Key highlights today include Ohio's approval of cryptocurrency payments, large-scale Ethereum liquidations, and record-breaking DEX trading volumes. Regulatory developments and technological innovations are positive; however, market volatility remains significant. The overall market bias is assessed as 'neutral,' caught between short-term bearish factors and long-term growth prospects.

・Ohio Approves Crypto Payments for State Services Ohio's approval of vendors enabling cryptocurrency payments for state services marks a significant step towards broader public adoption of crypto in the US. This move, following similar initiatives in Colorado, Utah, and Louisiana, suggests that cryptocurrencies are increasingly recognized as a viable payment method. For altcoins like AVAX, adoption by public institutions can enhance utility and credibility, potentially attracting interest from both institutional investors and retail users. Consequently, this could lead to an improved market sentiment for cryptocurrencies overall, indirectly benefiting AVAX. ・Ethereum (ETH) Price Drops Below $4,000 Amidst $36.4 Million Liquidation Event Given Ethereum's position as the leading altcoin, the price decline in ETH/USD and the substantial liquidation of long positions could negatively impact the broader market. The significant $36.4 million liquidation exerts considerable selling pressure, potentially affecting other altcoins, particularly projects reliant on ETH or DeFi protocols utilizing ETH as collateral. As AVAX, like other altcoins, is sensitive to market sentiment surrounding ETH, this liquidation may also impose short-term downward pressure on AVAX's price. ・Nine European Banks Develop MiCA-Compliant Euro Stablecoins The development of MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation)-compliant Euro stablecoins by nine European banks signifies progress in regulatory clarification within the EU and promotes the proliferation of safer, more reliable stablecoins. This initiative boosts stablecoin credibility and supports the healthy development of the overall DeFi ecosystem. AVAX, viewed as a promising DeFi platform due to its scalability and low transaction fees, could benefit from increased stablecoin usage in a regulated environment, potentially driving greater liquidity inflows into DeFi applications built on AVAX. ・Bitcoin ETF Inflows Slowing, Signaling Cooling Bullish Sentiment The deceleration of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs suggests waning institutional demand or short-term profit-taking. The fact that some analysts predict a potential price drop to $90,000 further indicates a bearish market outlook. As Bitcoin serves as the market benchmark, downward price pressure on BTC often spills over to other altcoins. AVAX is not immune to this correlation and faces an increased risk of declining alongside Bitcoin. A decrease in interest towards spot ETFs could signal reduced investment appetite across the broader cryptocurrency market. ・Decentralized Exchange (DEX) Perpetual Trading Volume Hits Record $70 Billion The record surge in perpetual trading volume on Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs), led by new derivatives platforms like Aster, highlights the vibrancy of the DeFi sector and increasing demand for sophisticated trading methods. This points to overall growth in the DEX ecosystem, potentially benefiting AVAX as an underlying infrastructure through increased platform activity. Specifically, AVAX's capacity for high-speed, low-cost transactions could lead to higher network traffic for DEXs, thereby potentially boosting demand for its native token, AVAX. ・Circle Considers "Reversible" USDC Transactions to Recover Funds from Fraud/Hacking Circle's consideration of "reversibility" for USDC transactions deviates from the core principles of crypto's typically irreversible and non-custodial nature, potentially sparking controversy. While this move aims to introduce consumer protection concepts from traditional finance into crypto, it may conflict with fundamental crypto tenets. Such a direction could increase reliance on centralized stablecoins, possibly contradicting the value proposition of decentralized platforms like AVAX. Nevertheless, it might offer short-term liquidity benefits and enhanced convenience for specific user segments. ・Australia Drafts Bill to Strengthen Crypto Exchange Regulations Australia's move to draft legislation strengthening regulations for crypto service providers reflects a global trend towards enhanced regulatory oversight. While this aims to improve transparency and investor protection within the crypto market, it may impose constraints on certain business operations. Although AVAX, owing to its technological nature, might experience minimal direct impact, regulatory clarity could serve as a positive factor for institutional investors looking to engage with the AVAX ecosystem. However, overly stringent regulations risk stifling innovation. ・Nansen Launches AI Agent for Crypto Traders, Aiming for Autonomous Trading in Q4 Nansen's launch of an AI agent, with aspirations for autonomous trading in Q4, underscores the deepening integration of AI technology into crypto market analysis and execution. The automation and sophistication of market analysis via AI can boost trader efficiency and uncover new investment opportunities. Within the AVAX ecosystem, the adoption of AI-driven analytics tools and trading bots could invigorate trader activity and increase AVAX utilization. Future potential includes AI agents executing trades directly on AVAX, possibly introducing new liquidity dynamics. ・Ethereum's PeerDAS Could Be Key to L2 Scaling: Vitalik Buterin Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin's emphasis on Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS) as critical for L2 scaling signals significant progress in addressing Ethereum's scalability issues. PeerDAS enables nodes to verify data availability without downloading entire blockchain data, potentially improving transaction throughput and reducing fees. This enhances the attractiveness of Ethereum and its L2 solutions relative to other L1 blockchains like AVAX. A key consideration for the AVAX ecosystem is the potential migration of capital and developers toward Ethereum L2 solutions. ・Circle Partners with Crossmint to Expand Stablecoin Rails for Humans and AI Circle's partnership with Crossmint aims to extend the utility of USDC across both human and AI agent interactions, accelerating the diversification of stablecoin use cases and their integration into the Web3 ecosystem. Autonomous payments executed by AI agents have the potential to transform future financial transactions. Similar use cases, involving AI agents making payments via USDC, could emerge on the AVAX platform, fostering new transaction flows and integration opportunities within the AVAX ecosystem. 【Overall Summary】 Overall, regulatory engagement with cryptocurrencies is intensifying (e.g., Ohio's payment approval, Australian legislation, EU's MiCA-compliant stablecoin development), yet market volatility remains evident (major ETH liquidation, slowing Bitcoin ETF inflows). Advancements in AI technology (Nansen's AI agent, Circle and Crossmint partnership) point towards expanding future use cases, and progress in Ethereum's scaling solutions like PeerDAS could enhance the competitiveness of the broader ecosystem. These factors collectively suggest that balancing regulation, market sentiment, and technological innovation is crucial for shaping the long-term growth potential of the altcoin market, including AVAX.

Significant ETH liquidations and slowing inflows into Bitcoin ETFs pose a downside risk to the broader market. Circle's consideration of USDC's potential revocation risks deviating from decentralization principles. Tightening regulations in Australia also represent an uncertainty factor. Key support is near the current price of $29, but further downside risks warrant caution.

In the short term (24-48 hours), a minor rebound might be anticipated from the oversold RSI levels, although this is highly dependent on the price movements of BTC and ETH. Over the medium term (1 week), positive catalysts like growth in Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) could potentially support prices, provided there is a recovery in overall market sentiment. Key catalysts to monitor are the stabilization of Bitcoin and the market impact of Ethereum.

AVAX is currently exhibiting oversold conditions, indicated by an RSI of 28.9, and faces headwinds from ETH liquidations and a slowdown in BTC ETF inflows. However, fundamental catalysts including Ohio's approval of crypto payments, record-breaking DEX activity, and regulatory clarity in Europe point towards long-term growth potential. Despite short-term bearish pressures, the strength of medium-to-long-term positive factors leads us to maintain a 'Neutral' market bias. We recommend accumulating positions via Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) around the current levels near $29 or at approximately $25. Take-profit targets are set at $36, followed by $40. A stop-loss should be implemented if the price breaks below $25. Stabilization of BTC and ETH prices is a key focus for this week. As part of risk management, continuous monitoring of market sentiment and regulatory developments is advised. It is crucial to construct positions with a long-term perspective, refraining from being swayed by short-term volatility. Consider this consolidation period an opportunity to accumulate for future rallies, approaching the market with a disciplined and rational strategy.