Bitcoin is currently undergoing a consolidation phase within the $112,000 to $116,000 range. However, sustained, large-scale inflows into ETFs signal strong underlying demand from institutional investors, bolstering the price. Its strengthening correlation with gold cements its status as a key macro hedge asset. As the market cools overheated sentiment and prepares for a fresh upward trajectory, the overall market bias is expected to remain bullish.

・Bitcoin is consolidating in the $112,000-$116,000 range as the market cools from a potential euphoria phase. Having pulled back from its recent peak, Bitcoin faces the $112,000-$116,000 range as the next resistance level. The market is seeking to transition towards a more stable upward trajectory after cooling excessive exuberance. Profit-taking by short-term holders is also occurring, potentially leading to a slowdown in short-term price momentum. The ability to break through this $112,000-$116,000 supply zone will be key to sustaining the mid-to-long-term upward trend. Currently, the possibility of facing resistance within this zone cannot be dismissed, necessitating consideration of temporary price stagnation or downside risks. ・Continuous inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, coupled with an increasing correlation with Gold, are underpinning the market. Persistent institutional demand serves as a crucial factor supporting prices. As Gold reaches new all-time highs, Bitcoin is strengthening its position as a macro hedge asset, reinforcing its long-term demand foundation. ETF inflows are also expected to enhance market liquidity and smooth the price discovery process. However, seasonal weakness in late September could exert short-term downward pressure. The rising correlation with Gold offers relative security for BTC amidst macro uncertainty, increasing its appeal for some investors from a portfolio diversification standpoint. ・Bitcoin is re-testing the $112,000 level, with bulls testing a critical support area. Gold updating its record highs and the trend of Bitcoin being increasingly viewed as a macro hedge asset enhance Bitcoin's relative appeal amid global financial market uncertainty. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts could also act as a tailwind for risk assets in general, although the impact will likely fluctuate based on how the market prices the timing and scale of these cuts. Maintaining the $112,000 level remains a significant factor influencing short-term market sentiment. ・Wintermute's proposal to the SEC, advocating that 'network tokens are not securities,' voices the industry's call for regulatory clarity. Obtaining clear guidance confirming that foundational tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum are not considered securities would substantially lower entry barriers for institutional investors and accelerate innovation. This would invigorate trading activities within the U.S. and contribute to the healthy growth of the overall market. Resolving regulatory uncertainty is expected to attract more capital, building a strong foundation to support Bitcoin price stabilization and sustained appreciation. ・The Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) indicating a policy to tighten cryptocurrency regulations is seen as part of a global trend towards enhanced and clarified regulatory frameworks. While this could potentially improve transparency and investor protection, concerns remain regarding potential increases in short-term trading costs and impacts on liquidity. Regulatory developments in major economies warrant close attention as they influence overall market sentiment. Further observation is needed to determine how regulatory changes in Japan will affect crypto adoption and trading practices in the Asian region, though the direct impact on Bitcoin's price is expected to be limited. ・The increasing trend of corporate Bitcoin purchases, particularly the reinvestment of profits (averaging 22%) by companies, especially SMEs, signals that Bitcoin is increasingly recognized as part of corporate financial strategies, moving beyond mere speculation. Adoption progress by companies involved in the real economy strengthens the long-term demand base and accelerates Bitcoin's proliferation. Unlike previous cycles driven by retail investors, this trend provides a basis for more sustainable and stable price appreciation. The movement of companies integrating Bitcoin onto their balance sheets enhances market maturity and credibility. ・The reduction in Ethereum's supply held on exchanges, combined with continuous purchasing driven by ETH ETFs and corporate treasury adoption, suggests that demand for ETH is currently outstripping supply. Ethereum's strengthening role as a 'productive asset' presents a distinct advantage compared to Bitcoin. The revitalization of the broader ETH ecosystem is expected to positively influence overall market liquidity and investor sentiment, potentially creating indirect positive spillover effects for the Bitcoin market and enhancing the overall appeal of the cryptocurrency space. ・The emergence of AI trading agents holds the potential to dramatically improve the efficiency of market analysis and trade execution. By helping to cut through market noise and supporting more sophisticated investment decisions, AI could lead to greater market efficiency and shifts in volatility. This represents an evolution in algorithmic trading that may influence future price formation mechanisms. The proliferation of AI agents is poised to alter investment methodologies among market participants, fostering a more data-driven approach. ・The threat posed by quantum computing to cryptographic technologies should be recognized as a long-term security risk. While the immediate impact is currently limited, the potential for future concerns regarding asset protection cannot be dismissed. Market participants must closely monitor the transition towards quantum-resistant cryptography. Should this risk materialize, it could undermine the foundational reliability of the entire market. As this could impact Bitcoin's long-term role as a store of value, careful observation of advancements in related technologies and countermeasures is crucial. Overall Summary: Institutional entry into the cryptocurrency market is steadily advancing through ETFs and corporate treasury strategies, strengthening the demand base for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Clear guidance from regulatory bodies and the utilization of AI technology hold the potential to foster healthy market growth and efficiency. While the global macroeconomic environment and regulatory trends will continue to influence market volatility, long-term technological proliferation and expanding adoption are expected to underpin future growth prospects for the cryptocurrency market.

The primary downside risk stems from the inability to overcome the resistance zone between $112,000 and $116,000. Should the price stagnate or reverse within this range, short-term market sentiment could deteriorate. The critical support level to watch is $112,000; a breach of this level risks exacerbating any temporary correction. Moreover, global regulatory developments, like proposed stricter regulations in Japan, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continue to be factors demanding vigilance.

For the upcoming 24-48 hour period, the outlook suggests an attempt to challenge the $116,000 resistance level, contingent on maintaining support at $112,000. In the medium term, powerful catalysts poised to drive the market higher include sustained inflows into ETFs and Bitcoin's growing recognition as a macro hedge, underscored by its strengthening correlation with gold. We are confident that Bitcoin will resume a significant upward trend, particularly upon the emergence of clear regulatory guidance (such as the Wintermute proposal) and the realization of expected Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The Bitcoin market is currently undergoing a healthy correction following its previous rally, consolidating within the $112,000-$116,000 range. This adjustment is a crucial process that alleviates market overheating and lays the groundwork for a more sustainable uptrend. Sustained significant inflows from institutional investors into ETFs (averaging $301.3M daily) clearly demonstrate the robustness of Bitcoin's long-term demand base and its strengthening position as a macro-hedge asset, evidenced by an increasing correlation with gold. This underpins our fundamentally bullish outlook. Factors such as the anticipation of regulatory clarity, exemplified by Wintermute's proposals to the SEC, advancements in corporate Bitcoin adoption, and the rise of AI trading algorithms, are poised to further enhance market maturity and efficiency, acting as significant tailwinds that promise substantial future growth. While the global macroeconomic environment and regulatory developments remain key factors requiring close monitoring for short-term volatility, a future where Bitcoin achieves new all-time highs (ATHs) lies beyond these potential headwinds. From an investment strategy perspective, buying the dip near the $112,000 support level remains a viable approach. Should this support hold, the focus shifts to targeting a breakout above $116,000, paving the way towards $120,000 and potentially $130,000. In terms of risk management, implementing stop-losses upon a decisive break below $112,000 and maintaining appropriate position sizing are paramount. Supported by robust market sentiment and growing structural demand, we firmly believe Bitcoin's future is bright, with a sustained upward trend poised to continue.