Weak US employment data triggered short-term risk aversion, but strong fundamentals, including increasing corporate Bitcoin holdings and the growing adoption of stablecoin payments, are underpinning the market. Continued institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs signal Bitcoin's establishment as an asset class, with the long-term bullish trend remaining intact. While the market is undergoing a temporary consolidation phase, structural growth is accelerating, positioning it for further upside.

・Weak US Jobs Data and Impact on Bitcoin Price The weakness in the recently announced US employment statistics has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FRB), leading to a flight to safety into assets like Treasuries and gold. Consequently, Bitcoin fell below its critical support level of $110,000, recording a drop of over 2%. Historically, a slowdown in the US job market should strengthen the FRB's dovish stance, benefiting risk assets broadly. However, current concerns about an economic recession appear to be overshadowing this, tilting investor sentiment towards risk aversion. Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market remains high, and it faces the risk of further price declines amid a broadening bearish sentiment across the market. Institutional investors need to closely monitor the release of macroeconomic indicators and their market impact, ensuring rigorous risk management for their portfolios. ・Potential for Short Squeeze and Bear Trap Strategy Some market participants are pointing to the possibility of Bitcoin price falling into a "bear trap," potentially followed by a large-scale short squeeze. Similarities to past market patterns, particularly the consolidation phase in 2024, are being noted. This suggests a potential strategy where market makers intentionally keep prices within a range to foster a bearish consensus, aiming for a subsequent sharp price surge. Such scenarios increase the risk of rapid price fluctuations, requiring caution, especially for leveraged traders. Institutional investors must prepare for potential market manipulation and sudden sentiment shifts, implementing stringent risk management practices, including careful position sizing and leverage control. While a short squeeze could lead to a temporary price increase, its sustainability warrants careful analysis. ・Corporate Bitcoin Holdings Reach 1 Million BTC The milestone of corporate Bitcoin holdings exceeding 1 million BTC, representing 5.1% of Bitcoin's total supply, clearly indicates a shift from a temporary trend to an established strategy of accepting Bitcoin as an asset class among institutional investors. Since MicroStrategy first incorporated Bitcoin into its treasury assets in August 2020, over 184 publicly traded companies now hold Bitcoin. This suggests Bitcoin is increasingly recognized as an asset with potential as an inflation hedge, a diversification tool, and even a new revenue stream. This substantial corporate accumulation could trigger supply shocks in the market, enhancing Bitcoin's scarcity and acting as upward price pressure. For institutional investors, the growth in corporate Bitcoin holdings serves as a signal of increasing market maturity and credibility, offering opportunities not only for direct Bitcoin investment but also for indirect exposure through shares of companies holding significant Bitcoin reserves. ・MicroStrategy's Potential S&P 500 Inclusion and Hurdles News regarding MicroStrategy being a candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 index suggests the potential for deeper integration of crypto-related companies into traditional financial markets. S&P 500 inclusion could trigger substantial capital inflows from index funds and ETFs, potentially boosting MicroStrategy's stock price and, indirectly, the demand for Bitcoin. However, factors such as the sustainability of its large Bitcoin holdings strategy and its high stock price volatility could present hurdles for the index inclusion committee's review. This situation could serve as a precedent for how companies with significant crypto-asset holdings are evaluated against traditional financial market standards. By closely monitoring the outcome of this potential inclusion, institutional investors can gain insights into the interplay between cryptocurrencies and traditional markets, as well as the future direction of regulation and market integration. If included in the S&P 500, it would open Bitcoin investment to a broader investor base, promoting overall market liquidity and adoption. ・Binance BTC/Stablecoin Ratio and Market Bottom Signal The signal indicating that the reserve ratio of Bitcoin to stablecoins on Binance is approaching 1:1 is drawing attention as a potential technical indicator of a market bottom, based on historical precedents. This suggests a state where market participants are waiting in stablecoins rather than investing in Bitcoin, implying capital is poised to enter the market or that some investors have already begun bottom-fishing. However, comparative analysis with past patterns and market structure studies suggest that the adjustment phase may continue. Specifically, the potential breach of the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) support level indicates short-term downside risk. Institutional investors need to comprehensively analyze these multiple indicators and market structures to assess the potential for a market reversal or further adjustments. If this signal proves accurate, a short-term rebound in Bitcoin's price could be expected; otherwise, preparedness for further downside risk is necessary. ・PayPal Expanding Stablecoin Payment Support PayPal's introduction of functionality allowing US merchants to accept cryptocurrency payments at the point-of-sale (POS), settling them in stablecoins or fiat currency, represents a significant step towards mainstream adoption for cryptocurrencies, particularly stablecoins, as everyday payment methods. This feature could substantially reduce fees for cross-border transactions, potentially redefining the economics of international commerce. It signifies a transition for cryptocurrencies from speculative assets to practical financial infrastructure, enhancing trust, especially in stablecoins deployed within regulatory compliance frameworks. For institutional investors, the integration of crypto payments as a standard feature by major payment providers like PayPal opens new channels for capital inflow into the crypto market and contributes to improved market liquidity and stability. This also suggests expanded opportunities for indirect investment in major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. ・Potential Dogecoin ETF and Altcoin Market Spillover Analyst predictions regarding the potential launch of a Dogecoin ETF in the US as early as next week suggest that institutional interest in memecoins is expanding beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum to the broader cryptocurrency market. The approval of an ETF for an altcoin like Dogecoin would signify market diversification and open new channels for more investors to access the altcoin market, potentially boosting overall market liquidity and facilitating institutional capital inflows. Given the significant impact ETF approvals have had on Bitcoin's price historically, the launch of a Dogecoin ETF could serve as a catalyst, bringing positive sentiment to the entire market and reigniting interest in other altcoins. Institutional investors can track the developments surrounding such altcoin ETFs to capture overall market trends and identify new investment opportunities. ・1Money Acquires US Money Transmission Licenses The news that 1Money has acquired 34 US money transmitter licenses, along with a digital asset business license in Bermuda, reflects a move towards enhanced compliance in stablecoin issuance and operation. This suggests progress in collaboration with regulators within the crypto ecosystem, particularly in the stablecoin sector, leading to improved operational transparency and trustworthiness. Acquiring numerous licenses signifies expanded geographical coverage, enabling the provision of services in more regions while maintaining regulatory compliance. For institutional investors, infrastructure approved by regulatory bodies is crucial for mitigating investment risk and ensuring secure participation. This development is an essential step for stablecoins in establishing their position as international payment and remittance systems, and it will also contribute to enhancing the overall credibility of the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin. ・Kazakhstan Pilots Stablecoin Payments for Regulatory Fees Kazakhstan's launch of a pilot program allowing the use of USD-pegged stablecoins for paying regulatory fees is a significant move indicating regulatory authorities' formal recognition and utilization of stablecoins as practical payment means and infrastructure. This demonstrates Kazakhstan's ambition as a digital finance hub in Asia and holds the potential to promote the global adoption of stablecoins and the standardization of regulatory frameworks. For institutional investors, increasing acceptance of stablecoins by regulatory bodies can enhance the credibility of the overall crypto market and bolster investment in Bitcoin as a broader asset class. Notably, stablecoins' potential to solve challenges associated with traditional bank transfers, such as delays and high costs, suggests their strengthening role as international payment and remittance infrastructure. This indirectly benefits Bitcoin by enhancing its global liquidity and accessibility. ・Overall Summary Short-term Bitcoin price action is expected to remain volatile due to multiple factors, including weak US jobs data, a subsequent flight to safety into haven assets, and the potential for short squeezes. However, several positive developments, such as the increasing volume of corporate Bitcoin holdings, the possibility of MicroStrategy's inclusion in the S&P 500, and advancements in stablecoin payment infrastructure and regulatory approvals, are providing strong tailwinds by boosting overall market credibility and encouraging institutional participation. These factors are expected to form the foundation supporting the long-term growth of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, enhancing overall market maturity.

Risk-off sentiment stemming from weak US employment data represents a primary downside risk for the Bitcoin price. Having already fallen below the $110,000 support level, the next significant support is the recent low of $107,414. A breakdown below this level cannot be ruled out, potentially paving the way for further declines. The possibility of short squeezes or bear traps initiated by market makers is also being cited, necessitating increased caution with leveraged trading.

Over the next 24-48 hours, expect a period of heightened volatility as the market continues its reaction to US macroeconomic indicators. Bitcoin is likely to rebound should the market show signs of recovering from risk-off sentiment. In the medium term, positive fundamentals, including increasing corporate Bitcoin holdings and the expansion of PayPal's payment services, are expected to foster market maturity and support price appreciation. The potential launch of a Dogecoin ETF next week could also bring ripple effects across the broader altcoin market.

Bitcoin's price briefly dipped below $110,000 today, triggered by weaker-than-expected US employment data fueling a temporary risk-off sentiment. However, this appears to be mere short-term noise. The fundamental drivers underpinning Bitcoin remain exceptionally strong, evidenced by continuous substantial institutional inflows into ETFs (cumulative $54.6 billion), the potential inclusion of MicroStrategy in the S&P 500, PayPal's expansion of stablecoin payments, and Kazakhstan's pilot implementation of stablecoin usage. The milestone of corporate holdings reaching 1 million BTC clearly solidifies Bitcoin's position as a recognized inflation hedge and a portfolio diversification asset. While short-term volatility is expected to persist, market participants should focus on these positive structural shifts. Although a bearish MACD crossover and RSI hovering in neutral territory suggest a lack of clear short-term direction, the market is poised to resume its uptrend provided firm support holds around the $107,414 level. We view the $105,000 to $107,000 range as an excellent opportunity for further portfolio accumulation. Entries should be considered upon confirmation of a bullish reversal signal within this support range, targeting the $113,225 level initially, followed by $115,000. A stop-loss should be executed to cap risk upon a decisive break below $107,414. Throughout the week, we will monitor the $110,000 level as a crucial zone of resistance and support, as breakouts or breakdowns from these levels will present fresh trading opportunities. In terms of risk management, staying vigilant about macroeconomic data releases, particularly inflation figures and Federal Reserve policy communications, is essential. The performance of the S&P 500 and the strength of the DXY (US Dollar Index) also serve as key indicators for gauging market sentiment. By holistically analyzing these factors, we will drive a robust strategy to navigate market fluctuations and secure sustained profitability. Bitcoin is undoubtedly set to further solidify its status as 'digital gold' and increase its significance within investment portfolios.