Bitcoin is poised to reclaim a $4 trillion market capitalization and target levels exceeding $115,000, driven by strong inflows into spot ETFs and sustained institutional engagement. BlackRock's exploration into ETF tokenization further bolsters the market's long-term potential. Despite some technical indicators exhibiting signs of slowing momentum, robust fundamentals continue to underpin the market, maintaining an overall bullish bias.

・Spot Bitcoin ETF Demand Remains Strong, Pushing Crypto Market Cap Back Above $4 Trillion Continued substantial inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are robustly supporting overall market sentiment, driving the total cryptocurrency market capitalization back above the $4 trillion mark. This serves as clear evidence that institutional investors recognize Bitcoin as a long-term asset class and are integrating it into their portfolios. The inflow of new capital via ETFs is expected to enhance market liquidity, improve price discovery mechanisms, and potentially moderate volatility. Notably, the cryptocurrency market reclaiming this significant milestone could attract broader investor interest and act as a catalyst for further capital inflows. ・Bitcoin Recovers to $115,000; Focus Shifts to Next BTC Price Levels Bitcoin's recovery to $115,000 represents a key technical signal, indicating a short-term rebound from last week's price correction. The ability to breach the resistance zone between $116,000 and $121,000 is crucial for determining the sustainability of a further upward trend. Additionally, record-high open interest (OI) in the options market, with call options significantly outnumbering put options, suggests a degree of bullish sentiment among market participants, providing evidence of heightened expectations for price appreciation. ・BlackRock Explores ETF Tokenization; JPMorgan Points to Industry Shift Reports that BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, is considering the tokenization of ETFs symbolize the growth potential within the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and the accelerating convergence between traditional finance (TradFi) and blockchain technology. Tokenizing ETFs holds the potential to create new liquidity sources and use cases, such as enabling trading outside of traditional market hours or allowing them to be used as collateral in DeFi protocols. This development is expected to bolster the infrastructure for the entire digital asset market, including Bitcoin, and further reduce barriers to entry for institutional investors. JPMorgan's framing of tokenization as a "quantum leap" highlights the significance of this trend. ・Bitcoin 'Sharks' Buy 65,000 BTC in One Week, Key to Demand Recovery The accumulation of 65,000 BTC by "sharks"—large investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC—in a single week suggests the presence of bottom-buying demand supporting prices amidst a market correction. This activity coincides with the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders (STH) starting to turn positive, indicating a potentially healthy recovery cycle within the market. The aggressive buying from large investors can bolster market confidence and foster expectations for continued price appreciation. ・Bitcoin Eyes $115,000 Supported by CPI Data, but Traders Note Potential Downside Divergence The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, aligning with market expectations, helped sustain expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, contributing to Bitcoin's push towards $115,000. However, some traders are highlighting the possibility of a short-term price surge (a 'fakeout') post-data release, followed by a decline, mirroring patterns seen after previous CPI announcements. This suggests persistent uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic indicators and market reactions, underscoring that additional information on inflation pressures and labor market dynamics will be critical in determining Bitcoin's future price direction. ・RWA Tokens Surge 11% Weekly, On-Chain Value Hits Record High of $29 Billion The 11% weekly increase in the market for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) and the record high in total on-chain value clearly demonstrate active institutional engagement in RWA tokenization and the deepening integration of blockchain technology with the real economy. Specifically, progress in tokenizing US Treasuries and private credit is expanding market trust and scale while creating new investment opportunities. This trend holds the potential to increase the overall maturity of the digital asset market and promote the integration of broader asset classes onto the blockchain. ・8 Out of 10 Bitcoin Bullish Indicators Deteriorate; Momentum Slows Despite $116,000 Rise Analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that eight out of ten indicators predictive of a Bitcoin bull market have deteriorated, suggesting a slowdown in market momentum. This implies the recent price rise might not signify the beginning of a sustainable uptrend but could be a reaction to short-term overheating or a temporary correction phase. While cooling market exuberance may be necessary for long-term sustainability, it also risks temporarily dampening market participant sentiment and potentially increasing the risk of further price declines. ・Gen Alpha Prefers Bitcoin Over Gold: Next-Generation Values and Bitcoin Adoption The perspective that the next generation (Gen Alpha) will increasingly view Bitcoin as a primary asset over traditional stores of value like gold presents an interesting outlook for long-term Bitcoin proliferation and adoption. For digital natives, Bitcoin may evolve from a high-risk speculative asset into a familiar and standard entity. This generational shift in values could structurally drive future demand for Bitcoin, serving as a long-term positive factor contributing to the growth of the digital asset market. Overall Summary: Continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and BlackRock's exploration of ETF tokenization are enhancing market credibility and deepening institutional engagement. While CPI data and rate cut expectations support short-term price increases, the deterioration of bullish indicators signals potential correction risks, making close monitoring of macroeconomic trends essential. Progress in RWA tokenization and evolving generational values suggest future demand for Bitcoin and market maturation, though caution regarding short-term volatility remains warranted.

The deterioration of 80% of recent bullish indicators suggests a slowdown in short-term momentum and the risk of a correction. The rally to $115,000 could potentially be a short-term fakeout following the CPI announcement. The key support level is the recent low at $110,055. A break below this level could trigger further downward pressure. Continued attention should be paid to the persistence of inflationary pressures and trends in upcoming macroeconomic indicators.

Over the next 24-48 hours, Bitcoin, bolstered by sustained inflows into ETFs and positive macroeconomic factors, is expected to maintain its hold above $115,000 and continue testing the $116,000-$121,000 resistance zone. In the medium term (1-week timeframe), the key focus will be whether this resistance zone can be broken. A successful breakout could fuel further upside, while struggles against it might lead to a correction phase. Next-generation Bitcoin adoption stands as a long-term positive catalyst.

The Bitcoin market is underpinned by fundamentals reinforcing institutional confidence, exemplified by strong inflows into spot ETFs and BlackRock's exploration of ETF tokenization. US CPI data meeting market expectations preserves expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, fostering a favorable macroeconomic environment poised to drive Bitcoin prices above $115,000. However, the deterioration observed in 80% of bullish indicators signals a potential slowdown in short-term momentum and implies correction risks, necessitating caution against market overheating. Confirmation of a sustained uptrend hinges on breaking the recent high of $116,705 and overcoming the resistance zone spanning $116,000 to $121,000. For investment strategy, consider buying on pullbacks upon confirmation of the break above $116,705, or accumulating positions around the $110,000 vicinity, while maintaining vigilance over the $110,055 support level. Short-term targets are set at $120,000, with potential for further upside in the medium to long term. Implementing stop-losses below $110,055 is critical for risk management. Long-term positive catalysts, including advancements in Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization and next-generation Bitcoin adoption, are expected to provide continued market support. Currently, a distinct bullish bias prevails, driven by robust institutional demand and positive macroeconomic tailwinds. Prudent market analysis and systematic position building are essential for capitalizing on this bull market.