The SEC's review of ETF listing standards, MicroStrategy's additional Bitcoin purchases, and advancements in Bitcoin adoption by various countries and institutions are strongly bolstering market confidence and institutional inflow. While selling pressure from long-term holders acts as a temporary corrective factor, robust fundamentals provide underlying support for the market. Overall, market sentiment is neutral, yet exhibits significant upside potential.

・SEC approval of listing standards can mainstream crypto ETFs The SEC's consideration of approval for listing standards could potentially accelerate and simplify the approval process for ETFs targeting altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple, following the success of Bitcoin ETFs. This would enhance institutional investors' access to the crypto market, potentially attracting significant new capital inflows. The expansion of the ETF market is expected to improve liquidity across the cryptocurrency ecosystem and deepen its integration with traditional financial markets, possibly contributing to price stabilization and reduced volatility. While the introduction of altcoin ETFs could broaden the market scope and act as a catalyst for increased interest in Bitcoin, the inherent volatility of the targeted altcoins presents new risk factors; however, the regulatory stance signals a positive development for the market. ・Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys $217M in Bitcoin MicroStrategy's recent purchase of approximately $217.4 million worth of Bitcoin underscores the persistent strength of demand from institutional investors, particularly from major corporations viewing Bitcoin as a strategic asset. This acquisition reinforces confidence in Bitcoin within the market and provides price support. The actions of prominent investors like Michael Saylor can positively influence market sentiment, potentially stimulating investment appetite among other institutional and retail investors. The company's strategy of acquiring Bitcoin through equity issuance bridges the capital markets and the cryptocurrency market, potentially serving as a factor supporting future capital inflows into Bitcoin. ・Bitcoin long-term holders offload 241,000 BTC The offloading of 241,000 BTC by long-term holders (LTHs) over the past 30 days suggests profit-taking or position adjustments following recent all-time highs, increasing downward pressure from the supply side. Notably, this coincided with large sell-offs by whales, exacerbating short-term price volatility. Analysts indicate that this selling pressure could potentially drive the Bitcoin price down towards the $95,500 range, necessitating close monitoring by market participants. Whether this sell-off is absorbed by institutional buying will be key in determining the short-term market direction. ・CoinShares to go public in the US through $1.2B SPAC merger European asset manager CoinShares' plan to list on the US Nasdaq via a $1.2 billion SPAC merger accelerates the trend of cryptocurrency asset managers listing on traditional stock exchanges, signaling deepening integration between the crypto market and the traditional financial system. This provides institutional investors with easier access to investment opportunities in crypto-related companies within a more regulated framework. The expansion of firms like CoinShares into the US market enhances the credibility of the broader crypto sector and holds the potential to foster long-term capital inflows. ・HSBC, ICBC eye Hong Kong stablecoin licenses under new regime Major global banks such as HSBC and ICBC exploring stablecoin issuance licenses in Hong Kong suggest a significant move by traditional financial institutions into blockchain technology and the broader crypto ecosystem. This could lead to an increase in more reliable, regulator-supervised stablecoins, thereby enhancing overall market liquidity. The healthy growth of the stablecoin market and the participation of major financial players are expected to foster greater trust in the cryptocurrency market as a whole, indirectly supporting Bitcoin's positioning as "digital gold." ・Nasdaq asks SEC for rule change to trade tokenized stocks Nasdaq's request to the SEC for a rule change to enable trading of tokenized stocks strongly promotes the blockchain-based tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), accelerating the integration of blockchain technology into the core of traditional financial systems. If approved, this rule change would enhance the transparency and liquidity of tokenized securities, reducing barriers for investors seeking access to these assets. This development could boost market perception regarding the reliability and utility of blockchain technology, potentially increasing interest in Bitcoin indirectly as well. ・Metaplanet, El Salvador add Bitcoin as sentiment shifts ‘neutral’ The additional Bitcoin purchases by Japan-based Metaplanet and El Salvador, amidst a recovery in market sentiment towards 'neutral,' demonstrate persistent demand for Bitcoin at both institutional and national levels. Metaplanet's long-term holding objective suggests Bitcoin is increasingly recognized as a long-term store of value, while El Salvador's continued adoption highlights its role as a national strategy. These acquisitions provide direct buying pressure to the market and represent favorable signs for sustained growth. Executive Summary The SEC's consideration of standardized ETF listing criteria and Nasdaq's application for tokenized stock trading are poised to accelerate the convergence of crypto and traditional financial markets, facilitate institutional adoption, and enhance overall market credibility and liquidity. While ongoing Bitcoin acquisitions by entities like MicroStrategy signal robust demand, selling pressure from long-term holders and macroeconomic uncertainties present short-term downside risks. Conversely, the interest from major banks in stablecoin issuance and Bitcoin purchases at national and corporate levels underpin improving market sentiment and long-term confidence. The cryptocurrency market is expected to remain in a phase characterized by both growth and volatility.

The sale of 241,000 BTC by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) over the past 30 days indicates selling pressure originating from the supply side, driven by profit-taking and position adjustments. This suggests a potential price correction towards the $95,500 level, necessitating caution regarding heightened short-term volatility. However, the key determinant for future price action will be whether sustained institutional buying can absorb this selling pressure.

For the next 24-48 hours, a tug-of-war is expected between selling pressure from long-term holders and buying pressure from institutional investors. Looking ahead over the next week, positive developments concerning ETF-related news from the SEC and actions by major financial institutions could potentially lead to a breakout above the upper range. Key catalysts to watch include continued inflows into ETFs and the SEC's decisions regarding tokenized securities.

The current Bitcoin market is characterized by strong positive fundamentals that are significantly boosting market confidence and liquidity through increasing institutional adoption. Key drivers include the SEC's review of standardized listing criteria for ETFs and the interest shown by major global banks, such as HSBC and ICBC, in issuing stablecoins. Selling pressure from long-term holders, estimated at 241,000 BTC, could act as a temporary moderating factor, potentially driving the price towards the $95,500 level. Crucially, this presents an opportune moment for institutional investors to accumulate positions at a more advantageous average cost. Market sentiment remains balanced, reflected by a Fear & Greed Index of 51 (Neutral) and an RSI of 58.2, suggesting the market is not overheated. This neutral territory indicates significant potential for further upside. Bitcoin's dominance stands firm at 56.3%, underscoring its leading role in the overall market, while the anticipation of potential altcoin ETF approvals is expected to indirectly enhance focus on Bitcoin itself. The proposed investment strategy is to view short-term price declines as buying opportunities, recommending accumulation within the $107,414 to $109,000 range. The primary target price is $120,000, should the market decisively surpass the recent high of $113,225, with a subsequent target at $130,000. A stop-loss level is advised if the price breaks clearly below $107,000. Key events to monitor this week include ETF capital inflows and the SEC's rulings on tokenized securities, as positive news flow in these areas could serve as strong catalysts for Bitcoin's price advancement. From a risk management standpoint, it is advisable to closely observe the selling dynamics of long-term holders while maintaining a generally optimistic market view for consistent wealth building. Bitcoin is increasingly cementing its status as "digital gold," and we firmly believe that a long-term investment approach promises significant returns.