Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the SEC's streamlined ETF approval process, and the expansion of corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies are strongly driving market sentiment. These positive fundamentals suggest further upside potential for Bitcoin, shifting the overall market outlook from neutral to slightly bullish. Institutional investors should capitalize on these opportunities to optimize their portfolios while implementing prudent risk management.

・Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Monetary Policy Uncertainty Leading up to the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, the market has priced in a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Rate cuts generally act positively on risk assets, particularly Bitcoin, by boosting liquidity and lowering borrowing costs. However, it is highly likely that the market has already priced in this event, and there is a risk of a "sell the news" reaction depending on Chair Powell's forward guidance and inflation outlook during the press conference. Furthermore, political maneuvering surrounding Federal Reserve board appointments (e.g., the appointment of Miran, the issue concerning Cook's dismissal) raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, adding to market uncertainty. Institutional investors must prepare for heightened volatility associated with this macroeconomic event, closely monitor the Fed's policy stance and market reactions, and ensure robust risk management within their portfolios. Analyzing Bitcoin's correlation with gold and its performance during previous rate-cut phases is also crucial for forecasting short-term price movements. ・SEC's Easing of ETF Listing Criteria and Potential for Market Expansion It has been reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) plans to simplify the approval process for crypto-asset exchange-traded products (ETPs) and introduce generalized listing standards as early as October. This could increase the likelihood of new crypto ETFs emerging, particularly those related to stablecoins and tokenization, thereby lowering barriers to entry for institutional investors and enhancing overall market liquidity. The anticipated acceleration of the approval process to within 75 days is also expected to boost market efficiency. However, as noted by Bitwise's CIO, ETF issuance alone does not necessarily guarantee significant inflows; fundamental demand for the underlying assets is paramount. Interest is also growing in altcoin ETFs such as those for XRP and DOGE, which could present opportunities for institutional investors to diversify their product offerings and expand their exposure to the altcoin market. This shift in regulatory stance can be interpreted as a positive signal, promoting market maturation and institutional adoption. ・UK FCA's Regulatory Proposals and Global Regulatory Trends The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has announced new regulatory proposals for crypto firms. The proposals aim to apply existing financial regulations to the crypto sector, seeking to balance innovation with consumer protection. Potential requirements include standards similar to those imposed on traditional financial institutions, covering areas like operational resilience and financial crime prevention, with the application of the "Consumer Duty" also under consideration. Although final rules are expected by 2026, these proposals represent steps toward specifying and clarifying regulations for the crypto market, which is expected to contribute to enhanced market credibility. Indications of strengthened cooperation with the United States are also present, making this a noteworthy development towards global regulatory harmonization. For institutional investors, understanding the regulatory direction in key jurisdictions is crucial for informing their compliance strategies and investment decisions. ・Expansion of Corporate Treasury Strategies and Institutional Demand Metaplanet has announced the establishment of subsidiaries in the United States and Japan, its foray into Bitcoin (BTC) revenue generation and derivatives trading, and the strengthening of its domestic business operations. The company already holds over 20,000 BTC, positioning it as one of the leading corporate entities holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Furthermore, continued weekly inflows of $2.2 billion into U.S.-domiciled spot BTC ETFs indicate that institutional demand for Bitcoin remains robust. These developments suggest companies are evolving their approach, viewing Bitcoin not merely as a reserve asset but as a tool for potential revenue generation and strategic utilization. Metaplanet's example also highlights growing interest in the broader altcoin ecosystem, as institutional investors evaluate both Bitcoin's established position as "digital gold" and the potential investment opportunities within the altcoin market. However, corporate treasury strategies are also subject to risks, including potential dilution from share issuance and the impact of fluctuations in the value of held assets on corporate valuation. ・Bitcoin Price Trends and Technical Analysis Bitcoin recorded its second-highest performance (+8%) in September over the past 13 years, despite it traditionally being considered a weaker month. This is a positive sign, potentially indicating the continuation of the current bull market cycle. Conversely, the price is losing momentum near the $116,000 resistance level, raising concerns that buyers who entered within the past six months might fall below their cost basis. While reduced volatility may indicate market maturation, it also contributes to a sense of short-term stagnation. With October (the start of the fourth quarter) historically being a strong month, the ability to break through the $116,000 resistance level is the key short-term focus. Institutional investors need to formulate investment strategies by referencing technical indicators and seasonal patterns, carefully balancing the risks of short-term price volatility against the potential for a medium-to-long-term upward trend. ・Google's AI Payment Protocol Announcement and Impact on Stablecoins Google has announced an open-source payment protocol for AI applications, which will support transactions using stablecoins. This indicates an accelerating convergence between AI technology and blockchain technology, with a particular focus on stablecoins. This opens up possibilities for AI agents to automatically execute payments or integrate with DeFi protocols, driving expectations for expanded use cases of stablecoins within the AI domain. Major companies such as Salesforce and American Express are collaborating on this initiative, with some anticipating that AI will become a primary adopter of stablecoins. This is significant news for institutional investors, heightening awareness of the future trend of AI-blockchain convergence and enabling assessment of the stablecoin market's growth potential. This technological innovation could have long-term implications for payment systems and financial infrastructure. ・Binance's DOJ Negotiations and Expectations of Regulatory Risk Easing It has been reported that the major cryptocurrency exchange Binance is requesting the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) to remove the compliance monitor appointed as part of its 2023 settlement agreement. If granted, this would alleviate Binance's compliance burden, potentially leading to eased regulatory pressure. This aligns with broader trends potentially favoring deregulation and ongoing efforts by the SEC and CFTC to provide regulatory clarity. As compliance monitors can impose additional costs and operational inefficiencies, their removal could potentially improve Binance's business efficiency and restore its credibility. For institutional investors, shifts in regulatory risks surrounding major exchanges are noteworthy developments, as they can impact overall market sentiment and trading costs. Progress in improving relations with regulatory bodies could lead to a positive market impact. Overall Summary Factors such as expectations of Fed rate cuts and associated market volatility, the SEC's simplification of ETF approval processes, and the actions of regulators worldwide are contributing to deepening institutional engagement in the cryptocurrency market. The ongoing adoption of Bitcoin treasury strategies by corporations and technological innovations, such as the convergence of AI and blockchain, are also expected to contribute to the market's long-term growth and the creation of new use cases. However, risks associated with short-term price volatility and regulatory uncertainty persist, underscoring the need for diligent market analysis and risk management.

The potential for a "sell the news" event surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meetings could act as a catalyst for short-term price adjustments. The key support level is situated near $111,023; a breach of this level may intensify downward pressure. Furthermore, political maneuvering concerning Federal Reserve board appointments, such as the nomination of Miran and the debated dismissal of Cook, heightens uncertainty regarding monetary policy and poses risk factors that could amplify market volatility.

For the next 24-48 hours, the market will primarily react to the FOMC results and Chairman Powell's statements. As rate cuts are largely priced in, hawkish guidance could potentially lead to a short-term pullback. However, in the medium to long term, factors like the SEC streamlining ETF processes and the integration of AI with stablecoins are expected to enhance Bitcoin's value. October is historically a strong month, with breaking the $116,000 level being the next key focus.

In summary, the Bitcoin market is maintaining its upward trend, underpinned by several key positive fundamentals. While expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts serve as a bullish catalyst, these are largely priced in, making commentary from Fed Chair Powell crucial. The SEC's streamlining of the ETF approval process is expected to accelerate institutional adoption, thereby enhancing market liquidity and credibility. Proposed regulations from the UK FCA and Google's AI payment protocols signal market maturation and the creation of new use cases, strengthening the foundation for long-term growth. Furthermore, the expanding adoption of Bitcoin in corporate treasury strategies enhances its perceived value. The current price hovering around $115,607 is testing the $116,000 vicinity, suggesting potential for short-term consolidation. However, the RSI and MACD indicators remain in neutral territory, indicating a lack of overheating. September's strong performance serves as evidence that the bull market cycle's momentum remains intact. October historically presents as a strong month. A break above $116,000 could pave the way toward the $120,000-$130,000 target range. Strategically, it is prudent to build positions from a medium to long-term perspective while factoring in short-term volatility. Accumulating on dips within the $111,000-$114,000 range is a recommended approach. Target profit-taking levels are between $120,000 and $130,000, while a break below the support at $111,023 suggests considering stop-losses or reducing positions. Moving forward, key factors requiring close monitoring include Federal Reserve policy decisions, inflation indicators, and ETF inflow trends. As these significantly influence market dynamics, staying informed and exercising rational judgment are key to successful navigation. Bitcoin, recognized as "digital gold," is positioned to become an indispensable asset within the future financial system. We support you in leveraging this evolutionary wave to grow your assets through well-defined strategies.