Concerns regarding a potential US government shutdown, coupled with increased corporate Bitcoin purchases, signal a potential market bottom and growing institutional interest. The collaboration between Chainlink and SWIFT, and the SEC's consideration of applying blockchain to securities trading, suggest deeper TradFi integration and positive implications for Layer 1 blockchains like AVAX. Regulatory uncertainty surrounding stablecoins presents a risk. Overall, the bias is neutral, but with a focus on positive catalysts.

* Potential US Government Shutdown and its Impact on the Crypto Market The possibility of a US government shutdown could drive investment towards Bitcoin and gold as safe-haven assets, potentially signaling a market bottom. Institutional investors may reassess Bitcoin as a tool for portfolio diversification and an inflation hedge amidst macroeconomic uncertainty. This could lead to temporary price surges and foster positive sentiment across the broader cryptocurrency market. * Increase in Bot Activity in Stablecoin Transactions The fact that over 70% of stablecoin transactions in Q3 2025 are attributed to bots impacts market liquidity and trading volume. High-frequency trading driven by bots can amplify market volatility. Given that stablecoins are foundational assets in the crypto market, the influence of bots on their transaction patterns could affect the price discovery mechanism for the entire market. * Tornado Cash Co-founder Seeks to Vacate Guilty Verdict The motion by Roman Storm, co-founder of Tornado Cash, to vacate his guilty verdict indicates regulatory uncertainty surrounding the legal status of cryptocurrency mixers. The outcome of this lawsuit could influence future regulatory approaches towards companies offering privacy-focused cryptocurrency services, potentially having long-term effects on investor sentiment towards Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and privacy-related crypto projects. * Metaplanet Emerges as 4th Largest Bitcoin Holder with $600 Million Purchase Japanese investment firm Metaplanet's additional purchase of approximately $600 million in Bitcoin signifies continued corporate accumulation. This supports the view of Bitcoin establishing itself as a reserve asset, moving beyond its role as merely a speculative instrument. Amidst growing institutional interest, this could serve as a factor supporting Bitcoin's price in the mid-to-long term. * Chainlink and SWIFT Collaboration to Facilitate On-Chain Transactions The integration between Chainlink and SWIFT, enabling on-chain transactions by leveraging existing financial infrastructure, could accelerate the convergence of Traditional Finance (TradFi) and blockchain technology. This may lower the barrier to entry for institutional investors into the crypto market, potentially boosting the usage of stablecoins like USD Coin (USDC) in particular. * SEC Considers Blockchainizing Securities Trading News that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is considering plans to allow the trading of blockchain-registered stocks on cryptocurrency exchanges suggests an expansion of the tokenized stock market. The integration of traditional financial assets onto blockchain technology could drive new capital inflows into the crypto market. However, regulatory clarity is essential, and Layer 1 blockchains like AVAX could benefit from this infrastructure development. * EU Pushes to Ban Multi-Issued Stablecoins Reports indicating that European supervisory authorities are pushing for a ban on multi-issued stablecoins introduce uncertainty into the stablecoin market's regulatory landscape. This could restrict the use of major stablecoins such as USDC within the EU, potentially impacting overall market liquidity and trading activity. Regulatory developments represent a significant risk factor for stablecoin issuers and their corporate users. * Robinhood Plans International Expansion for Prediction Markets Robinhood's plan for international expansion of its prediction markets suggests the proliferation of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) services and an approach towards a broader user base. This indicates an evolution of cryptocurrency trading platforms beyond simple asset trading towards offering diverse financial products. Such service expansion could contribute to the overall revitalization of the crypto market. Overall Summary Concerns over a potential US government shutdown, increasing corporate Bitcoin acquisitions, and the Chainlink-SWIFT collaboration point towards growing institutional interest and advancements in technological integration within the crypto market. Conversely, regulatory developments concerning stablecoins and legal issues surrounding Tornado Cash contribute to market uncertainty. These complex, interacting factors will shape the short-term volatility and mid-to-long-term growth potential of the cryptocurrency market, including assets like AVAX.

Key risks include regulatory uncertainty surrounding stablecoins (including the proposed EU ban on multiple issuers), amplified trading activity driven by bots, and legal issues related to Tornado Cash. These factors could impact market liquidity and confidence in the DeFi ecosystem. A key support level is the recent low of $27. Macroeconomic uncertainties also warrant continued monitoring.

Short-term (24-48 hours): The current range-bound market may continue, or a modest upward trend could emerge, driven by positive macroeconomic news. Mid-term (1 week): Advances in Traditional Finance (TradFi) integration might catalyze a breakout above $35. However, downside risks persist, depending on stablecoin regulation developments and actions by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Layer 1 blockchains like AVAX are currently experiencing tailwinds, driven by positive fundamentals including increased safe-haven demand amid US government shutdown concerns, corporate Bitcoin acquisitions, and advancements in TradFi integration (e.g., Chainlink/SWIFT collaboration, SEC developments). However, risks such as the EU's impending stablecoin regulation and legal issues surrounding Tornado Cash persist, posing potential threats that could heighten market uncertainty and volatility. From a technical standpoint, the market remains neutral, characterized by a stable RSI, the absence of a MACD crossover, and continued range-bound trading within the established bands. For investment strategy, a buy-the-dip approach is recommended within the $27-$30 support zone. The immediate short-term focus is on a decisive breakout above the $35 resistance level, with a target set above $40 upon confirmation. Strict stop-losses should be maintained below $26.5 to limit downside risk. This week, close attention should be paid to the price action around $35, updates on stablecoin regulations, and key macroeconomic indicators. Maintaining a flexible strategy will be crucial for capitalizing on market opportunities while effectively managing associated risks.