Growing expectations of US interest rate cuts are driving anticipation of capital inflows into Bitcoin. However, the correction following weaker-than-expected employment data suggests this outcome may already be priced in, even as on-chain data highlights the network's persistent underlying strength. Additionally, the prospect of regulatory clarity is expected to bolster institutional adoption. The overall market maintains a medium-to-long-term bullish bias.

Fundamental Analysis * Prospects of US Interest Rate Reductions Forecasts from several major financial institutions anticipating multiple interest rate cuts in 2025 serve as a medium-to-long-term positive factor for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin. A low-interest-rate environment encourages capital inflows into risk assets and stimulates investment activity by lowering the cost of capital. Fed rate cuts are expected to foster anticipation of economic stimulus measures, thereby increasing the attractiveness of growth assets like Bitcoin. For institutional investors, this provides an incentive to increase their allocation to risk assets within portfolios, potentially heightening interest in cryptocurrencies. However, as the timing and pace of rate cuts remain contingent on economic indicators, the market is likely to continue reacting sensitively to macroeconomic data releases. * US Employment Data and its Impact on Bitcoin Price Weaker-than-expected US employment data should strengthen expectations of Fed rate cuts, typically acting as a tailwind for Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin experienced a brief rally immediately after the announcement before entering a correction phase. This suggests that the market may have already priced in the anticipation of rate cuts, or that short-term profit-taking became dominant. In the long term, while concerns about an economic slowdown are expected to sustain expectations for liquidity provision, the increasing risk of recession could present a headwind for risk assets overall. Maintaining key resistance levels on the weekly chart will be crucial for short-term resilience. Institutional investors are likely to continue positioning themselves to benefit from a medium-to-long-term rate cut scenario and potential liquidity increases, while remaining cautious about macroeconomic uncertainty and heightened volatility. * US Cryptocurrency Regulatory Developments The clarification on the treatment of tokenized securities within the proposed crypto market structure bill in the US Senate, along with regulatory considerations by the SEC and CFTC regarding 24/7 markets and derivatives, are crucial for promoting market transparency and institutional maturity. Regulatory clarity reduces barriers to entry for institutional investors and simplifies risk management. Integrating tokenized securities into existing regulatory frameworks is expected to accelerate the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA) and strengthen linkages with traditional financial markets. While the potential for 24/7 markets could enhance liquidity and market efficiency, it also necessitates new risk management approaches. These regulatory trends are laying the groundwork for integrating cryptocurrencies into the broader financial system, establishing a foundation for market stabilization and growth. * Ethereum ETF Outflows and On-Chain Data Weekly outflows from US-domiciled Ethereum ETFs signal a short-term cooling of institutional sentiment and position adjustments, exerting temporary downward pressure on ETH prices. This could be linked to macroeconomic uncertainties or profit-taking following significant prior gains. However, Ethereum's on-chain data—including increased transaction volume, a growing number of active addresses, and rising net outflows from exchanges—indicates expanding network utility and robust underlying demand, suggesting the foundation for long-term price appreciation remains intact. Notably, a reduction in cumulative outflows from exchanges signals accumulation by holders, potentially leading to supply tightening and upward price pressure. Institutional investors are likely observing the divergence between ETF flows and on-chain data, increasingly valuing the latter's indication of fundamental strength. * ARK Invest's Continued Investment in Crypto-Related Stocks ARK Invest's ongoing accumulation of shares in crypto-related companies like Bitmine and Bullish suggests a strong conviction among prominent institutional investors regarding the long-term growth potential of the crypto ecosystem. Investments in these firms can be viewed as indirect bets on the ecosystem's core infrastructure. Such active investment strategies remain resilient to market volatility and short-term sentiment shifts, contributing to the strengthening of the crypto market's foundation and enhancing its credibility. For other institutional investors, the actions of forward-thinking asset managers provide a positive signal, informing their market entry and investment decisions. * Tether's Investment in the Gold Supply Chain and the "Digital Gold" Narrative Tether's consideration of investing in the gold supply chain marks a notable move by a cryptocurrency issuer to expand exposure to traditional physical assets and diversify its portfolio. With gold prices reaching record highs and undergoing re-evaluation as a "safe-haven asset," interest in Bitcoin as "digital gold" is further amplified. Tether's potential expansion into gold investments could bolster the stability of its stablecoin reserves while also deepening discussions about the correlation between cryptocurrencies and physical assets, and their respective roles as risk-hedging tools. Institutional investors are paying close attention to the convergence trend between physical and digital assets, seeking new investment opportunities as cryptocurrencies become further embedded within the financial infrastructure. * Bitcoin Cycle Peak Predictions and Statistical Perspectives The differing views among analysts regarding Bitcoin's cycle peak price predictions indicate a diversification of factors influencing price formation. An over-reliance on past halving cycles is statistically limited, necessitating more comprehensive analyses that incorporate elements like ETF inflows, the macroeconomic environment, and technological innovation. Institutional investors should avoid overconfidence in simplistic cycle theories and adopt statistically robust approaches. While forecasting uncertainty may increase short-term volatility, the market's eventual shift towards fundamentals-driven price action should improve prediction accuracy and contribute to overall market stabilization in the long run. * The Tokenization Trend of Real-World Assets (RWA) The tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA), including assets such as vehicle leases, real estate, and gold, represents a significant trend expanding the use cases of blockchain technology beyond traditional financial markets. This process facilitates the trading of previously illiquid assets and has the potential to create new secondary markets. Institutional investors are focusing on the substantial potential market size (estimated in the trillions of dollars) for RWA tokenization and are exploring investment opportunities through integration with platforms like ETFs and DeFi. This evolution signifies crypto's transition from a purely speculative asset class to one integrated with financial infrastructure and the real economy. This trend has the potential to boost overall market liquidity and attract a broader base of investors. Overall Summary As of September 5, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing complex dynamics impacting Bitcoin's price, driven by intersecting macroeconomic factors such as expectations of US interest rate cuts and weaker employment data, alongside anticipation surrounding regulatory clarity. Institutional investors are maintaining their exposure to the crypto ecosystem, evidenced by ARK Invest's continued accumulation of shares and Tether's interest in the gold market, while closely monitoring RWA tokenization trends and regulatory developments. Although outflows from Ethereum ETFs present a short-term concern, on-chain data suggests underlying network strength, indicating the market is balancing fundamental strength against macroeconomic factors. Overall, while the market is maturing, continued vigilance regarding volatility and regulatory risks remains essential.

Downside risks include fading expectations of US rate cuts, a resurgence of recession fears, and continued outflows from ETFs. The key support level is around the recent low of $107,414; breaking below this level could lead to further corrections. Additionally, over-reliance on simplistic halving cycle theories poses a risk of increasing volatility.

For the next 24-48 hours, minor price movements within the current range are anticipated. The medium-term outlook suggests a potential upward trend if speculation surrounding US interest rate cuts intensifies and inflows into ETFs resume. News concerning the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA) and regulatory clarity are expected to act as catalysts driving Bitcoin's price higher.

The Bitcoin market is currently in a consolidation phase, stemming from a complex interplay of US monetary policy direction, the interpretation of employment statistics, and ETF market dynamics. However, cumulative inflows into Bitcoin ETFs by institutional investors, combined with the robustness indicated by on-chain data, are establishing a strong foundation for potential future upside. Notably, expectations surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are expected to encourage capital flow into risk assets, providing a significant tailwind for Bitcoin. Furthermore, fundamental developments such as regulatory clarity and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) are anticipated to drive the market's maturation and expansion. At present, bearish signals are limited, and we hold a strong conviction that the bull market will continue from a medium to long-term perspective. We advise viewing the current situation as a temporary correction and identifying strategic entry points. Specifically, we recommend buying on dips near the support level of $107,414 or within the $110,000 price range. A clear break above $113,225 could signal further upward momentum, making it advisable to consider adding to positions. Our profit targets are set initially at $115,000, followed by $120,000. Implement stop-loss levels at a clear break below $107,414, or utilize a 5-10% stop relative to your position size. From a risk management perspective, it is critical to maintain vigilance regarding macroeconomic indicator releases, particularly inflation rates and employment data, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials. Additionally, continuously monitor for any sustained outflows from ETFs and significant changes in on-chain data. By closely tracking these factors and maintaining a level-headed approach, you can successfully ride the major trends in this market. Proceed with firm conviction and steadily grow your assets.