearly displays a bullish bias.

France goes rogue, Bitcoin pumps on Fed rate cut: Global Express The Federal Reserve's (Fed) 0.25% interest rate cut acted as a typical macroeconomic catalyst, heightening expectations for monetary easing and driving capital inflows into risk assets, including Bitcoin. Historically, Fed rate cut cycles have positively impacted equity and crypto markets by increasing liquidity supply. Market participants are closely monitoring whether this reduction signifies a long-term shift in monetary policy to address economic slowdown concerns, rather than merely a temporary measure. However, as analysts point out, if this rate cut was already priced in, there is a risk of a short-term "sell the news" event, potentially leading to a temporary price correction. The impact could be amplified if market expectations were overly high. Economic indicators underlying the Fed's decision, such as sluggish employment data and inflation trends, serve as crucial clues regarding future monetary policy direction. While this news acts as a direct positive catalyst for Bitcoin's price, the French regulator (AMF) expressing concerns regarding the "passporting" regime under the EU's MiCA regulation is also noteworthy. The AMF is concerned that certain EU member states might establish lighter regulations, enabling companies to engage in "regulatory arbitrage" to seek favorable licenses. This raises questions about the uniformity and enforceability of crypto regulations across the EU, potentially creating barriers for institutional investors entering the European market. In the long term, the clarity and consistency of the EU's regulatory framework will significantly influence market confidence and liquidity; thus, such disagreements among regulators represent a critical watchpoint for the healthy development of the overall cryptocurrency market. Furthermore, developments in other countries, such as the freezing of bank accounts in Thailand and Pakistan's market liberalization for cryptocurrencies, suggest that national regulatory stances and financial infrastructure evolution are influencing crypto adoption diversely. The Thai case highlights the risks of government intervention in the financial system and the growing interest in cryptocurrencies as an alternative. Pakistan's move indicates a trend among emerging economies to actively integrate the crypto ecosystem to foster economic growth. From an institutional investor perspective, the Fed's rate cut serves as an incentive to increase risk asset allocation within portfolios. However, considering the potential for short-term corrections if the market has already priced in the cut, along with regulatory uncertainties within the EU, a cautious approach is warranted. Balancing expectations of an improved macroeconomic environment with regulatory risks will be key for investment decisions during this phase. Bitcoin illiquid supply hits record 14.3M BTC as big investors accumulate The fact that Bitcoin's "illiquid supply" has reached a record high of 14.3 million BTC indicates a significant shift in Bitcoin's supply structure and an acceleration of strategic accumulation by institutional investors and Long-Term Holders (LTHs). Illiquid supply refers to the total amount of Bitcoin difficult to trade on the market and held for extended periods. An increase in this metric signifies a reduction in circulating liquid supply, which, assuming constant demand, enhances Bitcoin's scarcity and generates upward price pressure. Data from analytics firms like Glassnode suggests that the rise in illiquid supply reflects a strengthening trend among institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals ("whales," "sharks") to hold Bitcoin as a strategic asset for the long term, irrespective of short-term price volatility. Specifically, data showing large holders absorbing approximately 300% of the annual issuance highlights the current scenario where new market supply is rapidly absorbed by a subset of major holders. This suggests it is becoming more challenging for retail investors to trade advantageously, potentially leading to further tightening of liquidity supply. Furthermore, continued outflows from exchanges suggest market participants prioritize self-custody, intending either long-term holding or participation in the DeFi ecosystem. Increased self-custody tends to mitigate the risks of short-term price manipulation or liquidity shocks within the market. Institutional investors focus keenly on Bitcoin's supply structure, particularly holder distribution and long-term holding trends. The growth in illiquid supply solidifies Bitcoin's scarcity and reinforces its function as a store of value, often termed "digital gold." This enhances Bitcoin's appeal within diversification strategies as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation risks. This trend supports Bitcoin's evolution from a purely speculative asset to a more mature asset class, providing strong grounds for a long-term bullish outlook. Bitcoin price $150K target comes as analyst sees weeks to all-time highs The analyst's prediction that Bitcoin's price could reach new all-time highs within weeks and eventually hit $150,000 is critical information shaping market participants' expectations and significantly influencing short-term investment sentiment. Presenting such specific price targets is expected to trigger investor FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and encourage further capital inflows. Supporting this forecast is the golden cross observed in the NVT-GC (Network Value to Transaction Golden Cross) indicator, according to the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. This metric compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its on-chain transaction volume and has a proven track record of accurately predicting past major price rallies. The NVT-GC being in the "neutral" zone and forming a golden cross suggests the market is progressing in a healthy uptrend without signs of overheating. Additionally, on-chain metrics such as the STH MVRV Z-Score (Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score) and STH realized price are utilized to analyze the behavior and profitability status of short-term holders, helping identify market overheating levels and potential reversal points. These indicators suggesting a "neutral" state imply room for further upside, reinforcing the analyst's bullish outlook. The mention of seasonality, "Uptober," could also create psychological expectations among market participants, potentially influencing investment behavior. The continued maintenance of futures premiums in the derivatives market also suggests market participants are betting on an upward trend. Institutional investors use expert analysis based on such technical indicators and on-chain data as key references for their investment decisions. Bullish signals derived from historically validated indicators can serve as decisive factors for increasing Bitcoin allocation in portfolios. However, it is crucial to simultaneously assess the risks associated with the prediction proving incorrect and to manage position sizing prudently. Risk management is essential for institutional investors to capture market momentum while avoiding excessive leverage and emotionally driven trading. London Stock Exchange lists new Bitcoin staking ETP The listing of a Bitcoin staking ETP (Exchange Traded Product) on the London Stock Exchange marks a landmark development, indicating that institutional investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin not merely as an asset for capital appreciation but also as a vehicle for yield generation. This ETP, offered by Valour (a subsidiary of DeFi Technologies), provides a specific yield of 1.4% per annum and meets key institutional requirements, including storing Bitcoin in cold storage and ensuring security through Multi-Party Computation (MPC) technology. The ETP's focus on institutional and professional investors suggests market maturity and a prioritization of regulatory compliance. Furthermore, the UK's planned reopening of crypto ETN (Exchange Traded Note) purchases for retail investors on October 8th fuels expectations for the expansion of the crypto ETP market within Europe. Although Bitcoin lacks a native staking mechanism, this ETP indirectly offers yield opportunities, for example, through mechanisms like delegating Bitcoin to the Core Chain. This approach reduces the opportunity cost associated with holding Bitcoin, thereby enhancing its attractiveness for portfolio integration. By utilizing Bitcoin as an income-generating asset, institutional investors aim to boost its investment appeal and encourage long-term holding strategies. Institutional investors are seeking financial products that enable them to earn not only capital gains but also income gains from their Bitcoin holdings. The emergence of such Bitcoin staking ETPs further financializes the Bitcoin market and has the potential to attract capital inflows from a broader investor base. The UK government's regulatory easing measures concerning cryptocurrencies are likely to support the proliferation of these innovative financial products. Grayscale prepares to stake Ether holdings amid shifting SEC stance: Arkham Grayscale's transfer of a substantial amount of ETH (over 40,000 ETH) suggests the company is preparing for ETH staking. This is interpreted as a potential signal that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might permit staking activities within ETFs in the future. Grayscale, being one of the largest ETH ETF sponsors managing over 1.06 million ETH, could introduce significant liquidity and institutional interest to the entire ETH market if it enables ETH staking within its ETFs. The approval of staking functionality within ETH ETFs would shift investment strategies from mere "holding" of ETH to generating returns through its utilization. This move would strengthen the long-term investment incentives for institutional capital allocated to ETH, thereby further boosting demand and contributing to price appreciation. This development could also indirectly impact the Bitcoin ETF market. While current Bitcoin ETFs do not offer staking features, the potential approval of staking for ETH ETFs might intensify discussions regarding the future introduction of similar functionalities for Bitcoin ETFs. Institutional investors continuously evaluate the features and profitability profiles of ETFs, and the availability of staking functions could become a critical factor in their investment decisions. This trend signals that institutional investors are increasingly viewing cryptocurrencies not just as speculative assets but as sophisticated financial instruments. The addition of staking functionality to ETH ETFs not only enhances ETH's attractiveness as an investment but could also indirectly influence the Bitcoin market by expanding opportunities for yield generation through active utilization across the broader crypto space. This fosters market maturity and enables a wider array of investment strategies. Bitcoin has 70% chance of hitting new highs in 2 weeks: Analyst The analyst's prediction that Bitcoin has a 70% chance of reaching new all-time highs within the next two weeks significantly impacts short-term market sentiment among participants. This probability suggests upward market momentum, potentially increasing investor risk tolerance and encouraging further capital inflows. Such a bullish outlook can serve as a strong motivator for position building, particularly for short-term traders and those employing leveraged trading strategies. Supporting this prediction is the analysis of on-chain metrics. The "neutral" state of the STH MVRV Z-Score and STH realized price indicates the market is not overheated and retains room for further upside. Compared to similar indicator states observed in past price cycles, this suggests the current situation might still be in the early stages of an ascent. The sustained net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (totaling $2.8 billion since September 9th) demonstrate consistent demand from institutional investors, acting as a strong support factor for price increases. ETF inflows represent new liquidity entering the market, thereby accelerating the price discovery process. The continued maintenance of futures premiums in the derivatives market also signals market participants betting on Bitcoin's future price appreciation, corroborating bullish sentiment. However, it is noted that "internal liquidity" accumulating around the $113,000-$114,000 levels could potentially trigger temporary price corrections (pullbacks). This represents a risk of increased short-term volatility that institutional investors must consistently consider. While past market behavior has shown tendencies to surge past such liquidity bands, corrections have consistently followed these moves. Institutional investors comprehensively evaluate short-term predictions, supported by diverse data points including on-chain activity, macroeconomic trends, ETF flows, and derivatives market data. The 70% probability is a signal not to be ignored from a risk management perspective, potentially justifying the building or augmenting of positions. However, considering market volatility and the risk of forecast errors, prudent position sizing and robust risk management strategies remain essential. Bitcoin repeats May breakout move as analysis expects $118K showdown The analysis suggesting Bitcoin is replicating its May breakout move, trading above the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), indicates the market is repeating past bullish patterns and demonstrating structural strength. This positively influences investor psychology, potentially triggering further buying interest. Specifically, the pattern's similarity to the rebound phase following May's lows (below $75,000) suggests market consolidation and strong potential for further upward movement. The Fed's 0.25% rate cut, accompanied by record highs in U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, clearly indicates a favorable macroeconomic environment for risk assets broadly, including Bitcoin. Historically, rate-cutting phases boost risk asset valuations through monetary easing, acting as a primary driver for Bitcoin price increases. The analyst's projection of a continued upward trend for risk assets through 2025 provides significant information for institutional investors shaping their medium-to-long-term market outlook. Bitcoin consolidating support around the $117,000 level and targeting the next price discovery area at $118,000 suggests a continuation of the short-to-medium term uptrend. Breaking above this threshold could lead to challenging further psychological resistance levels. Conversely, the observation of liquidity buildup near these price levels signals potential for increased short-term volatility or the possibility of an "Exit Pump" (a short-term rally driven by profit-taking motives), warranting caution from institutional investors. Markets often exhibit heightened volatility at predictable levels to facilitate short-term profit-taking or position adjustments. Institutional investors evaluate a combination of positive macroeconomic factors (rate cuts, stock market rallies) and Bitcoin's inherent technical strengths (replicated VWAP breakouts, support consolidation). Amidst positive overall market sentiment, they assess Bitcoin's potential to lead the advance, anticipating a move towards the short-term target of $118,000. However, vigilance against liquidity risks is necessary, requiring careful analysis of technical chart patterns and order book dynamics when making decisions about building or adjusting positions. Overall Summary The Fed's rate cut and the associated expectation of capital inflows into risk assets provide a strong tailwind for the Bitcoin market. The market exhibits multiple positive signals, including sustained Bitcoin accumulation by institutional investors, supply tightening, and optimistic short-to-medium term price forecasts, fueling expectations for further upside. However, risks associated with market overheating and potential short-term volatility spikes persist, making it crucial for institutional investors to maintain cautious risk management strategies informed by the macroeconomic environment, regulatory trends, and on-chain data.

Short-term downside risks include the lingering "sell the news" effect from the Fed's rate cut and a potential temporary correction within the $113,000-$114,000 liquidity zone. Regulatory uncertainty in the EU is also a factor to monitor closely. A key support level sits around $113,000; breaking below this level warrants caution.

Short-term (24-48 hours): A move towards $118,000 is anticipated, supported by ETF inflows and macro factors. Mid-term (one week): This momentum is expected to persist, increasing the potential for further new highs. Key catalysts to watch include continued ETF inflows and signals of additional monetary easing from the Fed.

The Bitcoin market is being strongly propelled by a confluence of factors: macroeconomic tailwinds from the Federal Reserve's 0.25% interest rate cut, robust institutional accumulation of Bitcoin, and persistent, substantial inflows into ETFs. The record-high levels of illiquid supply underscore Bitcoin's scarcity, further solidifying its role as a store of value, often referred to as 'digital gold'. On-chain indicators suggest a healthy uptrend without signs of overheating. Furthermore, analyst projections anticipating new all-time highs within weeks, and even a potential move towards $150,000, are bolstering the prevailing bullish sentiment. The current market bias is clearly bullish. As a practical investment strategy, a temporary dip towards the $113,000-$114,000 support range presents an excellent opportunity to build or add to existing positions. Entry points for consideration include entering long positions after confirming a bounce within this support zone, or alternatively, after a clear breakout above $117,000. Short-term target prices are set at $118,000, with expectations for further upside movement within the week. From a risk management perspective, maintaining the $113,000 support level is crucial. A breach below this level should prompt a swift reassessment of positions and potentially stop-loss execution, anticipating a possible temporary correction. While vigilance is required regarding regulatory uncertainty in the EU and potential psychological market overheating, the overall outlook for Bitcoin suggests a high probability of continued growth and value appreciation. Institutional investors should approach portfolio optimization with a calm and strategic mindset, maintaining an optimistic outlook on the market while aiming for steady returns.